Four hundred and forty kilograms of highly enriched uranium. On Tuesday the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog told the Security Council his inspectors still can't say where it is. You're listening to Iran War Daily. It's Wednesday, October 28. Israel voted yesterday, and The Times of Israel reports that neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition has reached a majority as the count goes on. On the list today: Grossi at the UN, a new Qatari draft deal sitting in Tehran, and the war's price tag, which keeps going up. Tap follow so the next episode finds you.
The Associated Press, as published by The Times of Israel:
However, Grossi says that “since June 2025, we have not identified any activity to repair or reconstruct any of the facilities damaged in the military attacks of 2025 and 2026.”
That came at Tuesday's Council session, the one we previewed yesterday. Rafael Grossi said Iran hasn't given the agency the information or access to verify its previously declared nuclear material, at sites that were bombed and at sites that weren't. He said the IAEA cannot verify that no nuclear material has been diverted, and that this "can and must be rectified." The one exception is the Bushehr power plant, where inspectors are working now. So he's saying two things at once. No sign Iran is rebuilding the bombed sites. And no idea where the 440 kilos of highly enriched uranium went. One of those gets quoted in Washington, and the other gets quoted in Tehran. One caution on the first point. On October 7 we covered satellite imagery, reviewed by the Institute for Science and International Security, showing debris clearing and earthworks at Min-Zadayi, a weapons development complex Israel struck in March. Grossi's statement covers the facilities damaged in the attacks. It doesn't settle what's happening at every site. He also said his inspectors "have been available to return for many months now," and suggested reviving the 2025 Cairo agreement with Iran as a route back in. And the Council split right down the middle. Per the UN's own meeting coverage, the agenda passed 11 to 2, with Russia and China against and Pakistan and Somalia abstaining. Russia's delegate called Grossi's account "another round of fabrications." China called the US and Israeli strikes the "direct cause" of the agency losing access. US Ambassador Mike Waltz said Washington and its allies would never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Pakistan's acting envoy, Usman Jadoon, urged both Iran and the US to honor the Islamabad memorandum and go back to talks. The AP says the White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on Grossi's remarks. So the referral got its hearing, and nothing came out of it that the Council could agree on.
Iran International, citing Reuters:
Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, and Tehran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing an official briefed on the negotiations.
On Monday we said the Qatari delegation's Sunday visit came with no confirmed details. Now we have some, from one unnamed official. The draft sets a seven-day timeline, with each side taking confidence-building steps every day, possibly starting early next week. Several countries would act as guarantors, and the official didn't say which ones. The Guardian's Patrick Wintour adds the Gulf states' version. A multipart deal in which Hormuz reopens within four days of sanctions being lifted, and the Houthis pull back substantial forces inside Yemen. Sanctions first, strait second. That's the order Tehran has wanted all along, and Washington has said no to it. And the mediators are bickering in public. On Tuesday, a Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson said Iran would need to show good faith, stop threatening Arab states and reopen the strait. Iran's foreign ministry fired back on Wednesday, telling Qatar to stop letting what it calls "aggressors" use Qatari territory, and to be more careful in public, given its role in the talks. As for Monday's Tehran meeting with the Saudis, Pakistanis and Turks, Araghchi says they agreed to keep talking, and he wants regional security "without foreign military presence." The Institute for the Study of War's read is blunter. It reports regional sources saying the meeting made no progress on any issue, and it thinks Iran's real aim is getting US forces out of the region. Washington's signals point the other way. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the US has warned several Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms. Asked at Joint Base Andrews whether he'd strike after the election, Trump said, "I can't tell you that. But anything is possible." On Tuesday he said he would "absolutely" attack Iran again if faced with the same decision. So Tehran says it'll answer by Friday, and the election is Tuesday. Not a lot of room in that calendar.
Reuters, in The Times of India's live coverage:
The US military has spent over $47 billion so far to prosecute the war in Iran, more than 25% higher than the Defense Department's estimate in July, according to Pentagon data obtained by Reuters.
The estimate hasn't been made public, and the Pentagon didn't immediately comment. In July, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put the cost at 37.5 billion. CBS News reports a Central Command estimate given to lawmakers with a very similar number: at least 47.1 billion as of mid-October. Look at where the money goes. Per CBS, about 29 billion is for replacing munitions already fired. Another 6.1 billion is for lost equipment, a lot of it drones, according to Reuters. And 11.9 billion is what CBS calls incremental costs, including support for troops. Fixing bases hit by Iranian missiles and drones isn't counted at all, so the real bill is bigger. That ties into the readiness thread we've been following. CBS says the Pentagon's inspector general has warned of "strategic inventory shortfalls" because of how many munitions have been used. The administration says the military isn't facing shortages. The Congressional Budget Office estimates ongoing costs of two to three billion dollars a month, more if the tit-for-tat exchanges resume. The supplemental funding request still hasn't passed Congress. And the politics. Reuters notes the war's effect on energy prices has hurt Trump's approval ratings ahead of an election that will decide control of Congress. Trump calls the economic fallout "short-term pain" for "long-term gain." Brent was still above 114 dollars a barrel, according to ET Now.
If you know shipping, insurance or nuclear verification and you think we got something wrong today, we want to hear it. Write to iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com. Corrections make the show better.
My watch list: whether Tehran answers Qatar this week, and the final count in Israel. Mine is the oil price, as always. Iran War Daily is made by Lantern Podcasts. We're back Thursday, October 29. Until then, take care.