Sarah: The pause is over — and this time, Iran's calculus is simple: strike first, talk later.
Sarah: Here's how we got here.
Sarah: The latest phase of the U.S.-Iran war had moved from nightly U.S.
Sarah: strikes to a fragile diplomatic pause — even as CENTCOM reported intercepted Iranian missiles and U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed PMF
Sarah: sites in Iraq.
Sarah: By our last edition, that pause was already fraying: PBS reported Trump threatening more strikes after Iranian attacks on a U.S.
Sarah: base in Jordan, plus a new explosion in Egypt.
Rich: This is Iran War Daily.
Rich: Today — IRGC footage of a strike on a Jordanian base
Rich: tankers burning in Hormuz
Rich: and Trump wanting to slap tariffs on a country we buy almost nothing from. Stick around.
Sarah: This one's from Al-Monitor:
Quote: On Wednesday night Eastern time
Quote: the US military launched a wave of airstrikes against IRGC targets in southern Iran
Quote: including command centers and missile sites
Quote: in retaliation for a thwarted Iranian ballistic missile attack in Jordan a day earlier.
Quote: The tit-for-tat has upended an informal truce that took effect Friday when both sides halted their nearly two-week run of attacks and
Quote: counterattacks.
Rich: Six months. Trump said this thing would run a few weeks, and here we are watching Iran throw the first punch six months in.
Sarah: That's the shift Al-Monitor's flagging: the informal truce that took hold Friday is gone.
Sarah: The US hit IRGC command centers and missile sites in southern Iran Wednesday night
Sarah: followed by IRGC claims of drone and missile attacks on bases in Jordan and Kuwait.
Sarah: Vatanka at the Middle East Institute puts Tehran's message plainly: quote, we too can surprise you.
Sarah: Tehran's refusing to let Washington set the tempo.
Rich: That's the part that should worry people.
Rich: When one side decides going first is the smart play, everyone starts racing up the escalation ladder.
Rich: And the IRGC's line today was what — the aggressor will be punished?
Sarah: According to state media, yes — that's from an IRGC statement, and it's their framing.
Sarah: The base-attack claims are still Iran's account, so I'd separate the confirmed US strikes from what Tehran says happened.
Sarah: This one's from Al Jazeera:
Quote: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps released a video of what they say were missiles launched by their naval forces targeting US aircraft at
Quote: Jordan’s Al Azraq air base
Quote: in retaliation for US strikes on Qeshm Island that killed three people.
Sarah: The source here is the IRGC itself — Iran's Revolutionary Guard released footage it says shows naval missiles hitting US aircraft at Al
Sarah: Azraq air base in Jordan.
Sarah: It's their video and their claim; there's no independent confirmation of what those missiles actually hit.
Sarah: And Iran frames it as retaliation for US strikes on Qeshm Island that it says killed three people.
Sarah: So in Tehran's telling, the sequence is Qeshm, then Al Azraq.
Rich: Look at the address.
Rich: Al Azraq is in Jordan — Iran's putting a missile on a base in a country that's neither Iran nor Israel.
Rich: The war's footprint just jumped a border.
Rich: Coming right after that 'strike first, talk later' piece we just covered, this is what it looks like on the ground.
Rich: Iran names a US target and releases video to prove it's willing to own the attack.
Sarah: I'd be careful with 'prove,' though.
Sarah: Footage alone doesn't confirm that any aircraft were destroyed.
Sarah: We can confirm the release and the claim; the damage is still Iran's word.
Rich: Fair — but Tehran doesn't need a battle-damage assessment to send the message.
Rich: Jordan and US airmen are on the target list now, and Tehran wanted everyone to see it.
Sarah: Here's Sarah Shamim at Al Jazeera:
Quote: A tanker caught fire off the coast of Oman on Monday night after being struck by an“unknown projectile” in the Strait of Hormuz
Quote: according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Quote: Separately citing two unnamed US officials
Quote: news outlet Axios reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting
Quote: through the strait on Monday night.
Rich: So, the tanker that caught fire off Limah, Oman — UKMTO says it was hit by an 'unknown projectile.'
Rich: Axios, citing two US officials, says the IRGC fired at least two missiles at commercial ships.
Rich: Eight nautical miles off the Omani coast, two vessels badly damaged, no casualties.
Sarah: And keep those reports separate: UKMTO confirms a tanker was struck and caught fire.
Sarah: The attribution to the IRGC comes from Axios citing US officials; Tehran hasn't made that claim.
Sarah: Iranian TV suggested an LNG tanker ignored warnings, but Tehran didn't directly claim the attack.
Rich: Here's what gets me: Oman was brokering a deal over this exact strait
Rich: with voluntary fees and a joint navigation mechanism
Rich: while Iran denied it alone controlled the water.
Rich: Now commercial ships are being hit in that same channel while the negotiators are still at the table.
Sarah: Exactly why Hormuz was already the sticking point.
Sarah: Iran effectively closed it after the February strikes.
Sarah: Al Jazeera says attacks here hit the talks directly
Sarah: and all of this is happening amid funeral processions for Khamenei
Sarah: who was killed on day one of the war.
Rich: Strike first, talk later, right?
Rich: You can't run a shooting gallery in the same lane where you're promising freedom of navigation and expect insurers not to notice.
Sarah: Kevin Breuninger, writing in CNBC:
Quote: President Donald Trump wants Congress to add tariffs on Iran to a sanctions bill against Russia and Tehran that has bipartisan support.
Quote: Those duties would have little effect because the U.S.
Quote: imports nearly nothing from Iran.
Quote: But tacking them on to the bill may torpedo its chances of becoming law.
Sarah: Over on the diplomatic track
Sarah: Trump told reporters at the White House Wednesday that Congress should add Iran tariffs to that bipartisan Russia-Iran sanctions bill.
Sarah: It's separate from the strikes, but it matters.
Rich: Tariffs on Iran. We imported one-point-four million dollars of goods from them last year — and over half of it was art and antiques.
Rich: What're we gonna do, sanction their collectibles?
Sarah: That's CNBC's read — a Villanova trade professor calls the tariffs 'entirely symbolic' because imports are trivial.
Sarah: But even a symbolic move can do real damage: bolting it onto a bill with actual bipartisan support could sink the whole thing.
Rich: Right — that's the part that matters.
Rich: You've got a sanctions package that could actually squeeze Tehran, and the tariff line item might be what costs it the votes.
Rich: One pressure tool ends up kneecapping the whole pressure campaign.
Sarah: And look where this lands.
Sarah: While Congress is debating tariffs, the actual leverage is out in the strait we just covered, with missiles aimed at commercial ships.
Sarah: Customs duties on antiques barely register by comparison.
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Host: You’ll find links to every story in today’s show notes, so you can spend more time with any that caught your attention.
Host: That’s Iran War Daily for today.
Host: This is a Lantern Podcast.