Iran is being squeezed toward talks. Whether anyone's ready to make a deal is another matter. Quick catch-up before we dig in: before this Pakistan move, the U.S.-Iran deal track was already tangled up in Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and the collapsed Islamabad Memorandum. Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar spent a week trying to mediate, but they couldn't break the deadlock. Fighting around Larak Island resumed after that push stalled. So any renewed diplomacy has to deal with shipping, sanctions, and military pressure all at once. This is Iran War Daily. Envoys are headed to Pakistan as sanctions tighten—so who's actually prepared to give ground? This one's from Aaj English TV:
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday Washington was likely to announce bank sanctions against Iran this week, stepping up an attempt to “economically asphyxiate” Iran’s leadership after six months of conflict.
Bessent says bank sanctions are coming this week, then another round the week after—while two tankers are reported hit leaving Hormuz. If shipping through that lane is already pricing in fire, sanctions become another tax on every barrel trying to get out. Bessent laid out that timeline at the G20 finance meeting in Asheville. It's a declared U.S. policy move, not an announced sanctions package yet. Aaj also reports oil rose after the strikes and tanker-hit reports, but the excerpt doesn't establish who was responsible for those vessel incidents. And Tehran says it'll stop Gulf oil exports. Great—add threatened cargo disruption and a war-risk insurance bill to the banking squeeze, all in one week. Washington is widening the pressure beyond banks. Bessent said Treasury is also examining airline leasing firms and other businesses tied to the IRGC. The practical test is whether allies actually join those measures, as he says they will. Here's BBC News:
Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and the US president's son-in-law Jared Kushner are heading to Pakistan for peace talks with Iran on Saturday morning, the White House has said.
Witkoff and Kushner are flying to Islamabad, but Iran says flatly there's no direct U.S.-Iran meeting planned. So Pakistan is carrying messages, and Washington is billing that as a peace-talk mission. The stalled U.S.-Iran deal track is back in Islamabad, but only indirectly. Iran's Esmail Baqaei says Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet Pakistani officials, who will pass along Tehran's observations. And the White House has JD Vance on standby if this goes well. That's a lot riding on a relay service—especially with Hegseth demanding verifiable abandonment of a nuclear weapon. Karoline Leavitt says the mission is to hear Iran out. That's much narrower than an agreement. Can Islamabad turn exchanged positions into terms both governments will actually own? From The National:
President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran will reciprocate immediately if Washington returns to its commitments under a June 17 framework for peace talks, as pressure mounts on Tehran in the face of an economic crisis. His comment came as two supertankers were attacked off Oman, a day after the first US-Iran exchange of fire in more than a month.
Pezeshkian has put a specific condition on the table: Washington must return to commitments under the June 17 framework, and Iran will “reciprocate immediately.” Talks still aren't agreed. And what, precisely, is in that June 17 framework? A one-page MOU won't settle nuclear terms or the separate fights over hostages, proxies, Lebanon, and the Gulf by sheer optimism. The Pakistan mission we just covered may test that condition, but only indirectly. Iran says no direct U.S.-Iran meeting is planned. Islamabad appears to be serving as a mediator; it doesn't mean the two sides are sitting down. Meanwhile, The National reports two supertankers were attacked off Oman, including the Saudi-owned Sidr. Somebody should get the shipping insurers into the peace process; they may have the clearest view of how fast this is getting more expensive. If your team needs a briefing on its own competitors, market, or beat, Lantern can make a private daily podcast like this one and deliver it to your whole team's private feed. Learn more at lantern podcasts dot com slash briefings, with a 14-day free trial.
We're watching Witkoff and Kushner's planned Saturday-morning trip to Islamabad for Iran talks, along with expected U.S. bank sanctions against Iran this week and another possible round the week after.
Links to every story are in the show notes, so take a look at the ones you'd like to read more closely. That's Iran War Daily for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.