Saudi Arabia's defense minister, Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's intelligence chief are all in Tehran today. What they say they're there for is stopping the next round of this war before it starts. It's Monday, October 26, and you're listening to Iran War Daily. Brutal calendar this week: Israel votes tomorrow, Americans on November 3, and strike plans are reportedly ready. We've got the Tehran meeting, what the US military is getting ready, and a fight over who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera, reporting with Reuters:
The planned talks would be the first high-level contact between Iran and all members of the alliance since Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi armed group escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia last month.
The visitors are Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan, and Ibrahim Kalin, who runs Turkish intelligence. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, leads the Iranian side. Saudi diplomat Rayed Krimly says they'll also meet President Pezeshkian, and calls the trip de-escalation backing the Qatari and Pakistani mediation. Remember what this alliance is. Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca pact in August: an attack on one is an attack on all. This month its ministers agreed on "rapid deployment" of forces in Saudi Arabia. So a defense bloc built with the Houthis in mind is sitting down with Iran, whose side the Houthis are on. And the Houthi front didn't pause for the visit. The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh on Monday and destroyed two launchers in Sanaa. The Houthis claim they hit Riyadh's airport and oil pumping stations, which nobody has independently confirmed. Tehran is at least sounding interested. On Saturday in Islamabad, Iran's ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam told the AP, "We will study the Mecca Agreement, and if it is good, we will support it." He also said Iran had told Pakistan it would reopen Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade, and that Trump turned that down. That's the ambassador's account, and only his. A Qatari delegation was also in Tehran on Sunday, BasNews reports, with no confirmed details. And Al Jazeera says Pezeshkian called the Americans cowards who "messed everything up," while saying the effort to reach a deal should go on. So Iran's neighbors are at the table in Tehran. Washington is not.
Filip Timotija, writing in The Hill:
The U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, has plans ready to conduct follow-up strikes against Iran if there’s authorization from the White House, a source aware of the plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Hill.
A second source says the options have gone to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; the Pentagon won't discuss hypotheticals. Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group told the paper it "looks pretty likely" the US goes back to strikes once the midterms are over. Trump keeps moving the date around. At a rally Friday he said Washington "may do another little Epic Fury." On Saturday he hinted it could come Sunday, and on Sunday he said not today. Per Gulf News, he's saying "there's a possibility I will" in the same breath as "a nice, big, beautiful agreement." The hardware is moving regardless. JFeed, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports CENTCOM has moved some aircraft off regional bases to limit losses if fighting resumes, and that the USS George Washington is loading standoff land-attack missiles and bunker-buster bombs in the Arabian Sea. And Al Jazeera reports a Friday memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary Rubio. It says Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel" and that some plots are at "advanced stages." The memo as reported names no specific targets. Israel's politics are tangled up in this too. Channel 12 reported Sunday, citing unnamed sources, that army chief Eyal Zamir confronted Netanyahu over an unspecified new directive and demanded legal guarantees and signatures before carrying it out. Netanyahu called it "rubbish," and Defense Minister Katz said there was "no intention on Israel's part to initiate an attack on Iran before the elections." And Trump, on Truth Social, told Israelis to vote for their "outstanding Warrior Prime Minister." Some analysts doubt more strikes would change anything. Harrison Mann, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer, told The Hill: "There's no level of U.S. or Israeli strikes that is going to compel Iran to change course at this point." Foreign Minister Araghchi said much the same on Sunday: "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same."
John Power, writing for Al Jazeera:
It added that more than 95 percent of ships navigating the channel had sailed through safely in recent months despite Iranian threats, “clearly demonstrating that the United States and regional partners control the international waterway”.
That's Central Command on Sunday, claiming more than 3,000 ships and over 1.5 billion barrels of Gulf oil have moved with US support since June. Admiral Brad Cooper flew over the strait in an Army helicopter and said the main transit routes are free of Iranian mines. Tehran tells it very differently. Araghchi on Sunday: "Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same, and the management of the strait will no longer be the same." And bne IntelliNews reports the Guards' spokesman, Hossein Mohebbi, answered Cooper on X with just one line: "This is the reality on the ground." No details. Now look at what this costs. Al Jazeera had Brent at about 114 dollars 50 on Sunday. On February 27, the day before the war started, it settled at 72 dollars 48. Gulf News says it slipped about two percent Monday morning, to around 114. And 95 percent safe isn't 100. Al Jazeera reports an oil slick has washed up on UAE beaches, closing shoreline in Umm Al Quwain and Ras Al Khaimah, apparently from a tanker that reportedly hit an Iranian-laid mine in early October. So both sides claim control, and neither claim has been independently verified. What the market can see is the price, and the price says the strait isn't back to normal.
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Tonight I'm watching for any readout from the Tehran meeting, and tomorrow it's the Israeli polls. Iran War Daily comes to you from Lantern Podcasts, and our sources are in the show notes. We'll be back tomorrow, Tuesday, as Israel votes. Thanks for listening.