"It's a war, but it is not a typical war." That was President Trump on Friday, talking to reporters about Iran, on a day when Qatari mediators spent more than twelve hours at the table in Tehran. Same day, a report that his team is telling Gulf allies to brace for strikes right after the midterms. Apparently both can be true at once. This is Iran War Daily, and it's Saturday, October 31. Three stories today: the talks moving from Tehran to Doha, new reporting on a possible post-election strike and how Iran says it would answer, and a record month of attacks on shipping around Hormuz that pushed oil to a six-month high.
Barak Ravid, writing in Axios:
Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and avoid an outbreak of war after the midterms, according to diplomatic sources.
On Friday's show we told you the Qataris were heading back to Tehran. Here's what came out of it. A diplomatic source told Axios the mediators were in regular contact with the White House throughout the session, and described "positive progress." Iran International, citing Axios, says Iran's negotiating team is going to Doha, where the talks are expected to continue today. Positive progress from an unnamed source is a low bar. The sequencing is what matters. A US official told Axios the same two demands are still blocking everything: Washington wants nuclear concessions just to restart talks, and Tehran wants the naval blockade lifted, frozen funds released and its oil sold first. The Qatari bridge is this: Iran lets UN inspectors visit its bombed nuclear sites, and the US answers with some sanctions relief. There's also a reported draft. According to key points obtained by Al Arabiya English, Iran would either move its highly enriched uranium to an agreed third country or lower its enrichment level, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to shipping within seven days of an initial understanding, and the US would take matching steps to ease sanctions and the blockade. Direct talks would be held in Doha instead of Istanbul, with China as a possible guarantor. The two governments have not both publicly accepted it. Uranium out, ships through, sanctions eased, all inside a week. That's a lot to fit into seven days when they still can't agree on who moves first. One more claim to flag. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, a Qatar-based Arabic outlet, reports that a US delegation is expected to join Iranian officials for direct talks in Doha today, citing sources close to the mediation. We haven't seen Washington or Tehran confirm that. Pakistan's military spokesman, meanwhile, told Reuters he's cautiously optimistic, asking why army chief Asim Munir would visit Tehran twice in October "if it is not for some positivity."
Iran International, in its live coverage of the war:
US President Donald Trump is planning to resume strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, with his administration briefing Persian Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense round of attacks as soon as Nov. 4, MS NOW reported Friday, citing three senior regional officials.
November 4 is a Wednesday, the day after the midterms. That's MS NOW's reporting, relayed by Iran International, and it rests on three regional officials. Trump himself said Friday the war would be "wrapped up soon," and stressed the need for guarantees that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. Axios describes a real split around him. According to a US official, Defense Secretary Hegseth and Secretary of State Rubio doubt any nuclear deal is possible with Iran's current leadership and favor more strikes. Vance, Witkoff and Kushner want to keep negotiating, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants his economic pressure campaign to play out. Netanyahu, per Axios, is lobbying for a joint operation right after the election. One US official told Axios Trump might lean toward a major operation if Republicans lose badly on Tuesday. A White House official says election results won't factor into his Iran decisions. Tehran's reply came through the Tasnim news agency, which quotes an unnamed senior security official telling Al Mayadeen television that the armed forces have completed a "comprehensive and operational plan," and that Iran's response would be "beyond their imagination." An unnamed official on a friendly channel. That's a message to Washington, not a battle plan. Two more markers from Tehran. Iran International reports that senior lawmaker Alireza Salimi says a bill to withdraw Iran from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has been drafted and is now before parliament. And Axios notes Iran has vowed to answer any US strike on its energy infrastructure by hitting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. That target list is a big share of the world's oil supply. Which takes us out to the water.
From The National:
Attacks on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly level of the Iran-US war in October, with more than 30 incidents reported, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations.
The National says that's more than double September and above March, the war's first full month. UKMTO counts only verified vessels' reports, so the real number could be higher. Investing.com's own tally of UKMTO reports puts October at no fewer than 35. That's hard to square with CENTCOM's message. Admiral Brad Cooper flew over the strait this week and said in a video Friday, "Here's what I didn't see: I didn't see the IRGC out there, at all." CENTCOM also says more than 95 percent of ships have sailed through safely in recent months. Ninety-five percent sounds great until you're crewing one of the other five. Friday's incidents, with who's claiming what. The Revolutionary Guards said two tankers on what Iran calls the unauthorized route hit unspecified "incidents" and were halted south of the strait, and Iran International says the Guards' navy claimed a supertanker was left burning at the strait's entrance. None of that is independently verified. UKMTO separately reported a vessel catching fire after a strike south of Iran's Lavan Island, and said its crew was safe. Now the money. Per Investing.com, Brent settled Friday at 117 dollars 64 cents, up 2.4 percent after touching 118. That's a six-month high, and a 13.6 percent gain for October. American crude closed at 104 dollars 12. And by UKMTO's weekly count, traffic through the strait is still roughly 70 percent below prewar levels. The bill is landing well beyond the Gulf. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says the war has added more than 100 billion euros to Europe's energy costs. And at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain today, Saudi Vice Foreign Minister Waleed Elkhereiji called securing Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb "a shared responsibility," while Britain's Middle East minister, Stephen Doughty, said UK air defense equipment and personnel are helping protect Saudi Arabia from missiles and drones. When Saudi and British officials spend a Saturday morning in Bahrain talking about air defense, nobody in that room is betting on peace yet.
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Between now and Monday, I'm watching who actually turns up in Doha, and whether that seven-day draft survives contact with either capital. And I'm watching whether anyone in Washington goes on the record about November 4. We're back Monday, November 2, the eve of the American vote. Iran War Daily is part of the Lantern Podcasts family. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.