Four years ago a used Birkin 25 resold for about two and a half times what Hermès charged for it. Bernstein now has that at roughly 1.7 times. Still a premium. Just a much smaller one, and that gap is part of how Hermès sells its bags. This is Fashion Business Daily for Sunday, October 25. Three stories today. Adidas's preliminary numbers show a record quarter at the same time Nike is shrinking. Reuters finds Birkin resale prices falling as more bags turn up secondhand. And Puck reports that Martine Rose has signed to take over Balenciaga. Kering hasn't confirmed that, and we'll be clear about what's known.
Mike Sykes, in his Kicks You Wear newsletter for The Business of Fashion:
It’s now projecting currency-neutral revenue growth to fall somewhere between 9 percent and 10 percent on the year, which would bring the company to $30 billion in revenue for the first time in its history.
Adidas released these preliminary numbers on Tuesday, October 20, and the luxury results crowded them out of our week. Inside Retail has the figures. Third-quarter revenue was a record 7.3 billion euros, up 9 percent, and operating income was 1 billion euros, up 37 percent, the best quarter Adidas has ever had. It raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 2.5 billion euros. All of that is company-reported and preliminary. The full report and the call come next week. Then look at Nike. Inside Retail puts its latest quarter down 4 percent at 11.2 billion dollars, and on October 21 we covered Converse falling 28 percent. That's a 13-point gap between Adidas and the market leader. Profit is the more important number. BXTData, a Chinese retail-data firm, divides 1 billion by 7.3 billion and gets a margin near 14 percent. That's their calculation, not a figure Adidas has reported. Their view is that the gain comes from selling at full price, with fewer markdowns late in the season. Bjørn Gulden called the lifestyle environment challenging but said Adidas has stayed disciplined on pricing and on where its product is sold. That works while the shoes keep selling. Sykes says the Samba has slowed and Adidas needs its next big thing. Barney Stacher of Retail OCD put it well to Inside Retail: nostalgia can get a shopper through the door, but you still need something new for them to buy. Terrace sneakers have been carrying the brand for a while now. Here's the longer view. Morgan Stanley added up sales for the top 20 sportswear companies. In 2025 Nike had 25 percent of the total, or 30 percent with Jordan, and Adidas had 19. In 2015 those shares were 33 and 23. Both lost ground to challengers, and Adidas lost much less. And the challengers are still coming. Asics wants more of North America, New Balance is aiming to be a 10 billion dollar brand, and Puma wants to grow again next year. Gulden's reward for a record year is more competition. Next week's call will show whether the margin held up across regions or came mostly from one franchise.
From Reuters, in a report carried by The Business Times:
Brokerage Bernstein, which tracks individual auction results, said in a September note that the resale price on Birkin 25 bags averaged about 1.7 times the retail tag in the third quarter, down from about 2.6 times at their 2022 peak.
Reuters filed this before Hermès reported on Thursday. It spoke to nine Birkin resellers in the US, Europe and Asia. Six said resale prices had fallen over the past year as more bags became available, and five said demand had softened. Antoinette Hunter of Lilac Blue says an unworn black Birkin 25 has lost around 4,000 pounds since 2022 and now sells for about 24,000. A London sales assistant told Reuters Hermès charges 9,390 pounds for the same bag. So a used one still sells for more than double the boutique price, and the resellers are worried. It's a tough business. For them it is. Their margin comes from that gap, and the gap also matters to Hermès. Six resellers told Reuters that the chance to buy a Birkin generally depends on spending on scarves, clothes and shoes first. Two put that at 10,000 to 20,000 dollars. Hermès doesn't disclose its selling policies and declined to comment. When buying a Birkin meant an easy profit, all that extra spending made sense. Then the results came out. Analysts told Reuters that weaker sales of clothing, scarves and perfume meant fewer customers were doing the qualifying purchases. On Thursday Hermès reported leather goods up 10.8 percent and ready-to-wear and accessories down 2. That fits the story. There's more supply, too. Fashionphile says its Birkin listings have grown 32 times in 15 years. Hermès opens about one new workshop a year. UBS cut the stock to sell earlier this month, which we covered on October 5, and estimated that six to seven times as many of these bags are listed for sale as before the pandemic. Resale price is the most honest measure of how much people want a brand. When it falls, the brand is cooling, whatever the adverts say. There's another view. Fashionphile founder Sarah Davis says prices on her platform have held firm and even risen a little this year, partly thanks to attention from Erling Haaland's handbag collection. In July, CEO Axel Dumas said output depends mostly on trained artisans and good leather. Reuters notes the shares have lost nearly 40 percent this year.
New Wave magazine, summarizing a report from Puck:
According to Puck, Rose has signed a deal to take over the Parisian fashion house, although Kering declined to comment and Rose had not publicly confirmed the appointment at the time of reporting.
To be clear about the sourcing, this is one outlet's reporting, picked up by Ebony on Friday and by New Wave since. It is not an announcement. On October 22, Kering finance chief Armelle Poulou called reports that Pierpaolo Piccioli was leaving Balenciaga a rumour. Until Kering or Rose confirms it, it's a report. A well-sourced report, though, and an obvious fit. Demna brought Rose into Balenciaga in 2015, and she spent three years consulting on menswear there. The oversized tailoring and the twisted sportswear came partly from her. She's run her own London label since 2007 and has done collaborations with Nike, Clarks and Supreme. And the timing for Piccioli. He was appointed in May 2025 and showed his first collection that October, about a year ago. One year. Kering is changing designers at Saint Laurent, McQueen and now possibly Balenciaga, and the last man in barely got a full product cycle. That treats a creative director as a line manager. Kering doesn't publish Balenciaga's sales on their own, so there's no clean way to measure Piccioli. Balenciaga sits in Other Houses, which did 2.9 billion euros in 2025, down 6 percent comparable. That unit's recurring operating loss widened to 112 million from 9 million, and Kering blamed Balenciaga and McQueen in part. In the fourth quarter, though, Balenciaga's own stores turned positive, led by leather goods. So it was just starting to recover. One more thing. New Wave notes reports in March that production of Rose's autumn-winter 2026 collection was cancelled because of problems in her business. A house as big as Balenciaga would give her a lot of resources. Kering also says a Saint Laurent designer will be named very shortly and that McQueen's has been chosen. Several confirmations should come soon, and we'll report each one when it's official.
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Watch the Adidas call next week. Shoes at full price are the story there. And for Balenciaga, we're waiting on Kering. Fashion Business Daily is a Lantern Podcast. We'll be back tomorrow, Monday.