Last night we said we wanted to know what was burning off Khasab. The answer: a dhow, a traditional wooden vessel. It sank, and its crew got off safely. That turned out to be the quiet part of the night in the Strait of Hormuz. Welcome to Iran War Daily. It's Friday, October 30. One political note before we start: the Times of India reports Netanyahu's bloc has lost its majority in Israel's election, and Netanyahu has ruled out governing with Arab-led parties. Today we've got Qatar's mediators back in Tehran, a fight over who's telling the truth about mines in Hormuz, and Houthi fire on Saudi oil sites that has crude heading for a big month. Hit follow and you won't have to come looking for the next episode.
Andrew Mills of Reuters, in a report carried by Al-Monitor:
Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of efforts to reach a deal between the US and Iran, an official briefed on the talks told Reuters.
The same official says the mediation is coordinated with the United States. Some background: Qatar handed Iran a draft peace plan on Sunday. A senior Iranian official then called the proposals unacceptable and said Tehran would keep its nuclear position. And the gap hasn't moved. Reuters says Washington wants nuclear issues on the table from the first day. Tehran wants the port blockade ended and the oil export sanctions lifted first. Neither side will take the first step the other is demanding. Tehran made that position public again on Thursday. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator, wrote on X that Iran's seven conditions have to be agreed before there can be progress, and that a "carrot-and-stick approach" won't work. The Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, says Iran has received the Vance letter to security chief Mohsen Rezaei but hasn't answered it yet. Then there's the American side. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack told CNN on Thursday the two sides are "very close" to agreeing on a process for a temporary pause. In his words, "Let's have a time out." And in that same interview, when he was asked about a short, sharp US operation, he said the administration is seriously considering "kinetic action." So the pause and the threat are coming from the same official. Vice President Vance also spoke Thursday, per Iran International, and said Trump would achieve US objectives but wouldn't let this become a "forever war." There's also news on the general fired this week. Axios has seen an internal investigation report saying Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's chief planner until he was removed, admitted disclosing classified information about Iran and Ukraine to two journalists over about a year. CBS and the AP report the case went to the Justice Department. Those admissions come from investigation records, not a court, and Axios says Sylvia didn't respond to requests for comment.
Agence France-Presse, writing in Arab News:
At least four tankers have caught fire after hitting mines while attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s armed forces claimed on Thursday, a day after the US military said it had cleared key routes through the waterway.
That's two Iranian claims. On Thursday the Revolutionary Guards said three tankers exploded over the previous 24 hours on what they call the unauthorized southern route, near the Omani coast. Later that day Iran's regular army said a fourth tanker hit mines east of the strait. AFP says it wasn't clear when any of this happened or which flags the ships flew. The Associated Press says it couldn't confirm Iran's account. So this is two militaries arguing about mines in public. CENTCOM restated that all mines in the primary transit routes have been cleared. A Guards spokesman, Hossein Mohebi, answered on X: "Prove your Hormuz mine-clearing claim with independent evidence, not statements!" What we have on record comes from the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency. Besides the dhow that sank nine nautical miles north of Khasab, UKMTO says a tanker leaving the strait was hit by an unknown projectile at about 1600 GMT Thursday near Khasab. No crew injuries were reported. Gulf News notes that UKMTO didn't identify the weapon or say who fired it. And there's a second incident. Iran International and Al Jazeera report that UKMTO says another tanker was hit by explosive devices, and Iran International says a small boat attached two of them to the hull. Al Jazeera says that crew is safe. Every new method is one more thing an underwriter has to price in. One more thing to keep in mind: Iran calls the southern corridor unauthorized. That's Tehran's position, not an established ruling on whether those ships had the right to be there.
Reuters, on oil trading early Friday:
Oil prices climbed in early trade on Friday on supply concerns after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, on track for a fourth straight monthly gain and the steepest since July.
Here are the numbers. Brent was at 115 dollars 74 cents a barrel in early Asian trading, up 86 cents, and is on course to finish October nearly 14 percent higher. American crude is heading for a 15 percent monthly gain and its first month-end close above 100 dollars since April. Whoever wins this argument over mines, drivers are already paying for it. Here's what drove it. On Thursday the Houthis said they attacked several Saudi sites: the Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom's largest, plus the Rabigh refinery and an Aramco facility at Abqaiq. Those are Houthi claims. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a cruise missile headed for the kingdom's western region. Separately, coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said two ballistic missiles fired at Riyadh were destroyed. Saudi Civil Defence says falling shrapnel slightly injured one citizen. Then on Friday the coalition said, via the Saudi Press Agency, that it shot down a Houthi drone over the Mecca region. The Houthis deny it. Ameen Hayyan, from their military spokesman's office, called it "a great and grave falsehood" and wrote, "Our operations target its oil facilities and military bases." So their defense is basically, we only hit the oil. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, told Reuters that "continued kinetic action around the Strait of Hormuz amidst doubts of a viable diplomatic pathway" is keeping prices high, because traders expect escalation in the coming weeks. Reuters also reports, citing two sources, that ExxonMobil and Chevron have cancelled plans to send executives to the UAE's biggest oil show next week. When the oil majors won't send their executives to the region's biggest oil show, that tells you how risky they think the region is right now.
We'd like to hear from you. If you want us to follow a part of this war more closely, or you think we got something wrong, email us at iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com. We read every message.
Over the weekend I'll be watching whether a single neutral investigator gets anywhere near those tankers. And I'll be watching what the Qataris bring out of Tehran, and whether Iran answers the Vance letter. Our next episode is Monday, November 2, the day before the US midterms. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast. Thanks for spending part of your Friday with us.