A named analyst firm just put $63 a share on SpaceX — a 53% discount to the IPO price. And they're calling it math, not skepticism. If you're just joining: SpaceX's path has moved out of the secondary market and tokenized-equity wrappers, and into actual SEC filing activity. So public-market investors are now picking apart price, proceeds, and governance — not just arguing over private valuations. Before this, the wrinkle was demand for synthetic exposure: tokenized SpaceX trading reportedly surged, while shareholder-rights and governance questions were still hanging there. This is SpaceX IPO Watch — today Morningstar gives us a number, PitchBook lumps three companies into one record, and Cassidy and I don't agree on what either one means. Let's get into it. If you want to keep up with SpaceX public listing, tap follow so the next episode lands in your feed. Crypto Briefing writes:
There are big IPOs, and then there is whatever is about to happen in 2026. According to PitchBook analysis, the anticipated public listings of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX could collectively produce an exit value that exceeds the total from every US venture-backed IPO since 2000.
PitchBook is putting SpaceX in a bucket with OpenAI and Anthropic — three listings that together could top every US venture-backed IPO since 2000. Twenty-five years, one cycle. It's a great line for a slide deck. But look at what it flattens — Starlink did eleven-point-four billion in disclosed revenue. Anthropic and OpenAI are still largely pre-revenue at scale. Treating all three like interchangeable supply misleads whoever's pricing this. That's exactly where I get off the bus, Cassidy. Grouping them as one exit event is fine for the VC-record headline, but SpaceX has actual sovereign-critical hardware in orbit generating cash. That's a different animal from a foundation model. Agreed, and the number underneath the confetti is 555.6 million shares at 135 dollars, implying a 1.77 trillion-dollar valuation. That's the ask. Whether the business supports it matters more than whether it breaks a 25-year record. And the record framing actually helps SpaceX bulls in one way — you can't drain two-thirds of the IPO market with three names and call it a normal cycle. When supply is this concentrated, every opening price on the tape gets distorted. From The Motley Fool:
When SpaceX (SPCX+1.70%) was preparing for its IPO, Morningstar analysts warned investors that the best buying opportunity may not occur immediately. "We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO price," the firm stressed. "Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism, reflecting a wide range of possible outcomes for the company's financial future."
Here it is in print — Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 a share, a 53% discount to the $135 IPO price. And listen to the framing: their words, 'mathematics more than skepticism.' That phrase matters. This is a named-shop DCF, not some bear waving his arms, and it lands squarely below the ask — exactly the gap I've been pointing at on the secondary side for months. And I love that the headline says your money could multiply while the body is a Morningstar warning to pass on the IPO. Classic Motley Fool bait-and-body. But here's my problem with a $63 DCF — it prices a company whose cost curve is still compressing. Starlink's building antennas at four bucks a watt against a nine-dollar industry average. Discounted cash flow math never knows what to do with a moat that's still getting cheaper. Or the cost curve flattens and the model's right. That's exactly what 'a wide range of possible outcomes' means — Morningstar is pricing the uncertainty you're waving off, Eric. Fair. But look at the actual tape — SPCX up 1.70% today, trading around $151. It corrected off the $225 highs and it never touched that $135 IPO price. The discount Morningstar promised patient buyers? Never fully showed up. If you’re tracking SpaceX’s path to the public markets, you may also like Startup Fundraising. It’s a daily look at AI startup funding rounds — from seed and Series A deals to new VC funds and notable founders — for operators tracking who just raised. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts.
We’ve put links to every story from today’s briefing in the show notes, so if one story caught your ear, you can follow it there and read further.
That’s SpaceX IPO Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.