Two senior Iranian officials have told Reuters what the attacks on Hormuz shipping are for. Their answer is oil prices, and the American midterms. Some quick background. Since February 28, when the US and Israel started striking Iran, Tehran has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington answered with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Talks to end the war have stalled, and President Trump has said he won't attack Iran again before the November 3 vote. This is Iran War Daily. Today a chess metaphor from Tehran, a strike plan that's 'maybe now, maybe later, maybe never,' and the Houthis have found Aramco's address. We start at sea.
Parisa Hafezi, Jonathan Saul and Phil Stewart, reporting for Reuters:
The two officials declined to provide details of the new strategy, but one said that Iran had started using different offensive tactics against vessels it considered in violation of its restrictions about 10 days ago, adding that this had led to an increase in attacks on such ships. The strategy included a change in the type as well as the pace of attacks, with one goal being to influence the outcome of the US vote, they said.
So they're just saying it out loud now. The second official tells Reuters, quote, "This is a game of chess." Every time prices look ready to fall, Iran pushes them back up. And Americans pay for that move at the gas pump. Two unnamed officials, and they wouldn't detail the tactics. But one piece comes from the American side. A US military official told Reuters that after the US took out much of Iran's radar, the Revolutionary Guards started using unarmed spotters in small boats. Last week US forces found spotters on a dhow, ordered everyone off and destroyed it. That official says nobody was hurt. And the numbers line up with the officials. At least five incidents in 48 hours, according to maritime security sources and UKMTO reports. Yesterday we had the Guards' own count of three tankers. Kpler data cited by Iran International puts Hormuz flows at just 2.9 million barrels on October 11. One day's figure, and daily flows swing a lot. Central Command tells a different story. It says US forces helped Gulf partners move more than 19 million barrels through the strait on Monday. The Iranian claim to watch is the one about where this goes next: attacks spreading to the Gulf of Oman, and in one official's words, "complete closure soon." Insurers won't wait to find out who's bluffing. They'll just price it in.
Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo at Axios:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump last week discussed the possibility of launching a major new operation against Iran before the Israeli and U.S. elections, according to two U.S. officials, one Israeli official and a fourth source with knowledge of the matter.
This one's disputed. Axios has four sources. A White House official calls the report 'false' and repeats the no-attack-before-the-midterms pledge. Netanyahu's office won't comment on his conversations with Trump. My favorite line comes from a US official describing Trump's answer to Netanyahu: 'Go ahead and get ready.' Then the same official adds that means 'maybe now, maybe later, maybe never.' So it's a war plan with a snooze button. According to the sources, the call took place before Trump's midterms pledge. Axios also reports Israel's military chief, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, talked last week with General Dan Caine about resuming full-scale fighting within three weeks. That's a problem for Israel's October 27 election, because Zamir reportedly said Iranian retaliation could force the vote to be postponed. And look who's pushing. Hegseth and Central Command are the strongest backers of new strikes, per one source. Most of Trump's other advisers want to keep up the economic squeeze. Meanwhile Iran's hitting tankers on purpose to shape the very vote that's holding Trump back. Both sides are playing the same calendar. Publicly, all Trump said on Tuesday was that a decision on Iran would come 'very soon.'
Kristina Harazim and Tracy J. Jawad, for Al Jazeera:
Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry says a strike caused a small fire at an Aramco building in Dhahran with no injuries, following a Houthi warning for civilians to evacuate Saudi oil sites it described as a “legitimate target”.
That's the line that's been crossed. A week of hitting airports, and now the Houthis are going after Saudi oil, in the Eastern Province. And in Riyadh, Saudi civil defence says debris from two intercepted missiles hurt four people, a child among them, and damaged fifteen homes. The ministry describes the fire as limited, in an administrative building, and says no one was hurt. The coalition is going after energy targets too. On Tuesday it struck a fuel facility west of Sanaa, after first telling civilians to clear out of the Yemeni Oil Company site, which it says the Houthis use to store missiles and drones. The Houthi-run oil company says the tanks were empty. People in Sanaa lined up at gas stations anyway. And Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told AFP that if the US gets involved, they'll target American interests in the region. On whether the US does get involved, Trump still hasn't said. On Tuesday he told reporters the Houthis are 'behaving very badly' and said he might ask Turkey's President Erdogan to step in. He hasn't announced a decision. Riyadh's King Khalid airport stays shut through October 17, according to a US embassy alert.
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Tomorrow we'll look at whether Iran's push beyond Hormuz shows up in the shipping data, and whether Washington answers the Houthis. You'll find the reporting behind today's stories in the show notes. Thanks for spending part of your Wednesday with Iran War Daily, a Lantern Podcast.