"Once and for all." That's how Israel's prime minister says the Iranian regime has to go. He said it with Israelis voting on Tuesday and Americans a week after that. Some background if you're new. The war began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28. A ceasefire memorandum agreed in June lasted about two weeks. Since then Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz largely shut, the US Navy has blockaded Iranian ports, and Pakistan and Qatar carry messages between the two sides. It's Friday, and this is Iran War Daily. Three things today: Netanyahu says the regime has to go, the world's emergency oil supply is running low, and Washington is moving diplomats out of Saudi Arabia while it decides what comes next.
Rachel Chason, Lior Soroka and Dan Lamothe, for The Washington Post:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday night that the Iranian regime must be overthrown once and for all, following preparations in recent weeks by the U.S. military for possible additional strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
He said it at a graduation ceremony for army officers. According to the Post, Netanyahu called Iran an "existential threat" and said President Trump had told him he was "ready to finish the job." Bloomberg quotes him this week as saying, "We must complete the elimination of the Iranian regime." And Israel votes on Tuesday, October 27. Gulf News notes the polls are tight, with Likud and the right-wing bloc hovering near a majority. A war speech to new officers plays well in a close race. Washington's tone isn't much softer. On Thursday, leaving the White House for Iowa, Trump told reporters, "we've knocked the hell out of them, and we may do it a little bit further." Asked about talks, he said, "we're not negotiating." He named no target and gave no timetable. A day earlier, he'd told NewsNation the talks were going on "a little bit." Tehran's answer is to threaten the whole region. Patrick Wintour, the Guardian's diplomatic editor, reports Iran's security chiefs say there will be "zero red lines" if the US and Israel attack again. On the list are oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities in as many as seven Gulf countries. Those countries aren't the ones fighting this war. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, writing in the Financial Times, urged a return to June's memorandum and warned that further escalation puts civilian lives and the global economy at great risk. On paper, at least, both governments are still leaving room for a deal.
Nils Adler, writing for Al Jazeera:
With emergency stocks at multidecade lows, analysts say the world may have only a month or two if Hormuz shuts again.
Here's how fast it's moving. Al Jazeera had Brent at 110 dollars 85 on Wednesday. The Guardian says it reached 112 on Thursday, the first time since May 18. Anadolu Agency had it at 114 dollars 57 by Friday morning. And US diesel is at a record high, according to Bloomberg. Adler's piece explains why the reserves matter. In March, the International Energy Agency's members agreed to release 400 million barrels, a record. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has since dropped to 283 million barrels, according to the Energy Department, the lowest since October 1982. Aaron Kildow of Sparta Commodities estimates that leaves about 400 million usable barrels worldwide, not counting China's stockpile or Gulf stocks, and nearly half of that is in Japan. Then compare the gap. Muyu Xu at Kpler estimates that if Hormuz closes and the Houthis block all Saudi tankers, Middle Eastern crude supply falls about 9.3 million barrels a day short of where it is now. And Kildow says US barrels are released over three months, while Europe is "the real wildcard." Two caveats. Bloomberg reports Middle East crude shipments, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz, are still not far off pre-war levels. And the Guards' claim of seven tankers hit on Thursday is still unverified. Al Jazeera says Washington dismissed it, and Anadolu reports Trump accused Iran of trying to drive prices up before the midterms. Both governments are trying to score points with the oil price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted satellite images of Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, with no crude tankers in sight. And on Thursday, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to declare oil production and refining essential to national defense.
Ahmed Elimam, Courtney McBride and Eric Martin of Bloomberg News, as published by Military.com:
The U.S. ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia because of the threat from Houthi militants, as the Iran-backed group carried out more strikes from Yemen.
On Wednesday, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott cited Houthi attacks on civilian airports and critical infrastructure. Bloomberg says at least four people were killed in Saudi Arabia that day. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says a drone attack on Aramco's Shaybah oil field killed two people, from Nepal and the Philippines, with falling debris after an interception. Saudi civil aviation authorities say two more people were killed at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam. And it may not stop with diplomats. NBC reports some military employees will be moved off bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar too. CENTCOM's response was that it regularly moves service members to "optimize mission readiness" and won't discuss it. The intercepts keep coming. The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and two drones heading for the south of the kingdom. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the Houthi attacks and called for a political path for Yemen. And today's diplomacy is in Istanbul. Gulf News reports that Britain, France, Germany and Italy are meeting Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt. Foreign Minister Ed Miliband's office says the agenda is essentially Hormuz and Saudi Arabia. One more meeting about the sea lanes, and Iran isn't at the table. So far, Bloomberg says, Trump has resisted pressure to back the Saudi campaign against the Houthis beyond sharing intelligence. Pulling out diplomats doesn't change that, but it shows how seriously Washington takes the threat.
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Over the weekend I'm watching the Istanbul readout, the Israeli vote on Tuesday, and whether Brent holds above 114. Today's sources are listed in the show notes. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast, and our next episode is Monday, October 26. Thanks for listening, and have a safe weekend.