Two Wall Street buy notes in 48 hours on a stock that's down 33% from its peak — and both of them just happen to land during Starship launch week. Quick reset if you're just joining: SpaceX's move into public markets has already gone from 'can I get clean exposure?' to 'what's this thing actually worth?' Retail started with tokenized and equity-linked products; after the IPO, the focus moved to the pullback and the first Wall Street notes — including Evercore's Outperform rating and $230 target. This is SpaceX IPO Watch — UBS says we're back at IPO level, Evercore says Outperform, and there's a live DoD launch on the pad. Whose read survives the arithmetic? We're staying on SpaceX public listing — follow the show and you won't miss what comes next. Here's Ivan Lapshin at Oninvest:
The latest—13th in a row—test of the Starship heavy-lift rocket by Elon Musk’s space company SpaceX could be a positive factor for its stock if it goes according to plan, according to UBS analysts. The launch is scheduled for Thursday, July 16. The mission is expected to validate the key technologies necessary to increase the pace of launches and implement the company’s long-term strategy, according to Switzerland’s largest bank.
UBS is out with a buy note this morning, and the framing is what gets me: they say the stock has 'returned to its IPO level.' Which level? The IPO priced at $135, debuted at $150, and peaked at $225. So 'IPO level' becomes a floor when it's convenient and an anchor when it's not. Or — and hear me out — down 33% from peak is just an entry point. The institutional floor is arriving right as the paper hands are selling. That's the whole trade. That's the callback, though — the post-listing arc, with UBS betting Flight 13 today resets the whole thing. But look at what's actually in their model: four commercial launches this year, 1,588 flights by 2031. A test launch supports a 2031 number? That's a slide-deck promise with a timestamp on it. Eh, the launch also carries Starlink V3 birds — revenue line plus fireworks. Parsons isn't buying the rocket; he's buying the cadence the rocket unlocks. Here's Pras Subramanian at Yahoo Finance:
But investment bank Evercore ISI is betting the sell-off is overdone. On Tuesday, the firm initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, implying roughly 65% upside from the stock's close of $139.14.
Evercore initiates Outperform, $230 target — that's 65% upside from a $139 close. And the note lands the same week as Flight 13. Independent Wall Street coverage clustering right before a hardware catalyst? That's usually smart money getting set. Or it's how banks time a note to a launch. We covered UBS at the top of the show — that's two banks in 48 hours, both tied to Thursday's rocket. And here's my problem with the $230: the analyst calls SpaceX 'an extraordinary company on a real path.' Fine. But the stock's down 38% from its peak of $225.64, and Morningstar's DCF has been sitting at $63 all week. Somebody's model is wrong by a factor of three. Or the DCF is running legacy aerospace cost assumptions on a company that just flew its second Version 3. For Evercore, I want to know if that $230 actually prices the cost curve, or if it's hand-waving the Starship upside. The same Version 3 whose booster got lost in May — heat damage on separation, engines wouldn't reignite. Second flight of the design is Thursday. That's the catalyst everyone's underwriting. From Mevlut Zor at Aero Haber:
The Space Development Agency is set to launch its third batch of operational satellites designed to improve secure communications between members of the U.S. military and its allies across the globe aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from California. Liftoff of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base is scheduled for 1:32 p.m. PDT (4:32 p.m. EDT / 2032 UTC).
So while UBS and Evercore are out here writing love letters this week, there's a Falcon 9 on the pad at Vandenberg with 21 Space Development Agency birds on top — the third operational batch of the Tranche 1 Transport Layer. This is the thesis happening in real time. DoD is stacking national-security comms on SpaceX's launch cadence while the stock trades at IPO-day levels. That's the moat you can actually watch launch. Right — but notice which layer we're talking about. The Transport Layer: communications. SpaceX is the launch vehicle here, not the satellite prime. The birds aren't theirs. Which matters, because yesterday's SDA prime award went to L3Harris and Sierra Space. SpaceX flies the payload; it doesn't own the program. If Evercore's $230 model is blurring launch revenue into program revenue, I'd want that line-itemed. Sure, they don't build the satellite. But nobody else can put 21 sovereign-critical payloads in orbit on this schedule. Being the indispensable launch layer is a real position, Cassidy — that's revenue that recurs every tranche. Recurs from one customer wearing a government badge. That's the concentration line I keep drawing. A live DoD mission on the pad the same morning two banks publish buy notes — I'd love to know if either model actually stress-tests government dependency, or just counts the manifests. This one's from The Motley Fool:
There's a strong case to be made that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.24%), better known as SpaceX, is the most hyped initial public offering (IPO) of all time. It raised a record $75 billion during its IPO, hitting the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion -- making it one of the world's most valuable companies.
So here's the number that finally shows up in this week's coverage: $75 billion raised, $1.77 trillion valuation at listing. The Motley Fool leads with 'millionaire maker' and buries the arithmetic that actually matters. Their whole framing is: how much can you put in, and how long can you sit? Fine. But put that $75 billion raise next to a stock down 33% from peak, and you can start asking who sold near $225. Cass, you and I read the exact same paragraph and land in different galaxies. They're comparing Musk to the Tesla run — and yeah, the people who waited for that IPO to feel safe caught the boring part. The Tesla-millionaire comparison actually cuts my way here. The upside came from holding through the ugly stretches. A 33% drawdown from peak two weeks post-listing is exactly that kind of stretch — for me, it's where you buy instead of run. Except Tesla wasn't sitting against a $63 DCF that's gone unrebutted all week. 'Time in the market' only works if intrinsic value can support the price. Name me the revenue line that closes a gap that wide. Starlink and Starship — same two engines this piece dances around. And today they're stacking DoD payloads onto that cadence. That's the compounding bet this article is quietly making over that timeframe. If you're tracking SpaceX's path into the public markets, try The Data Center Daily — a daily briefing on AI compute, hyperscaler capex, power, chips, and the energy markets being reshaped by intelligence at scale. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts.
What we're watching next: Starship Flight 13 is scheduled for today, Thursday, July 16, with UBS tracking the key capabilities tied to future launch cadence. SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch for the Space Development Agency is set for 1:32 p.m. Pacific from Vandenberg Space Force Base.
You'll find links to every story we covered in the show notes if you want to dig into the ones that stood out. That's SpaceX IPO Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.