With Vance reportedly weighing Iran talks, where does Israel's order to prepare an attack leave diplomacy? New to this story? Here's where it stands. The June interim deal unravelled, leaving US-Iran diplomacy stalled while Qatar and Pakistan mediated a plan linking blockade relief and frozen funds to reopening Hormuz and nuclear talks. After meeting Qatar’s prime minister, Trump cited positive momentum. Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei disputed that negotiations were happening and said Hormuz would stay shut until Washington met Iran’s seven conditions. This is Iran War Daily. Ghalibaf says no 'excessive demands'—where does that leave room for a deal? First, that report on Vance.
The Times of Israel, with Lazar Berman and Jacob Magid:
US Vice President JD Vance is weighing direct talks with a top Iranian security official, according to a report on Wednesday that said President Donald Trump empowered him to resume negotiations on ending a war they have cited as a key reason for the Republicans’ steep losses in the midterm elections. But Mohsen Rezaei, secretary-general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said earlier Tuesday that there are no plans to meet Vance.
Vance helped negotiate June's memorandum. Now, according to US officials quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Trump privately calls it a mistake because Iran recovered and earned oil revenue—and Vance gets another turn at negotiations. Quite a brief: revive diplomacy while your boss attacks your last agreement. The stalled talks have a possible new channel after Tehran denied negotiations were underway: Vance is reportedly considering direct contact with Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top security official. But Rezaei said Tuesday there were no plans to meet him. A potential opening, with neither a meeting nor an agreement established. And Rubio and Stephen Miller favor keeping the blockade until Iran yields, according to officials cited by the Journal. If June's oil revenue is Trump's grievance, relief from that blockade looks like a very hard concession for Vance to sell in Washington. Harder still: the Times of Israel reports that Rezaei says Iran's nuclear program isn't open for discussion. Vance may get a channel. Getting both sides to accept its agenda is a separate hurdle.
Al Jazeera writes:
In an exclusive Al Jazeera interview with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, says Iran is open to a deal if the US refrains from creating distrust and excessive demands, in which he says Iran would not yield to.
Iran is open to a deal—provided Washington drops what Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calls “excessive demands.” That's a negotiating position with plenty of room to argue over the word “excessive.” Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, told Al Jazeera that the US also needs to refrain from creating distrust. The opening matters, but it's conditional: he's expressing willingness to negotiate while insisting Iran won't yield to demands it considers excessive. And “open to a deal” deserves a careful hearing, not applause. Ghalibaf is putting responsibility on Washington to change its approach; that statement alone gives us no reason to assume the two sides' positions have moved closer.
From Yashraj Sharma, Barbara Angopa and Heba Habib at Al Jazeera:
Israel has ordered its military to step up preparations for a possible attack on Iran, as Tehran warned it would expand the war beyond the region if attacked.
Al Jazeera reports Israel has ordered stepped-up preparations for a possible attack on Iran. Alongside those talks we just discussed, that order puts another very dangerous decision in play. And Tehran is warning it would widen the war beyond the region if attacked, according to Al Jazeera. Those are preparations and a conditional threat; neither establishes that a new attack on Iran has happened. “Beyond the region” leaves a lot of people wondering whether they're in the firing line. Gulf governments and shipping operators have reason to take that warning seriously, without treating Tehran's threat as a forecast. Separately, Al Jazeera reports a deadly Israeli strike on tents in Gaza and carries footage of the aftermath. People there are already suffering the violence being threatened elsewhere; their deaths deserve attention in their own right.
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Links to every story are in the show notes, so you can follow up on whichever developments you want to explore more closely. That’s Iran War Daily for today. We’ll be back tomorrow. This is a Lantern Podcast.