On Wednesday the story was that JD Vance might sit down with Iran's top security official. By Thursday, his boss had told him to find something else to do. Then he threatened new strikes, and said the Gulf talked him out of them.This is Iran War Daily, I'm Sarah, with Rich, and it's Friday, November 13. Three stories: Trump's post saying America doesn't need a deal, the back-and-forth over whether the bombing resumes, and more tankers that Iran says exploded in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kate Sullivan of Bloomberg News, carried by the New Hampshire Union Leader:
President Donald Trump said the U.S. doesn’t need a deal with Iran and instructed Vice President JD Vance to focus on domestic issues rather than negotiations with Tehran.
That was a Thursday post. Yesterday we covered the Wall Street Journal's report that Vance might talk directly with Mohsen Rezaei. Now Trump writes: "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed." And the rest of it: "We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" So the blockade isn't leverage for a deal anymore. In his telling, it is the deal. Vance gets reassigned to what Trump calls corruption and crime in Democrat-run cities. Bloomberg flags the tension. Preventing an Iranian bomb was a central war aim, and without a new agreement it's unclear how Washington would enforce limits on Tehran's nuclear work. There's an American version of the impasse too. An unnamed US source told Israel's Kan broadcaster that "the Iranians overdid their demands." And on Thursday Basij chief Hossein Taeb repeated that Iran sets the format and agenda of any talks only after its seven conditions are met. So the post doesn't formally end diplomacy. It tells us who isn't running it, and that the White House is content to wait.
Al Jazeera's live coverage, from Enes Abuomer and Mahmoud Sayed:
US President Donald Trump said Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf countries had asked him to hold off on further large-scale attacks on Iran. He claimed the US could destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure, bridges and manufacturing facilities within three days.
Al Jazeera says that came just hours after he'd said he wouldn't hesitate to launch new strikes. Speaking to Hugh Hewitt on the Salem News Channel, Trump was asked about using force to stop Iran threatening US allies and shipping: "No hesitation." Asked what happens if Iran kills an official like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, he said: "They will not exist any longer." No hesitation, then a pause because the neighbours asked. Meanwhile Kan reported that Central Command told Israeli military representatives in the US to prepare for a possible resumption soon, with similar messages to Gulf states. CENTCOM disputes that. An official told Anadolu there's no change to US force posture in the region and called the report "pure speculation", Middle East Eye reports. So we have an Israeli report sourced to US officials and an on-record American denial. And the shooting didn't wait. Iran's state agency IRNA says the port city of Sirik, in Hormozgan province, was hit by "enemy fire" on Thursday. The Revolutionary Guard then said, via Tasnim, that it targeted a US early-warning radar in Bahrain in response. Both of those are Iranian accounts. We've seen no independent confirmation of a hit in Bahrain, and no statement from Washington or Manama. The Guard warned it would "engage without limits" if what it calls aerial provocations recur. And Israel's caretaker defence minister, Israel Katz, says the outgoing government needs no approval from the opposition or any legal authority to launch new operations.
AFP, carried by Arab News Japan, quoting a Revolutionary Guard statement:
“These two supertankers were carrying a combined total of over four million barrels of oil, which are now ablaze — a consequence of the blind trust placed in the aggressive American military,” the statement said.
The Guard navy says the two tankers were hit by a "violent explosion" late Wednesday on the southern route through the strait, which Tehran bans. It called it an "accident" and didn't name the ships. Later on Thursday, Iran's army said two more tankers east of the strait hit a naval mine and caught fire. An "accident" that Iran announces, explains and uses as a warning to everyone else. And this morning, the Guard navy said a liquefied gas carrier hit a mine east of the strait and exploded. Reuters says it couldn't verify the Iranian accounts. AFP notes the US military recently said all mines had been cleared from the strait. The Washington Institute counts at least ten ships hit in the first ten days of November, after thirty-seven in October. And the bypass is under fire too. Saudi Arabia has rerouted about four million barrels a day through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu. On Thursday the Houthis claimed attacks on a pumping station on that pipeline and on a Yanbu oil facility; the coalition says it downed two drones. Despite all that, the market is calm. Reuters had Brent at about ninety-five forty early Friday, on course for a weekly drop of roughly two and a half percent after a sixteen percent slide the week before. Traders read Trump's post as a sign he'll stick with the blockade rather than return to heavy fighting. One broker told Reuters the market is "priced to perfection." Cheaper oil is a bet that this stays a blockade war. It doesn't make the strait any safer for the crews.
Before we go: if a story we ran this week left you with a question we didn't answer, or a source you think we should be reading, write to iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com. Your notes shape what we chase next.
No deal needed, no hesitation, then a pause. And four million barrels burning, if you take the Guard's word for it. We'll pick it up on Monday, with an eye on whether anyone ends up running talks with Tehran and on whether CENTCOM's denial holds through the weekend. Sources for every story are in the episode notes. Iran War Daily comes to you from Lantern Podcasts. Have a safe weekend.