Nearly one billion barrels. That's how much oil the head of Abu Dhabi's national oil company says has drained out of the world's inventories since this war began. And over the weekend, more ships were struck in and around the Strait of Hormuz, even as oil prices fell on hopes for diplomacy. This is Iran War Daily. It's Monday, November 2, one day before the American midterm vote. Coming up: a violent weekend at sea and a new accusation from CENTCOM, Tehran telling Washington the next move is theirs, and Israeli reporting on what its army would do in Lebanon if Hezbollah enters a new round.
Al Jazeera's live coverage, relaying a post on X from US Central Command:
“Iran has not only intentionally attacked civilian infrastructure, neighborhoods, and other facilities in neighboring Gulf countries, but it has also deliberately attacked civilian mariners at sea – killing more than 20 in recent months,” it said.
CENTCOM was answering an Iranian claim that Iran has not attacked civilians in neighbouring countries, which it called false. And Sunday added two more incidents. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, as reported by ABC News, a merchant ship in the strait said on Sunday afternoon that another vessel nearby had been struck by an unknown projectile. Then on Sunday night, a tanker heading southeast through the Persian Gulf was hit by two unknown projectiles about 72 nautical miles east of the Saudi coastal city of Ras al-Khafji. UKMTO says all of that tanker's crew are accounted for. Then there's the Revolutionary Guards' version. Their navy said Sunday, in a statement on Sepah News carried by Xinhua, that two “violating” tankers, one of them a supertanker, hit naval mines on what Iran calls the unauthorized route, and that the supertanker “suffered a massive explosion and is burning.” Keep in mind what Bloomberg's US official told us yesterday: no ship has actually struck a floating mine in the strait. Nobody independent has confirmed either of these two. Rich, you asked yesterday who would claim the hit on the Qatari gas carrier Al Mayeda. As of this morning, no one has. Al Jazeera reports Gulf states condemning Friday's attack, and The National lists Saudi Arabia among them. Now the odd part: oil went down. Reuters, via Al Jazeera, had Brent down 3.2 percent to 109 dollars 75 early Monday, with US crude at 100 dollars 69. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade put it down to “lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress” and a weekend with no meaningful military escalation. But listen to Sultan al-Jaber of ADNOC. He says shipping and logistics now make up more than 30 percent of the cost of a barrel, against 5 percent before the war, and diesel stocks in some markets are at 35-year lows for this time of year. Somebody pays for that at the pump. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute told Al Jazeera that the idea the strait is open is “laughable.” His argument is that the more Washington insists it's open, the more reason the Revolutionary Guards have to hit ships for headlines. That's analysis, not evidence.
Sahin Demir, writing for Anadolu Agency on Monday's Iranian Foreign Ministry briefing:
Baqaei said the original seven-stage proposal had been condensed into a plan that could be implemented within two days, describing the shortened timeline as a “demonstration of Iran’s goodwill and constructive approach” toward diplomacy.
The spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, followed that with a condition: “The ball is now in the US court.” He said there is no deal, and no reopening of the strait, unless Washington ends its naval blockade. He confirmed that Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi went to Doha to pass messages to the Americans through Qatar. On the Vance letter, he said the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council will decide how to answer, and that the letter did not start a new diplomatic process. He also named Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf as the man leading the latest negotiations. And here are the terms, per Foreign Minister Araghchi in Dawn. Lift the new sanctions imposed after the memorandum, pull the US military presence back to its earlier level, end the blockade, and put the oil waivers into effect. In his words, “There is nothing extraordinary about these conditions.” Then he says what comes after the strait reopens: Iran wants to negotiate the complete lifting of sanctions, and the US wants to talk about the nuclear issue. So they don't even agree yet on what the next round is about. Reuters, via Arab News, adds that the Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday after three days with Qatari mediators. An official briefed on the talks says the departure was not because of difficulties. Araghchi said there's been no final conclusion on the two-day arrangement. On the American side, the president spent Sunday campaigning. At his final midterm rally, in Salina, Kansas, Trump said, “we can close them down anytime we want,” and “We’re trying to be a little nice.” He told the Right Side Broadcasting Network, “Either they’ll make a deal, or we’ll just end it.” And per Al Jazeera, he said the US will at some point have to give Iran “the hammer.” There's also the Netanyahu call. According to ABC News, Trump confirmed on Sunday that they spoke Saturday about Iran: “We had a very good talk,” with no details. The National, in its headlines, describes it as a tough call and says Trump favours giving negotiations more time. Those two descriptions don't line up neatly, and neither outlet published a readout. Parsi, for his part, warns that a bad result for Republicans on Tuesday could make Trump “even more reckless,” and that Israel could push to start “the third round of war before January,” before a new Congress is sworn in.
Caroline Akoum, reporting from Beirut for Asharq Al-Awsat:
Israel’s Maariv newspaper reported that the Israeli military was preparing for the possible occupation of three major cities in South Lebanon - Tyre, Sidon and Nabatieh - if war with Iran resumes and Hezbollah joins the fighting.
The Maariv article ran on Sunday. As relayed by Asharq Al-Awsat and L'Orient Today, the scenarios also include heavy strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and a naval blockade of the ports of Beirut and Tripoli. Maariv says the Israeli air force would be heavily engaged against Iran, so the navy would carry more of the strikes in Lebanon. To be clear, this is a newspaper's account of military planning, not an announced order. Meanwhile the ground isn't waiting for a plan. L'Orient Today's correspondent in the south, Muntasser Abdallah, reported “relentless bombardment and numerous demolitions” from Saturday night into Sunday, including suicide drones on Mayfadoun, which the paper says were rare in recent months. A woman harvesting olives near Wadi Hujeir was taken to hospital after a panic attack when a strike hit nearby. And on Monday, Lebanon's National News Agency, via Al Jazeera, reported shelling of al-Mansouri and Majdal Zoun. Al Jazeera says Israel still occupies about 6 percent of Lebanese territory, and the UN counts about 329,686 people displaced inside the country. The open question is what Hezbollah would actually do. When we last covered Lebanon, on October 27, Reuters had reported Hezbollah rearming with Iranian money. Now a senior Lebanese official, speaking anonymously to The National and relayed by the Jerusalem Post, says the group would join a renewed US-Iran fight only if the Iranian leadership faced an existential threat. Lebanese ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, “There is no doubt that the situation is worrying.” The bluntest voice is Riad Kahwaji, a security and defense researcher, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat: “Hezbollah has not disappointed the Israelis so far.” His point is that every time the group fights, Israel ends up holding more of the south. Lebanese civilians are the ones stuck between those two calculations.
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Americans vote tomorrow, and every strike timeline we've heard about starts after that. I'll be watching the shipping reports first. And I'll be watching for any reply from Rezaei to the Vance letter. We're back tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3. This has been Iran War Daily, a Lantern Podcast. Stay safe out there.