A Montana independent's biggest backer turns out to be a dark money group that's funding independents all over the map. So much for grassroots. This is Senate Pickup Watch. Today: who's really paying for Bankhead in Montana, an actual independent poll out of Kansas, and a DSCC war message that may be aimed at exactly the wrong voters. Independent Record, with Sonny Tapia:
The chief financier of a political committee that dumped millions into Montana’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and catapulted the winner from obscurity to nominee is a dark money group that has supported efforts to elevate independent challenger Seth Bodnar.
So we finally have the FEC paperwork on Bankhead, and it's ugly. A Delaware outfit called Contours put up roughly 2.6 million of the 3 million Progressive Vet PAC spent to make her the nominee. You've got a candidate with no political track record and few ties to Montana, and almost all that money hits the PAC account in May while they're carpet-bombing voters with texts. At that point, you're basically buying a nomination. Here's the part that lights me up, though — that same dark money group has been propping up Seth Bodnar's independent run. Same financier, two different vehicles, one state. I've been arguing these independent candidacies point to real suppressed voter appetite. This complicates that. When one Delaware checkbook is funding both a manufactured Democrat and an independent, you have to ask whether some of that appetite is being amplified from outside, not bubbling up. Put that next to Osborn in Nebraska. His whole case rests on whether his in-state donor base actually grew. Bankhead's case is a wire transfer from a Delaware post office box. From Wichita Eagle:
But a new poll commissioned by the Capitol Bee political news outlet and conducted by Change Research surveyed 1,022 likely Democratic voters on their preferences. It suggests that Overland Park Sen. Cindy Holscher holds a decisive lead, despite the fact that 55% of people who responded to the poll from June 11-15 reported being undecided.
Finally, an independent number in Kansas. All three Democrats in the governor's race have been waving internal data claiming the lead — and surprise, internals always say you're up. This one's commissioned by Capitol Bee, run by Change Research — Holscher at 31, pushed to 37 when you press the leaners. Corson's at 8, Skoog at 5. Among the people who've actually tuned in, she's basically lapping the field. Except read the next line — 55% undecided. So the headline says decisive lead, but more than half the electorate hasn't even joined the conversation yet. And in a low-turnout Kansas Democratic primary, that undecided bloc is exactly where I'd stop trusting a topline. The pollster basically says it himself — up among those who have an opinion. Right, but Skoog filed June 1, deadline day, and he's polling at 5. A late entry with no runway and no number — that tells me everything about how serious that bid is. From DSCC:
“Inflation is at a 3-year high due to the war in Iran and it’s painful for middle-class and moderate-income Americans People are spending more on gas, along with healthcare and utilities”
So the DSCC's lead message is Iran-driven inflation, and they're running it everywhere. Here's my problem — a cost-of-living attack tied to a war in Iran doesn't land the same in a Great Plains working-class district as it does in a Philly suburb. Right, this is the trap. You're leading with a Washington war message in states where the whole brand of your best candidates is that they're not Washington. And it's one message for very different electorates. Montana, Nebraska, Kansas — the DSCC's treating them like one audience you can move with the same argument. You can't. "Earn more." "Be patriots." They've got the GOP quotes lined up, sure. But a press release isn't a precinct. This tells me nothing about whether anyone in Kansas is actually persuaded. Pair it with the FEC piece we just hit — Bankhead propped up by a national dark money network. You've got outside money picking the candidates and a national committee writing the script. Where's the local in any of that? If Senate Pickup Watch is part of your routine, take a moment to subscribe or leave a review wherever you’re listening. It’s a simple way to support the show and help other people find us.
We’ve put links to every story we touched on today in the show notes, so if one caught your ear, you can dig into the original reporting there.
That’s Senate Pickup Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.