"Sort of a waste of time." That's what President Trump called a ceasefire with Iran on Monday. Meanwhile two US officials are telling CNN that American forces could launch major new strikes within four days of getting the order. This is Iran War Daily, and it's Tuesday, October 27. Polls are open in Israel today, and in New York the UN Security Council hears from the nuclear watchdog on the first referral of Iran since 2006. So today it's strike readiness, the nuclear referral, and Hezbollah quietly restocking in Lebanon.
Zachary Cohen, Jim Sciutto and Tal Shalev, reporting for CNN:
US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.
That report came out Sunday. The officials say this would go well beyond the "mow the lawn" strikes on radars and launchers, with a target list that includes energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities. Trump hasn't decided, they say, but appears to be leaning toward major action after the midterms. They add that he has backed off at the last moment before. Look at the logistics. CNN says nonessential troops in the next rotation have been told they're not going. Then on Monday, per Iran International, Trump touted the naval blockade and said Washington now has "total control." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the same outlet that Iranians should stock up on gasoline and heating fuel, and predicted their economy will shrink by more than a quarter in the year ending March 2027. And then there's Israel, where Netanyahu faces Gadi Eisenkot at the polls today. CNN's Israeli security source says Netanyahu tried to get Trump to agree to a joint strike before this vote and didn't get a green light. Part of the reason, that source says, is that army chief Eyal Zamir told General Dan Caine it would harm the election and lead to its postponement. Netanyahu's office calls that "fake news," and on Monday Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel had "absolutely no intention" of attacking before the election. Here's what got my attention. Lazar Berman, the Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter, now writes that a return to war in the coming weeks "seems likely." Why? Washington wants Iran to give up enrichment and ship out its uranium before any real relief, and Tehran wants the blockade lifted, sanctions gone and frozen assets released just to start talking. That's not a gap. That's a canyon. Tehran answered on Tuesday. Rasoul Sanaei-Rad, from the supreme leader's office, warned of fewer restraints and "new surprises" next time, and Al Jazeera reports Iran is accusing Washington of "not being serious" about negotiations.
Security Council Report, previewing today's session in its What's In Blue briefing:
The report states that the Agency received no information from Iran on the status of its declared nuclear facilities and material and had no access to them since its previous report of 4 June.
That's the IAEA's September 1 report, and agency chief Rafael Grossi is expected to brief on it. Six members, including the US, Britain and France, asked for the meeting. On September 9 the IAEA's board voted 23 to 3 to report Iran to the Council, the first time since 2006. And here's the number that matters. Before last year's 12-Day War, the IAEA estimated Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, reportedly enough for ten weapons if it were enriched further. The agency says it lost continuity of knowledge over those stockpiles more than a year ago. In plain English, it can't vouch for where that material is. Don't expect a resolution out of this. China and Russia voted against the referral, reject its legal basis, and are expected to block any new Council product. When Iran was referred in 2006, the Council went on to demand a halt to enrichment and then imposed sanctions. But the preview notes that when North Korea was referred in 2003, the Council did nothing. Tehran got its rebuttal in early. At an IAEA ministerial meeting in Incheon, South Korea, on Tuesday, Hossein Derakhshandeh, deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said the agency has been swayed by political considerations, the Spanish news agency EFE reports. And back home, the hard-line paper Kayhan argued on Tuesday, per Iran International, that Iran would not have lost its leader if it had nuclear weapons, and that it should reconsider its nuclear doctrine. To be clear, Kayhan is a newspaper, and an editorial is not government policy. But it comes out on the same day the watchdog is expected to tell the Council it can't verify what Iran has.
Laila Bassam and Maya Gebeily of Reuters, in a report published Monday by The Times of Israel:
One of the sources, and another close to Hezbollah, said the group had received tens of millions of dollars from Iran to help boost its military capabilities. That is in addition to around $200 million that the group received from Tehran to aid displaced families in its Shiite heartlands, which Reuters reported earlier this month.
According to Lebanese security sources, Hezbollah has spent three months preparing for renewed fighting. It has used the lull since June to rearm, with a focus on explosives and drones that can be flown into Israeli positions. The sources say it's rebuilding command and control but hasn't fully restocked. Hezbollah's media office denies that its command structure broke down and claims a right to resist Israel's presence on Lebanese soil. Israel's military declined to comment. Washington's answer: the State Department says it will keep strangling Hezbollah's finances, and Treasury says Iran is running out of money and ways to move it. If Tehran can still send tens of millions in fresh cash, it hasn't run out yet. There's pressure from Hezbollah's own community too. Asharq Al-Awsat reports growing discontent among supporters who fear another war. A woman named Nada, who spent three months in a Beirut shelter with her children, told the paper, "We cannot be displaced again." Hezbollah official Nawaf Mousawi said that for now, "the resistance prefers to spare its people Israeli brutality." And the ceasefire is still being violated. Lebanon's National News Agency, via Anadolu, reports an Israeli drone bombing a house in Nabatieh district on Monday, plus shelling and an airstrike near Qantara. Anadolu says Israeli attacks have killed at least 4,386 people in Lebanon since March 2. If Washington and Tehran go back to war, we'll see who Hezbollah listens to: the people funding it or the people living under the bombs.
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Tonight I'm watching what Grossi actually tells the Council, and the first results out of Israel. That's the briefing. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast, and we'll be back tomorrow, Wednesday. Thanks for listening.