Five thousand one hundred and twenty-six. Or five thousand three hundred and seventy-six. Two death tolls for one outbreak, and this morning we know a little more about why they don't agree. This is Ebola Watch, and today is Wednesday, November 4th. Up first, what Europe's disease agency says about those 314 deaths from Ituri, plus Congo's weekly read on whether cases are slowing. After that, Kenya and Uganda, and what it costs a country to tell the world it has an outbreak.
From the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, in its update published Tuesday:
Following data harmonisation, the 31 October situation report added 314 deaths to the cumulative totals. These deaths were reported to be from Ituri and were not reflected in the subsequent reports of 1 November and 2 November 2026.
Translate that for me. Are those deaths in the count or not? According to ECDC, not in the two latest reports. So ECDC's running total of 10,532 confirmed cases and 5,126 deaths, with data through Sunday, leaves those 314 out. ECDC doesn't say why, and in what we've read Congo hasn't explained it either. So where does the higher number come from? From Africa CDC. Clinical Observer reports that Africa CDC gave AFP a figure of 5,376 deaths among 10,444 confirmed cases as of Monday, with 5,372 of those deaths in Congo. UA News notes Africa CDC didn't say whether that covers only laboratory-confirmed deaths, and that the U.S. CDC had 5,107 as of October 31st. Three agencies, three totals. So what actually happened this week? The November 2nd report had 65 new confirmed cases and 23 new deaths. Thirty-nine of those cases were in North Kivu, ahead of Ituri's 19, and seven were in Haut-Uélé. ECDC puts contact follow-up at 84 percent. Congo's own figure for Saturday was 86.6, and the target is 95. So tracing is slipping. Is anything moving the right way? Maybe, and only slightly. Opinion Info reports on Congo's weekly coordination meeting, held Tuesday. There the public health institute said the week of October 25th to 31st had 505 new confirmed cases and 262 deaths. That's about 4 percent fewer cases than the week before, and deaths fell from roughly 280. Four percent. I'm not calling that a turnaround. Neither am I. It's one week, from data that's still being harmonised, and ECDC's own assessment is that the outbreak is likely larger than what's reported. If I'm in Europe with family out there, what does ECDC say about my risk? For people from the EU living in or visiting affected areas, ECDC rates the likelihood of infection as low. For people living in Europe, very low. It also says arrival screening wouldn't effectively stop the virus getting in, and puts the priority on telling travellers which symptoms to watch for after they get home.
Hilary Kimuyu, Nairobi correspondent for Nation Media Group, in an analysis for The EastAfrican:
However, if governments conclude that reporting an outbreak will automatically trigger travel bans, economic losses and diplomatic repercussions, they may face pressure to delay announcements or disclose less information than is needed.
So punish the country that reports, and the next one keeps quiet. That's his argument. And his list goes beyond the Saudi measures we covered yesterday. Since November 1st, Madagascar has restricted anyone who stayed in or passed through Kenya, Nigeria or Congo in the previous 21 days, though some can still enter under quarantine. Kuwait has aviation restrictions on travellers from Kenya. El Salvador has declared travellers from eight African countries inadmissible, Kenya and Uganda among them. And Washington? A Level 3 advisory since October 19th, telling Americans to reconsider travel to Kenya. Kimuyu stresses that's advice, not a ban, and that many of these rules turn on where you've been, not your passport. Where's WHO in all this? In its October 23rd outbreak update, WHO advised against any restriction of travel to, or trade with, affected countries. Under Article 43 of the International Health Regulations, a country imposing major measures owes WHO its public health rationale. But WHO can't make anyone lift them. So Kenya can object, and that's about where it ends. Uganda's on the other side of this, though. It's the one keeping a border shut. Right. Since October 25th, Uganda has limited crossings from Congo to screened essential personnel, such as aid workers and truck drivers. On Tuesday, The Lens Reports says, Parliament's foreign affairs committee visited the Chanika and Bunagana border posts in Kisoro District. Its chair, Grace Freedom Kwiyucwiny, urged local leaders to seek relief for residents rather than an immediate reopening, while the government assesses the situation in Congo. And the people who make a living at that crossing? Bunagana's mayor, Ismail Ndayambaje, still argues that reopening is the most practical answer, because residents are struggling to earn anything. It's the same tension Kimuyu describes, playing out at district level. Bottom line for anyone travelling? Check your destination's own rules on Kenya and Uganda travel history, because they vary widely. For flights into the U.S., the CDC attestation that took effect Tuesday night asks only about Congo.
One request before we go. If Ebola Watch has made a confusing number a little easier to follow, please leave a rating or a short review in your podcast app. Reviews are how someone planning a trip this month finds a briefing like this one.
We're back tomorrow, Thursday, November 5th. We'll be looking for any explanation from Congo of those 314 deaths, and for confirmation from Kenya of this week's discharges. You've been listening to Ebola Watch, part of the Lantern Podcasts family. Check the date on every number you see, and we'll talk tomorrow.