Qatar's prime minister is due at the White House today, and the plan he is pushing runs on a two-day clock: blockade relief, inspectors, then an open strait. Two days, after a war that started in February. And the Secretary of State has already called Tehran's demands "outrageous." I'm Sarah, alongside Rich, and this is Iran War Daily for Monday, November 9. On today's list: the two-day plan landing on Trump's desk, a drone strike that cut power to most of Iraq's Kurdish region, and an oil market betting on calm while ships keep getting hit around Hormuz. Hit follow and you won't have to come looking for the next episode.
Barak Ravid, writing in Axios:
On the first day, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade and release some of Iran's frozen funds. In return, Iran would issue an official invitation to the International Atomic Energy Agency to send inspectors to bombed nuclear sites, based on an agreement reached in Cairo a year ago, regional sources said.
On day two, under that draft, Hormuz would reopen and nuclear talks would resume, focused on Iran's highly enriched uranium. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani meets Trump today, per the president's schedule, after seeing Vice President Vance separately. Axios's sources say he wants more time for diplomacy. Listen to the two capitals on Sunday. Abbas Araghchi on X: meet the requirements, "including end to war on all fronts, and you will see results. Or choose war, and see our alert and battle-hardened Warriors rain down hell." Marco Rubio, heading to the G7 in Paris, called Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic." Israel Hayom, citing two diplomatic sources, adds a number: eight billion dollars of Iranian funds held in Qatar would be unfrozen. But it also says Tehran still won't discuss its nuclear program, which clashes with the Axios account of inspectors on day one. Neither government has published a text. Israel Hayom's source says Bessent, Lutnick, Rubio and Hegseth all oppose a deal like this, one warning it "would save the regime in Iran at the last minute." Vance is pushing the other way. So it's the vice president's channel against half the cabinet. Araghchi had said mediators stopped travelling after the "shock" of the US midterms. If today's meeting goes ahead, that pause is over.
Peter Smith, reporting for Al Jazeera from Baghdad:
Khor Mor is Iraq’s biggest gas facility, and it is the most significant part of the energy infrastructure in Iraq’s Kurdish region. The attack, which has been described as an explosives-laden drone targeting a gas storage facility, resulted in a fire.
Al Jazeera reports more than seventy percent of the Kurdish region is without power. Smith puts the lost energy capacity at seventy to eighty percent and says engineers ran to shelters fearing more strikes. No one has claimed the attack. Look at whose asset this is. Khor Mor is operated by Dana Gas, an Emirati company. One drone, and you've hit Iraqi homes, Iraqi hospitals and a Gulf investor all at once. It has happened before. After a similar drone attack last November, Kurdish authorities blamed pro-Iranian armed factions inside Iraq, and nobody has been held to account. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi promised tighter security there, and Smith says this attack embarrasses him. Hospitals are running on hydropower for now, after a weekend of flash floods that killed two people. That cost never reaches a negotiating table. Iraq also sits inside Washington's new pressure plan: Trump says the Iron Gate land blockade is now in effect. Al Jazeera draws no link between that and the drone, and neither do we.
Reuters, in its Monday oil report:
“The market appears to be pricing in a relatively optimistic scenario of de-escalation, even though a comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran has yet to materialise,” she said.
That's Sugandha Sachdeva of the New Delhi research firm SS WealthStreet. Brent was steady early Monday at about ninety-eight dollars thirty-five a barrel, after falling sixteen percent last week. Reuters calls that the steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID pandemic. Sixteen percent, on a mood. Trump said Sunday fresh strikes are "highly unlikely" if talks progress, and traders took his word for it. On the water, an unnamed Revolutionary Guard navy official told Iranian state media on Monday that what he called enemy navigational aids in the southern strait were destroyed, and no unauthorised vessel got through overnight. That's Iran's account, unconfirmed. Lloyd's List sums up the shipowner's problem: commercial vessels caught between competing US and Iranian military controls, where non-compliance risks direct attack. Washington disables a bulker for running the blockade, Tehran claims tankers hit for taking the wrong lane. Pick your rulebook and hope your insurer agrees. One more factor in that price: JPMorgan says oil is heading back toward a glut, with supply an estimated one point four million barrels a day above demand in October.
Want us to dig further into Iraq, the frozen funds, or the shipping lanes? Tell us at iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com.
A two-day plan, a blacked-out Kurdistan, and an oil market that has already priced in the happy ending. Tomorrow: what, if anything, came out of the Qatari visit. Sources are in the show notes. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast. Until tomorrow.