Twelve American bombers left an English airbase over the weekend in such a hurry that some took off before their refueling tankers were in position. Nobody rushes B-1s across the Atlantic on a hunch. This is Iran War Daily for Tuesday, October 6. The US and Israel went to war with Iran on February 28. Hormuz is still shut, and Tehran is still sitting on Washington's reply to its seven-day plan. Coming up: what officials now say was behind that bomber pullout, a Saudi-led alliance going live over Yemen, Iran's president calling talks meaningless, the blockade passing 130 ships, and a money trail from Iran's oil ministry to Moscow. Follow the show and the next briefing lands in your feed on its own.
Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, in New York Times reporting carried by The Irish Times:
The suspected attack was part of a complex, multipronged Iranian plot to strike aircraft and kill some of the several hundred American personnel stationed at the base, RAF Fairford, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
So Monday's mystery has an answer, or at least an official version of one. Now US and British officials say it was a drone threat ordered by the Revolutionary Guard. Let's be precise about the sourcing. These are unnamed officials, and the Wall Street Journal reported the drone threat first. One US official said the information was part of warnings that surfaced three weeks ago, with the urgency peaking over the weekend. Iran has denied the accusations. And on the record? Trump: "There were some threats. Why should we leave them there?" Per The Independent, he added that if Iran did launch a drone at Britain, it "will suffer devastating losses." Vance says the Pentagon moved "out of an abundance of caution." Secretary of State Rubio, though, said he wouldn't link the departure to the suspected plot, and that Washington remains confident in the security of its bases. On the British side, the five men arrested near Fairford on September 27 were bailed after no explosives turned up in their vans, but police say they're still under investigation. A British-Iranian dual national was arrested last Thursday on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Now the second-order problem. According to the Times, Israel warned Germany that US bases there, Ramstein and Spangdahlem, are at heightened risk. If Fairford was a target, every runway those bombers have used is a question. The Guards did say in July that any base used to strike Iran is a legitimate target. What we still haven't seen is public evidence tying the Fairford arrests to Tehran.
The Institute for the Study of War, in its October 5 update:
The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi air power and international coalition military support, launched an offensive to capture Mokha city and secure the coastline along the Bab al Mandeb Strait on October 4. This offensive will likely succeed in capturing Mokha in the short term.
And the pact that kept not being triggered just got triggered. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met in Riyadh Monday and agreed, in their words, "to move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defence commitments," with rapid deployment of forces to the kingdom. That's from the joint statement, via Gulf News. No troop numbers have been given, and ISW notes Pakistan and Turkey were already sending military aid. Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's chief of general staff were on the delegation lists for that meeting. That's a bigger war than it was a month ago. On the battlefield, the claims diverge. Gulf News reports government forces have recaptured Mocha. ISW is more careful: footage of them entering the city is uncorroborated, though Houthi lines south of it appear to have collapsed. Coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki says more than 100 fighter jets flew at dawn Monday and 324 high-value targets have been destroyed. ISW adds that US intelligence is reportedly supporting the air campaign. The Houthis answered by telling airlines Saudi airspace "is not safe." An AFP journalist and residents heard loud explosions in northern Riyadh on Monday. And Houthi-run TV says a Saudi strike in Sanaa governorate killed a woman student. UN Secretary-General Guterres is "deeply concerned by the sharp escalation," his spokesman said, and he condemned the Houthi cross-border attacks. ISW reads Riyadh's goal as narrow: retake the Bab al-Mandeb before any truce talks. It expects the offensive to pause within one to two weeks.
Iran International reports:
“Our problem with the United States is that every time we come to the negotiating table, war is immediately imposed on us,” Pezeshkian told Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan during a meeting in Tehran.
And the line built to travel: "We have been attacked three times so far following talks." His conclusion is that Washington's real goal is to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Read the full sentence before filing it as a walkout. Per IRNA, Pezeshkian said negotiating is meaningless with an enemy that "every day resorts to assassination, sanctions, pressure and threats." And the formal track is still open: the US reply to Iran's seven-day plan is still under review in Tehran. Meanwhile at a campaign stop in Nebraska, Trump called the war "essentially almost over" and said higher fuel prices are "a small price to pay for keeping the world safe." Easy line when you're not the one at the pump. The mediators are moving. Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni went to Doha, and Iran and Qatar agreed a technical team will meet again on three missing Iranian army pilots. Guterres has landed in Islamabad for three days of talks, with Pakistan's mediation between Iran and the US on the agenda. And the UAE returned 17 Iranian prisoners, which Baghaei credited to talks at the UN. Hard words up top, small trades underneath.
Diyar Guldogan, writing for Anadolu Agency:
Since the operation resumed on July 14, US forces have redirected 130 commercial vessels and disabled three ships that refused to comply, CENTCOM said in a statement.
It was 122 as of September 25. CENTCOM also says it destroyed 13 commercial vessels in 12 weeks, ships it says were running the blockade or part of the Guards' multibillion-dollar shadow network. Admiral Brad Cooper: "We will swiftly act against any vessels trying to run the blockade." Those are CENTCOM's own figures, with no independent tally. And Iran runs a checkpoint of its own. UKMTO says that on Monday the IRGC hailed an inbound tanker about 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, and told it to turn back or be targeted. The master complied. Later, a tanker in the strait reported an unknown projectile and a fire in its engine room. No casualties were reported. Two blockades on one strait, and the bill comes due at the pump. Aramco chief Amin Nasser told Reuters that almost 3 billion barrels of supply have been lost, and that refilling stockpiles could take up to two years even after Hormuz reopens. His phrase: "the supply resilience cushion is scarily thin." In Washington, Trump signed an order late Monday allowing tax-free red-dyed diesel on public roads through the end of the year. Gulf News puts the savings at about 24 cents a gallon, with diesel above six dollars in many areas. Twenty-four cents off six dollars. Farmers will take it. It doesn't open a single shipping lane.
Iran International, in an investigation published Tuesday:
Two informed sources told Iran International that Sadeghi, a senior adviser to the Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief, and his son were at the center of efforts to shift the mechanism for transferring sanctioned oil revenues from the UAE to Russia.
That's the oil minister who quit on Sunday. Yesterday we said nothing tied his exit to the blockade. This report ties it to something else: where the money goes. Weigh it as two unnamed sources, and we haven't seen it corroborated. Here's the claim. On Sunday, the Guards-affiliated Fars agency reported that Iran's central bank had moved 1.5 billion dollars in oil revenue through Russia's banking system. Hours later, Mohsen Paknejad resigned. Iran International's sources say that transfer completed a Guards intelligence project, and that the minister was removed once it was finished. The official explanation is still personal issues. The backstory: according to the same outlet's earlier reporting, oil middlemen known as trustees have failed to return 11 billion dollars in sales proceeds. Sanctions squeeze the country, and the money still finds the well-connected. It fits a wider picture from ISW. Iran's central bank put 2 billion dollars into the rial on September 30, and the currency kept sliding. Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei called this Iran's most difficult economic period. ISW's read is that Tehran increasingly treats the economy as a security problem, and some officials may see relief through a deal as necessary.
Which corner of this war do you feel least briefed on: Yemen, the sea lanes, the talks? Write to us at iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com, and tell us what you want us to dig into.
Tomorrow we're watching for Tehran's formal answer to Washington, any sign of Turkish or Pakistani forces actually arriving in Saudi Arabia, and what Guterres hears in Islamabad. And whether the bombers' old spots at Fairford stay empty. Iran War Daily is a Lantern Podcast. Back with you tomorrow.