French troops are headed to Yanbu, a Saudi oil terminal. The question is what, exactly, they're there to stop. New to this story? Here's where it stands. Yemen's Houthi rebels, who are aligned with Iran, have been firing missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia as the wider Iran war spills south. Riyadh says it shot down a Houthi drone south of Mecca. The Houthis control the Bab al-Mandeb, the mouth of the Red Sea, and Saudi oil exports have been disrupted. ISW analysts think the Houthis want Yemen's oil and gas, or Saudi money to pay their government's salaries. Iran War Daily. And the map's getting bigger. Tehran's talking Indian Ocean now. Plus a commander who wouldn't move troops farther from Iran, right before a deadly drone strike. We start on the Red Sea coast, with who's lining up behind Riyadh. Al Jazeera writes:
Saudi Arabia’s allies are rallying to support the country as the Houthi rebels step up attacks. France confirmed on Friday that it is sending troops to guard the major oil terminal at Yanbu. Meanwhile, Saudi officials are meeting with peers from Pakistan and Turkiye to discuss options under their mutual defence pact
Macron goes on TF1 and says 'soldiers, radars, and defence systems' at Yanbu, 'not to involve ourselves in any conflict.' Mate, you're putting troops on the end of a pipeline the Houthis say they hit yesterday. You're involved. Careful on 'hit.' The Houthis claim they struck Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a 'sensitive target' in Riyadh. The Saudis say they intercepted six ballistic missiles. No authority has confirmed damage. Sure. But Paris doesn't send air defence to a claim. That East-West Pipeline moves up to seven million barrels a day into Yanbu, per Al Jazeera. It's Riyadh's escape hatch around Hormuz, and France just decided it's worth guarding. So the Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia has now pulled in outside forces. France is moving. Pakistan and Turkiye, less so. Their foreign ministers met Thursday to set up an 'urgent meeting' of military chiefs under the Mecca pact. The pact hasn't been triggered, and both countries are still acting as mediators. A meeting to schedule a meeting isn't a mobilization yet. Jonah Kaplan, writing in CBS News:
The dozens of U.S. troops bombarded by Iranian drones at a small Kuwaiti port in the opening days of the Iran war could have relocated to safer positions in western Saudi Arabia, multiple sources told CBS News, but those plans were rejected by the unit's commanding general despite intelligence warning of a potential attack on their post.
Here's the part that stopped me. One of the safer spots scouted for those troops was LSA Jenkins, near Yanbu. Yes, the same Yanbu the French are now flying in to defend. Instead they stayed at the Port of Shuaiba, sixty-five miles from Iran, and six Americans died there on March 1. Who made the call matters here. CBS's Jonah Kaplan, citing multiple sources, says it was Brigadier General Clint Barnes of the 103rd Sustainment Command, an Army Reserve logistics unit. He rejected LSA Jenkins and Prince Sultan Air Base despite intelligence warnings. His preferred option copied what the previous unit did during last July's twelve-day war. Copied it into a completely different war. One of their own service members says it: last July they were worried about debris falling out of the sky, and this time Iran was aiming at them. So who signed off above Barnes, and has anybody in that chain answered for it? Because if force protection looked like this in March, I'm not taking CENTCOM's word that the blockade posture is airtight now. I'd hold off on convicting the whole chain just yet. That account comes from anonymous sources, and we haven't heard the general's side. But most troops in Kuwait were moved about a week before Epic Fury, so the risk was clearly understood. Which leaves one question: why was this unit the exception? Behrouz Turani, writing in Iran International:
Tehran is signalling that its response to US pressure may be to widen the conflict, turning restrictions on its shipping and aviation into risks for airports and waterways stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and potentially the Indian Ocean.
Four thousand kilometres. That's roughly Iran to Diego Garcia, and now a Khamenei adviser has said the words 'Indian Ocean' out loud. Underwriters on those routes start repricing today. They don't need a single boat to move first. Let's be exact about who said it. Yahya Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in a video released by the IRGC-linked Fars News Agency. Fars itself calls it the first time a Khamenei adviser has named the Indian Ocean. So far it's a stated threat, with no operation attached. Stated, sure. But the day before, IRGC spokesman Mohebbi said Iran will 'change the geography of the war.' The Guards' spokesman, then the Leader's adviser, both pointing the same way. So who in Washington still thinks the Araghchi team in New York is the one steering this? Fair, but keep that separate from capability. The nearer-term worry is Safavi talking about linking Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. That runs straight past Yanbu, where France just committed troops, in the piece we heard a few minutes ago. If you're finding Iran War Daily useful, please subscribe or leave a review wherever you're listening. Reviews help other people find the show, and they help us keep bringing you clear updates.
We're watching whether Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish military chiefs actually hold their urgent meeting under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, and whether the pact gets formally triggered. We're also tracking when the French soldiers, radars and defence systems pledged for Saudi Arabia's Yanbu oil terminal actually arrive.
Links to every story are in the show notes, so take a look at the ones that caught your attention. That's Iran War Daily for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.