Eight months into this war, the people whose whole job is counting Iran's uranium are telling governments they can't say where all of it is. And they can't even say where one of the plants is. Welcome to Iran War Daily. I'm Sarah, Rich is here too, and it's Saturday, November 14. On the rundown: the UN nuclear watchdog's new confidential report, three more tankers Iran says struck mines in Hormuz, and a sharp exchange between Iran and Bahrain at the Security Council.
The Times of Israel, drawing on agency reporting:
Because of a lack of cooperation from Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) “is not able to conclude that there has been no diversion of declared nuclear material from peaceful nuclear activities in Iran,” the report said.
Media outlets saw that report on Friday, and the IAEA board is due to discuss it next week. The sharpest line is about Isfahan. Iran declared a new enrichment plant there last year, and the agency writes that it "does not know IFEP's exact location, status for safeguards purposes, or whether it contains nuclear material." So the plant is on paper and nobody outside Iran knows where it is. Before the June 2025 strikes the IAEA put Iran's stock of sixty percent uranium at about four hundred and forty kilograms. That's close to weapons grade, and it's still unaccounted for. The report also lays out Tehran's position, from letters exchanged in recent weeks. Iran says inspections can't resume amid what it calls persistent public threats by President Trump to strike again, particularly at its nuclear sites. It also complained about the US reward of up to twenty million dollars for information on its program. Now put that next to Washington. The New York Times reads the White House as settling into a waiting game, saying it no longer needs a new nuclear agreement. Yet on Friday Marco Rubio, speaking to the Federalist Society, said a nuclear-armed Iran "would hold the entire region hostage." Those two positions only fit together if someone can see inside Iran's program, and the agency that's supposed to do that is saying, in writing, that it can't. ABC News, citing senior US officials, reports Trump expects to raise Iran with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at a three-way meeting in Shenzhen next week,, with nuclear disarmament the main agenda item.
Al Jazeera, on Friday's Security Council briefing by the UN's Khaled Khiari:
“This situation cannot be allowed to become the new normal,” said Khiari, urging the “full restoration of maritime navigation in the region”.
Khiari is the UN assistant secretary-general for the Middle East. He told the Council at least twenty-five seafarers have been killed in and around the strait since the war began, counting through November 11. The International Maritime Organization counts thirty-five incidents in October and ten so far in November. And then early Saturday, three more. Iran's state broadcaster carried a Revolutionary Guard navy statement saying two tankers that had switched off their radar and positioning systems hit a naval mine on what it calls an unauthorised route, and caught fire. Iran's regular navy says a third tanker east of the strait struck a mine and was forced to stop. CNA notes the statements named no ships. Iran International says the navy's account couldn't be independently verified. And the US military maintains it has cleared the main routes of mines and that the waterway is open. The navy's warning was blunt: any offending tanker in the restricted zone "will be set on fire by hitting naval mines." That's not an accident report. That's a toll notice. And the traffic numbers back it up. UKMTO, the British maritime agency, puts Hormuz shipping about sixty-five percent below pre-war levels. Khiari also warned the disruptions are driving up energy, transport and insurance costs and threatening food security.
Middle East Eye, from the same Security Council session:
“Any renewed war of aggression by the United States and the Israeli regime will be met with an immediate and decisive response, without hesitation,” said Gholamhossein Darzi, Iran's deputy permanent representative to the UN, during a Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East.
"Without hesitation." Trump said "no hesitation" to Hugh Hewitt earlier this week. Everyone's borrowing lines. Darzi also accused Gulf states of letting their territory be used for US and Israeli attacks, and singled out Bahrain. Bahrain rejected that, and said Tehran can't invoke self-defence to justify attacking its neighbours. Iran International reports the Gulf states told the Council that Iran has launched more than seven thousand missiles and drones at them since February. Which brings us back to the claim we reported on Friday, the Revolutionary Guard saying it hit a US early-warning radar in Bahrain. Washington has now answered. According to Iran International, US Central Command rejected the radar claim and said American forces shot down two Iranian attack drones, with no injuries or damage. So on Bahrain we now have an Iranian claim of a hit and an American account of an interception, and neither has been independently confirmed. So both sides agree something flew at Bahrain. They only disagree on whether it landed. Next week the setting moves to Asia. Reuters reports Trump and the other Quad leaders from Japan, Australia and India are expected to discuss shipping security and energy supplies in Manila on Tuesday, before the Shenzhen meeting.
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So, to sum up: an enrichment plant no inspector can locate, a strait still running at a third of normal traffic, and two capitals with different stories about the same drones over Bahrain. And a president flying to Asia with Iran on his list. Our next episode is Monday, November 16, with an eye on the IAEA board and Trump's Asia trip. Every source is linked in the episode notes. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast. Thanks for listening.