Tehran is reading Washington's reply. Over the weekend, it also told us what it isn't offering. If you're just joining us: the US and Iran have been at war since February 28. A June memorandum collapsed, and last week a US reply to Iran's seven-day plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz reached Tehran through Qatar. You're on Iran War Daily. It's Monday, and both capitals spent the weekend saying they're ready for talks, or for war. Take your pick. Today: Iran's first read on the US reply, a denial on nuclear inspectors, a new Saudi-backed offensive in Yemen, Gulf oil back above prewar levels on some days, and Israel digging in for winter in south Lebanon. This story isn't over: US-Iran deal negotiations. Follow us wherever you're listening, and the next chapter comes to you.
Al Arabiya English reports:
“If our enemies again choose the path of military confrontation, our response will be stronger than before, and we will defend ourselves with even more force,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a gathering of foreign ambassadors. “There is no military solution, nor any solution based on new sanctions,” he continued, adding “only negotiations based on justice and fairness” could end the conflict.
No military solution, says the foreign minister, while promising a bigger military response. Both halves in one breath. Let's separate what actually moved. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Sunday the US views on Iran's seven-day plan are, quote, "being reviewed inside the country through the appropriate channels." Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei went further. He called the US counterproposal "in line with their previous proposals concerning nuclear issues," and said Iran is focused on Hormuz. He says Tehran will send additional points. And parliament speaker Ghalibaf, who's also Iran's top negotiator, drew the line. The strait "will not be opened until our seven conditions" are met. That list covers sanctions, frozen assets and an end to the US naval blockade. That's not a counteroffer. It's the original offer, read louder. So the gap is the same one we've described for a week. Washington leads with the nuclear file, and Tehran leads with Hormuz. Baghaei blamed what he called "fluctuating demands" from Washington for the delay. And Washington's weekend soundtrack? Trump: "the only question is, it'll either be the easy way or the hard way." Hegseth on Saturday called the blockade "ironclad." Quote, "They don't control it, we do." Worth keeping in view: per Al Arabiya, the US hasn't struck Iran since September 1. The pressure now is the blockade and the buildup. And UN Secretary-General António Guterres visits Pakistan Tuesday through Thursday, with US-Iran mediation on the agenda.
Türkiye Today reports:
Baghaei said the return of IAEA inspectors had not been discussed by Iran’s top leadership and rejected reports that Tehran had proposed allowing inspections of nuclear sites in exchange for sanctions relief.
On Friday we brought you Bloomberg's report that Araghchi privately floated inspectors in exchange for sanctions relief. On Sunday the Foreign Ministry answered on the record: "No such issue has been raised." Friday's denial came from an anonymous source talking to Fars. Now it has a name attached. On the other side are Bloomberg's unnamed diplomats. And Baghaei's own phrasing leaves a gap. He says a return hasn't been decided. That isn't the same as ruling it out. Then parliament piles on. Lawmaker Vahid Ahmadi says IAEA cooperation stays suspended under a parliamentary law until Iran's nuclear sites and scientists are secure. Another MP, Alireza Salimi, says parliament will consider withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Every hawk in Washington is going to quote that back. Weigh those carefully. They're individual lawmakers, not a government decision. The more concrete item came from Baghaei himself. Iran is considering a Russian offer to take custody of its uranium enriched to 60 percent, with a final decision based, in his words, on national interests.
The Independent, in its live coverage:
In a televised address from Riyadh, Presidential Leadership Council chairman Rashad al-Alimi declared that armed forces will push forward until the country is "liberated from the grip of the terrorist militia."
On Saturday we told you Riyadh was preparing an offensive. Here it is. Yemen's Saudi-backed government says it will retake all the territory the Houthis hold, and its military spokesmen are telling Houthi fighters to lay down their arms. The Saudi-led coalition says it will keep providing operational support, per spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki. Now, the claims. The Yemeni army says it has carried out 1,122 operations and "neutralized" 1,747 Houthi fighters. Nobody has independently verified that. And the Houthis hit back at Saudi oil. They claim ballistic missiles and drones on an Aramco facility near Riyadh. An AFP journalist saw flames, and firefighters working at Aramco's Riyadh refinery. Sources told CBS the attack took place, but the Saudis are still assessing who's responsible, and Saudi authorities hadn't commented. On the ground, Al Jazeera reports the fighting is pushing more civilians into tent camps. And today, the meeting we flagged Saturday actually happens. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey bring foreign ministers, defense ministers and military chiefs to Riyadh under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. Pakistan's army chief is in that room. That's not a photo-op. Officially, it's a review of cooperation under the agreement. Whether anyone formally invokes the pact is the thing to watch.
Al Jazeera reports:
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed. However, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are now moving through the route, dismissing the amount as “negligible” when compared with pre-war traffic.
Both of those can be true, and that's the trick. Kpler counts everything leaving the region: Red Sea ports, Gulf of Oman terminals, ship-to-ship transfers. Fadavi's talking about the US-supervised route through the strait itself. Right. Kpler had regional crude exports between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels a day on September 24 and on the 27th through the 29th, against a prewar average of 18 million. The seven-day average hit 18.5 million on October 1. Fadavi also claimed no US vessels are left in the Gulf or the Sea of Oman. That's uncorroborated, and Hegseth says the US controls the strait. Here's my real-economy number. Per Poten data, a supertanker now costs about 1.3 million dollars a day. That's roughly 43 times what it cost in early January. So yes, the oil flows. At a war premium. And the attacks haven't stopped. UKMTO has reported at least one attack a day in Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. On Sunday, a tanker in Hormuz reported an unknown projectile damaging its engine room. The crew is safe, and no attacker has been named. Brent was quoted at 102 dollars and 60 cents early Monday in Tokyo. Meanwhile in Tehran, the oil minister quit. Mohsen Paknejad is out, and Hamid Bovard, chief executive of the National Iranian Oil Company, is acting minister. A presidential office official told state TV it was for personal issues. It comes during the US blockade, but nothing we've seen ties the two together. Gulf barrels are back. Iran's, per Bloomberg on Friday, were at zero last month.
Asharq Al-Awsat, reporting from Beirut:
The Israeli army is taking logistical steps to prepare for a prolonged presence in South Lebanon, fortifying positions and improving road networks while expanding scorched areas north of what it calls the “Yellow Line.”
Winter quarters. Israel's own press describes troops settling into protected compounds inside Lebanese villages, fitted out over the summer with generators, air conditioning and sanitation. Nobody installs air conditioning for a short stay. That's Ynet, citing Israeli security officials, as a reserve brigade rotates out after 80 days up to 12 kilometers deep. One official told Ynet that once the order is given, forces are, quote, "one night away from Tyre." And on the Lebanese side of that line, southern security sources tell Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel now holds 17 fixed positions. The fire zone is pushing toward a second row of villages, out to Wadi Zibqin and near Mayfadoun, where some displaced families had come home. Lebanon's National News Agency reported an airstrike on Kfar Tibnit. The weekend's Israeli casualties came from accidents, a mishandled grenade and a vehicle collision. One more, on its own track. The Pentagon confirms that all US bombers deployed to RAF Fairford have returned to their home stations in the United States. That's the base where five men were arrested last Sunday. The statement we've seen doesn't give a reason for the move.
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We'll be watching for Tehran's additional points on the US reply, for whatever comes out of today's meeting in Riyadh, and for Guterres in Islamabad. And the next UKMTO alert. Lately there's been one every day. Links to every story are in the show notes if you want to read more about anything that caught your attention. That's Iran War Daily for today. We'll be back tomorrow. This is a Lantern Podcast.