Twelve ships attacked in a single week. That's the count from the UK's maritime trade office, and it says the real number is higher. A quick catch-up, since we were last with you on Wednesday. The US and Israel began striking Iran on February 28. Iran has restricted the Strait of Hormuz ever since, and the US is blockading Iranian ports. A June memorandum meant to lead to a final deal collapsed, and talks now run through mediators. You're listening to Iran War Daily. Coming up: two navies claiming the same strait, a bomb with a family nickname, and an offer from Tehran that's been on the table so long it's gathering dust. First, the water.
Maziar Motamedi, reporting from Tehran for Al Jazeera:
Dozens of ships were attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz in October as Iran and the United States compete to assert their authority over the waterway.
October is now the worst month for ship attacks since the war started. UKMTO confirmed at least 12 in the week ending October 16. One ship sank, two were disabled. And here's the line that should worry everyone: most of the ships that got hit didn't even report it. That's UKMTO's own caveat. It knows of more incidents through other sources but can't verify them. And the account of what's hitting these ships depends on who's talking. On Saturday the Revolutionary Guards said two tankers, each carrying about two million barrels, caught fire after hitting mines on a route Iran hadn't authorised. No names, no flags, no crews. And Central Command disputes the mine story. It says it has cleared the strait of mines, and that ships are being hit by projectiles instead. Its example is the container ship GFS Pride. The Guards said it hit a mine. CENTCOM says an IRGC projectile hit it, and it sank while being towed to shore. Neither account has been independently verified. Then Admiral Brad Cooper goes on video Friday and says, quote, 'The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran.' Brent touched 110 dollars that same day, first time since May. Kpler, tracking independently, has flows at 11.6 million barrels a day in the week to October 13, about 68 percent of the pre-war baseline. Oil is moving, while the attacks keep rising.
Nadine El-Bawab, Ivan Pereira and Kevin Shalvey, for ABC News:
The list of options prepared by officials includes the use of the Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb known as the "mother of all bombs," according to sources familiar with the matter.
Some careful framing here. ABC's sources say the president hasn't decided anything. CNN reported the options first. A White House official would only say it doesn't comment on military plans that 'may or may not exist,' and that all options are on the table. Trump has also said he won't strike Iran before the midterms. Then Trump went on Newsmax Thursday night and called it 'like a tiny nuclear bomb,' right after saying it's not nuclear at all. Great messaging. Tehran answered over the weekend, and the answer goes beyond rhetoric. On Sunday, IRGC deputy coordinator Mohammad Reza Naqdi told a rally in Sari, according to the Tehran Times, that Iran would meet the 'mother of all bombs' with the 'father of bombs.' He named American tech, AI and oil companies in the region as being at risk. And here's the personnel move. Radio Free Europe reports Iran's parliament on Sunday confirmed Mehrdad Akhlaqi Ketabchi as defense minister, 237 votes to 15. He's on the UN sanctions list for his role in the ballistic missile program. Before the vote he promised a 'surprising and extensive' response to any new US-Israeli attack. He replaces Aziz Nasirzadeh, who was killed in the first strikes on February 28. Picking a missile-industry veteran for that post sends its own signal, whatever Washington decides after November 3.
From Reuters, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking in Baghdad:
"Our situation is clear and based on the seven-days proposal presented to the US. They shared comments which we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn’t, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious," Araqchi said while in Baghdad for a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.
'If there is any honesty, which there isn't.' He's making an offer and calling the other side dishonest in the same sentence. The details matter here. Iran's conditions include lifting the US blockade of its ports, lifting sanctions on its oil exports and ending hostilities on all regional fronts. If Washington accepts, Araghchi says, the strait reopens on the sixth day and negotiations resume on the seventh. Iran first put this forward in mid-September. As Gulf News notes, it's a conditional Iranian position. Nobody has agreed to a reopening date. 'Reviewing' is this week's word for the deadlock. And per Investing.com, Washington still insists Iran halt its nuclear program. That's the core disagreement, and seven days doesn't touch it. There's also a security warning. The US Virtual Embassy in Iran has told Americans in the Middle East to exercise 'heightened vigilance,' and it warns that Iran and groups supportive of Tehran 'may target' US interests worldwide. Gulf News describes it as a precautionary warning, not confirmation of a specific attack.
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What we're watching: whether anyone outside Tehran confirms those weekend mine claims, and whether Washington puts anything in writing about Araghchi's seven days. The articles behind today's stories are linked in the show notes. We're back tomorrow, Tuesday. Iran War Daily is part of the Lantern Podcast family. Thanks for listening this Monday.