Seven tankers in a single night. That's the count Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced this morning. If it holds up, it would be the worst day for shipping in the strait since this war began. For anyone new to the show: the US and Israel started striking Iran on February 28. Iran has choked off the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy blockades Iranian ports, and indirect talks through Pakistan and Qatar have stalled since a June interim agreement came apart. Welcome to Iran War Daily. On the list today: the Guards' biggest claim yet at sea, an Israeli offensive that got shelved for the American election calendar, and Israel's defense minister doing his own arithmetic on Lebanon. One tap on follow, and we'll be back in your ears before you know it.
From the Hindustan Times, carrying an ANI report on the Guards' statement as broadcast by Iranian state television:
“Following previous warnings to the offending maritime companies, who had been deceived by the invading US military and had crossed illegal routes, Navy fighters, by observing and pursuing four offending ships, which had previously crossed the illegal route, discovered them transferring oil cargoes in the middle of the northern Persian Gulf, where all four ships were hit simultaneously and caught fire,” the statement said, as reported by IRIB.
So the Guards say they struck four ships themselves, mid-transfer, in the northern Gulf. The same statement says three more vessels hit mines west of the strait on Wednesday night and were stopped. The Associated Press says that, if confirmed, it could be the largest number of vessels damaged in a single day since February 28. If confirmed. No ship names, no flags, no owners, nothing on the crews. On Wednesday they were taking credit for the mines. Now they say they hit four ships directly. There's a threat attached. The Guards accuse Washington of steering ships through an illegally mined passage, and say that if it continues, the confrontation will extend to US bases in the region. Their words: "This is a serious warning." Now look at the money. The Wall Street Journal, citing the tracking firm Kpler, reports Iran has used up millions of barrels it had stored on tankers in Asian waters, because the blockade stops it refilling the supply it sells to China. Central Command says the blockade has cost Tehran at least 25 billion dollars in oil revenue. That's CENTCOM's figure, not an independent audit.
Iran International, summarizing a Financial Times report in its live coverage:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the military to prepare a major new offensive against Iran earlier this month, but the operation did not go ahead because US President Donald Trump opposed restarting large-scale fighting before the November 3 US midterm elections, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.
According to the FT's three sources, Israel's military had readied a multi-day bombing campaign for the weekend of October 10. The targets were nuclear facilities, government sites and civilian infrastructure including power plants. One source cautions that the preparations may partly have been meant to pressure Tehran in negotiations. The White House told the FT the US will not attack before the midterms. Power plants. That isn't a nuclear program, that's the electricity for millions of ordinary Iranians. And another FT source sums up where we are in one sentence: "There will either be a deal or an attack." The New York Times reports the American side, as summarized by the Hindustan Times. It says US and Israeli forces have drawn up plans for a short but intensive operation after the midterms, aimed at Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Axios, citing Israeli and US officials, reports that dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew as far as Iran's border on Monday to project power. And the hardware's moving. US officials told Fox News the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and a Marine unit are heading over, due by the end of November. Then Trump tells NewsNation on Wednesday that something will happen, quote, "one way or the other. It'll happen fairly soon." Asked whether talks are still going, he said, "A little bit." He also said, "Most people seem to think it's after the election." From Tehran, Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebbi promised a "Father of All Bombs," with no details. And Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday that Iran is ready to give diplomacy another chance if Washington shows a sincere desire to build trust.
Tarek Chouiref, for Turkey's Anadolu Agency:
In a post on the US social media platform X, Katz said Israel could expand its occupation toward the Nabatieh and Litani areas if Lebanon’s Hezbollah group joined an Iranian attack.
That's Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, posting on Tuesday. He also warned that any rocket or drone fire at Israel would bring strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs. And he ruled out withdrawing from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed across the whole country. Then he put out the numbers himself. More than 60 Lebanese villages demolished, holding 23,000 homes. Around 200,000 people displaced. Katz says the villages were used by Hezbollah. But those aren't a critic's figures, they're the defense minister's. Some context. On June 26, Lebanon and Israel signed a US-sponsored framework for a gradual Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah's disarmament. Anadolu notes Israeli attacks have continued regardless. And on the day of Katz's post, Lebanese and Israeli military delegations were holding US-mediated talks at Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida. Talks in Tampa and threats on X, on the same day. Whatever gets decided about Iran after the midterms, Katz has made it clear Lebanon is in line for the fallout.
Before we wrap: we'd like to hear from you. If there's a front of this war you think we're missing, or a claim you think we framed badly, write to iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com. A real person reads every note.
My watch list for tomorrow: whether even one of those seven ships gets a name, and whether "fairly soon" turns into a date. The reporting behind today's episode is linked in the show notes. That's Iran War Daily for this Thursday, a Lantern Podcast. We'll be with you again tomorrow, Friday.