"Part of it was Iran." Four words from the president of the United States, on the phone with Fox News, explaining why his party just lost the midterms. And this is the Wednesday that American media had flagged as the earliest possible start for new strikes. I'm Sarah, he's Rich, and this is Iran War Daily for Wednesday, November 4. On today's show: Trump's reading of the vote and Tehran's answer to it, Iran's top security official calling Washington's reply unconvincing, and a fresh Revolutionary Guards claim of tankers burning in the strait.
CBS News, in its live coverage of the war this morning:
President Trump acknowledged on Tuesday night that the war with Iran was partially responsible for the Republicans' defeat in the midterm elections.
Some context first. The BBC reports that Democrats have taken control of Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency. In that Fox interview Trump said "part of it was Iran," but added that "people understand the importance of what I've done." The BBC says he also pointed to higher gas prices from the war. And to the Wall Street Journal he said he has no regrets: "I don't think about it. I did the right thing. I would have done it again." Tehran was quick to frame the result. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker and Iran's chief negotiator, posted on X that "Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message." He offered the cost of living or "conscience" as reasons. Then the threat: "If the U.S. govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare." A foreign government endorsing an American election result. Very relaxed, everyone. Trump also, for the first time, confirmed Monday night's strike himself. According to Al Jazeera, he told Fox the target was an anti-aircraft facility. In his words: "It took them about two months. We watched it get built. As soon as it was completed, we hit it last night." He called it a "minor attack" and said it "wasn't war." Iranian media placed the strikes on Qeshm Island. Yesterday, remember, neither government had formally confirmed anything. Now the timing question. Al Jazeera, citing US media and US officials, says Central Command prepared plans for strikes that could start as early as today, Wednesday, with three American aircraft carriers in the region. Trump's own signals are all over the place. He told the Financial Times before the vote, "We seem to be getting everything we want," and that they're not "really in a war." Asked about Netanyahu saying there'd be another attack this week, he said they were "locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no need for it." And to CBS, the war ends "when I say it ends." On Tehran's side, President Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that "No-one will benefit from this war" if fighting restarts. Ghalibaf told parliament Iran "will not surrender." And Al Jazeera notes Iranian officials have suggested European countries and undersea cables in the Gulf could be targets. That's a threat attributed to officials, not a stated plan. The political scientist John Mearsheimer put the skeptic's case in a video commentary: "If the 40-day bombing campaign didn't work, how is the three-day bombing campaign going to work?" That's the question a new Congress is going to start asking. But it doesn't get sworn in until January, so for now it's still Trump's call.
Al Jazeera staff, with Anadolu and Reuters, quoting Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, writing on X on Tuesday:
“America’s response to Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran’s seven conditions and act upon them,” he wrote on X.
He added: "Only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened." So here is where the back-and-forth stands. Yesterday we reported Ghalibaf saying Iran had delivered its own answer and the ball was in Washington's court. Now Rezaei, the man the Vance letter was addressed to, says the American reply has come back short. That's the first public read we've heard from Tehran on what Washington sent, though nobody has published the text. And then there's the story running the other way. Anadolu, citing the Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and unnamed sources, reports that the US has approved a draft memorandum Qatari mediators presented to Iran on Monday, and that Saudi Arabia and the UAE signed off too. The sources describe a swap announced at the same moment: Tehran announces a nuclear concession, Washington announces the release of part of Iran's frozen assets, and that becomes an interim deal leading back into negotiations. To be careful about that: it's one newspaper's anonymous sources, relayed by other outlets. Neither government has confirmed it, and no one has said what the nuclear concession would be or how much money would be freed. It's also hard to square with Rezaei's post on the same day. Unless both are true and they're just haggling over the order of announcements. Which, given the June memorandum fell apart within weeks, is exactly the kind of detail that breaks these things. Who goes first, who's checking, what happens to the blockade on day one. Qatar is keeping its own tone upbeat. Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said both sides "remain committed" to the process, with Doha facilitating a "real-time exchange of proposals." And CBS, citing Reuters and an official briefed on the talks, reports the mediators came up with a new suggestion and expect feedback from both negotiating teams within 36 hours. CBS says Saudi mediators are now involved alongside Qatar and Pakistan. If that clock holds, an answer of some kind could come by Thursday.
BBC News, on the Revolutionary Guards' latest claim from the strait:
Four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval sea mines, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday, a day after US officials said the US military had launched strikes on the country.
The Guards say the ships were trying to use what Iran calls a prohibited route in the southern part of the strait. The details vary by outlet. According to the BBC, citing Tasnim, two of the four were still burning and two more tankers were seized. CBS and AFP, quoting state TV, say all four "are still burning" and two other ships were "halted." The BBC says it hasn't independently verified any of it. And it's the second claim like this in two days. On Tuesday, according to Xinhua, the Guards' navy said three "violating" tankers with their tracking systems switched off hit mines and were left burning off the southern coast. Same script every time: no ship names, no owners, no crews. When we covered Bloomberg's reporting on Sunday, a US official said no ship had actually hit a floating mine in the strait. There is one independently reported incident. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre says two unidentified projectiles hit a tanker's engine room on Tuesday, about 14 nautical miles northeast of Limah on the coast of Oman. No casualties were reported. Al Jazeera says it couldn't confirm whether that ship is connected to any of the Guards' claims. The Guards also say they shot down a US-made MQ-9 drone over the strait at four-thirty this morning, local time, and called it the 56th they've downed. Anadolu has them warning they're ready to deliver a "final blow" to Israel and the United States. Projectiles in the engine room are a real cost: crews, insurance, cargo that doesn't move. A tally of 56 drones is a press release until somebody else confirms it. For the bigger picture, the strait stays closed until Iran's conditions are met, by Iran's own account, and the American blockade of Iranian ports is still in place. Rezaei tied the two together explicitly on Tuesday. Whatever is in the reported Qatari draft, the shipping lanes are where you'd see it first.
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Thirty-six hours on the Qatari clock and three carriers in the region. I'd like to know which runs out first. And I'm watching for either government to confirm, or deny, that draft memorandum. That's it for today. Iran War Daily is part of Lantern Podcasts, and we'll be back tomorrow, Thursday, November 5.