Hormuz is no longer just leverage in these talks. It may be the prize. New to this story? Here’s where things stand. The U.S.-Iran channel is tied up in Hormuz reopening, sanctions, maritime restrictions, and Omani mediation. Iran says there were no ceasefire-extension talks because the June agreement never took effect after what Tehran called a U.S. violation. Sanctions pressure and Tehran’s demand for compensation are hanging over the broader talks, too. This is Iran War Daily. Sunday’s deadline is coming, ships are barely moving, and Washington may be arguing with itself about whether to hit Iran again. Here's Maryam Sinaiee at Iran International:
Iran is doubling down on control of the Strait of Hormuz, with some in Tehran now arguing the strategic leverage it provides is more valuable than a nuclear weapon. Tehran’s drive to turn that control into lasting economic and political leverage—through shipping routes, mine clearance and potentially revenues from passing vessels—is emerging as a major obstacle to extending its fragile memorandum with the United States, which expires Sunday.
On the U.S.-Iran deal track, Hormuz control is now the sticking point as the June memorandum heads toward Sunday’s expiry. Iran International says the push is coming from hardliners and parliament, not the Iranian government’s declared position—but it’s quickly narrowing negotiators’ room. Charging ships for maritime services? Tehran is floating a toll booth at one of the world’s main oil chokepoints. Mine clearance and inspections, plus transit revenue—that starts to look like a long-term control regime, not a quick return to normal shipping. Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission unanimously approved broad outlines for legislation on vessel inspections and restrictions targeting U.S., Israeli, and other designated vessels. If it becomes law, Iran’s negotiators could be politically boxed in before August 16. And the slogan—Hormuz is “more valuable than a nuke”—tells you where this argument is headed inside Tehran. A nuclear program brings sanctions and strikes. Control of passage offers leverage every day. CBS News writes:
President Trump said Wednesday the U.S. has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Iran has disputed and that comes as ships are hesitant to pass through the waterway. "I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT," he wrote on his Truth Social platform. - The number of vessels tracked transiting the strait fell to a one-week low of eight, according to data reported by the Reuters news agency. About 130 ships a day passed through the vital waterway before the war started on Feb. 28.
Eight vessels through Hormuz, versus roughly 130 a day before February 28. So when Trump posts “total control,” the waterway is moving about six percent of its old traffic. Iran directly disputes that. Reuters, citing Fars, reports that Basij chief Hossein Taeb says the strait is under Iranian control and management. Those are competing claims, but the vessel count shows how little normal passage has returned. “I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT” is a very large claim to make when 122 of the usual daily transits are gone. Tanker owners and insurers aren’t reading Truth Social; they’re looking at the route. The spillover is deadly beyond Hormuz, too. Yemen’s coast guard says six people aboard a Red Sea vessel were killed by Iran-backed Houthis. That attribution comes from the coast guard, and it shows this isn’t confined to one strait. From Garowe Online:
WASHINGTON — The commander of U.S. Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, has told Israeli officials that he is pushing for renewed strikes against Iran and a resumption of hostilities, Israel’s Channel 13 reported, potentially highlighting differences between Washington and Jerusalem over how to confront Tehran. According to the report, Cooper made the remarks during a recent visit to Israel, where he held discussions with senior Israeli officials.
Channel 13 reports that Adm. Brad Cooper told Israeli officials he favors renewed strikes on Iran. That’s a reported position from the CENTCOM commander—not a White House decision or a declared change in U.S. policy. So the military chief may be pitching Israel on restarting the shooting while Trump publicly talks up control of Hormuz and a path to diplomacy. With the MOU expiring Sunday, that’s one hell of a split-screen. There may be a split inside Washington, too. CNN previously reported that Gen. Dan Caine warned privately airstrikes alone could backfire and fail to meet Trump’s goals. Cooper’s reported push goes the other way. Israel changing soldiers’ leave is preparation, and Cooper’s reported lobbying is pressure—but neither substitutes for presidential authorization. If that authorization comes, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and U.S. bases are all back in play. If this briefing helps you stay informed, please subscribe or leave a review wherever you’re listening. Reviews help other people find Iran War Daily, and your support helps us keep bringing you the latest.
We’re watching the June 18 U.S.-Iran memorandum, due to expire Sunday, August 16, unless an extension is announced.
Links to every story are in the show notes, so check out any you’d like to explore further. That’s Iran War Daily for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.