Five explosions on Qeshm Island, the largest island in the Gulf, sitting right over the Strait of Hormuz. That's what Iran's official news agency reported overnight. And American officials are calling what hit it "defensive." On the night before Election Day, no less. Welcome to Iran War Daily. Today is Tuesday, November 3, and Americans are voting in the midterms. Three stories this morning: what we know, and don't, about the US strikes on Qeshm; Iran's parliament speaker saying Tehran has formally answered Washington; and a report that Israel is pressing Lebanon's army to keep Hezbollah out of any new round. If today's show was useful, follow us wherever you're listening — the next one will be waiting.
Mahmoud Sayed, laying out the known facts in Al Jazeera's live coverage:
Iranian media have reported explosions on Qeshm Island after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have downed two US drones in the Strait of Hormuz, as US officials confirmed American military strikes on the island.
Let me separate the accounts, because they don't all come from the same place. The Revolutionary Guards say they brought down two US MQM-170 reconnaissance drones south of Qeshm and an MQ-9 east of the strait. Nobody independent has confirmed that. On the American side, a US official told the Associated Press these were "defensive" strikes after surface-to-air missile threats against US assets. Axios, citing a US official, says a US fighter jet destroyed a missile launcher after the Guards fired at an American aircraft from the island, and a source told NewsNation that radars and launchers were hit. Here's the part that jumped out at me. The Wall Street Journal's officials say Monday night was one of a series of limited strikes the US has been carrying out secretly in recent weeks. The New York Times adds that earlier operations hit empty cruise missile launchers after the Guards shot down an American drone and missed two US fighter jets. So the quiet stretch before the vote wasn't all that quiet. It just wasn't announced. And there's still no formal statement from either government. Al Jazeera's Resul Serdar Atas, reporting from Tehran, made that point this morning: media sources have confirmed the strikes, but officially neither the Iranians nor the Americans have. A White House official told The Epoch Times, "The Commander in Chief has all options available at any time." Then the president's own words, which pull in two directions. Leaving his closing rally at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday, Trump was asked by a reporter, per The Epoch Times, whether he was considering new strikes after the midterms. His answer was one word: "No." Then on Fox News, about Pickaxe Mountain, the suspected underground nuclear site: "We might have to go after Pickaxe. We can do that in one hour, as soon as we want, at any time we want." When we covered this before, he was talking about ten minutes. Now it's an hour. The sea is still where people die. India's foreign ministry says an Indian national was killed in an attack on Monday on the cargo vessel MSV Al Jusufi near Limah, off Oman, and 13 other Indians were rescued. Nobody has said who did it. As for the money: according to AFP, oil plunged more than 7 percent on Monday on hopes of a deal, then Brent ticked up half a percent early Tuesday to 105 dollars 25 after the Qeshm reports.
From Istanbul, Anadolu Agency's Sahin Demir on what the speaker of Iran's parliament told lawmakers on Tuesday:
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran has delivered a “firm and rational” response to Washington, stressing that the US must now decide whether to prevent another war.
That's the news here. Yesterday the Foreign Ministry was still describing messages passing through mediators. Today Qalibaf, who Anadolu says is leading Iran's negotiating team, says a response has actually been delivered. His words: "Iran has delivered a firm and rational response to the American side, and now the ball is in America's court to prevent war." What he didn't do is publish what the response says. And he wrapped it in threats. He said the armed forces are at the highest level of readiness. Al Jazeera, citing Tasnim, has him saying Iran stands ready "with its finger on the trigger." And if Washington makes "another strategic mistake," it will face "a new battlefield." Same sentence, olive branch and a loaded gun. That's how both capitals talk right now. Washington's public tone on Monday was warmer. Vice President Vance told reporters, "We've certainly made some progress. We'll see if we can make some more." Trump wrote on Truth Social that "Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible," and that it "could happen." Foreign Minister Araghchi told IRNA the consultations are "very intensive," with Qatar and Pakistan "playing a very active mediating role." Now hold that next to what Iran International relays. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that the two sides remain far from a deal, and that Iran won't accept what it calls US "excessive demands." The Foreign Ministry on Monday also ruled out enriched uranium leaving the country, and said Tehran isn't yet discussing conditions for renewed IAEA inspections. That's the nuclear file Washington wants first, and Tehran wants last. Optimism from Vance doesn't move that. Beijing is also stepping in. On Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Ali Bagheri Kani of Iran's Supreme National Security Council that dialogue was "the only viable path forward." So the open question for Wednesday is whether Washington says anything about receiving Iran's reply, or what it contains.
The Times of Israel, citing Israel's public broadcaster Kan and an Israeli security source:
Israel has asked the Lebanese government to deploy troops who will set up road blocks in areas where Hezbollah operatives live in order to prevent the terrorist group from joining the fray if war resumes with Iran, Israeli television reported Monday, citing a security source.
According to the report, the request went through American mediators, with a warning that fighting in Lebanon will flare up again if Hezbollah attacks Israel. Yesterday we covered Maariv's account of Israeli plans for Tyre, Sidon and Nabatieh. This is the other half of the same message, delivered as a demand instead of a war plan. And the demand lands on an army that both sides say can't do the job, for opposite reasons. Lebanese officials say Israel's continued strikes are hampering Beirut's efforts to disarm Hezbollah. Israel says the Lebanese army hasn't proved capable of the security role in the ceasefire deal. President Joseph Aoun said last week the state would handle security concerns through "official mechanisms and established coordination channels," not military action. Checkpoints in Hezbollah neighborhoods are a long way from coordination channels. i24NEWS adds two details from the Kan report. The Israeli air force has intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon over the past three weeks, mostly in open areas where the Lebanese army hasn't deployed. And Israeli officials reportedly believe Trump could order new strikes on Iran in the coming days, with senior IDF and CENTCOM officers holding talks this weekend and a joint operation on nuclear and energy sites reportedly under consideration. That is Israel's reading, attributed to unnamed officials, and it sits awkwardly next to Trump's one-word "No." Which is the Lebanese problem in a nutshell. They don't control the decision in Washington, they don't control Hezbollah's decision, and they're the ones being told to put soldiers at the roadblocks. Yesterday's senior Lebanese official said Hezbollah would only join if Iran's leadership faced an existential threat. A joint operation on nuclear and energy sites could test that line fast.
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My eye is on the gap between "No" and "one hour." One of those is going to turn out to be the real answer. And I'll be looking for any American acknowledgment of Qalibaf's reply, and its contents. We'll be with you again tomorrow, Wednesday, November 4. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast. Thanks for listening.