Sarah: The pause just took a ballistic missile through it — and on that very same night, Oman was still handing Tehran a Hormuz proposal.
Sarah: If you're coming to this in the middle, here's the short version: the U.S.
Sarah: bombed Iran for nearly two weeks, then paused after advisers warned Trump about a wider war.
Sarah: The White House kept its military options open while mediators tried to turn the quiet into real talks over who sets the rules in the Strait
Sarah: of Hormuz. That's where things stand this morning.
Rich: This is Iran War Daily.
Rich: Tonight — CENTCOM intercepts
Rich: a U.S.-Saudi strike across seven Iraqi provinces
Rich: and a stockpile analysis asking how many shots we've got left.
Rich: So much for a pause.
Sarah: Two clocks, both running loud.
Sarah: Let's start with the missiles.
Sarah: CBS News writes:
Quote: The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF)
Quote: an Iraqi paramilitary group backed by Iran
Quote: said at least 20 of its fighters were killed and 32 wounded in U.S.-Saudi strikes.
Quote: In a statement released Wednesday
Quote: the group said its headquarters in Baghdad
Quote: Wasit Nineveh Basra Kirkuk
Quote: Karbala and Diyala were hit and reported widespread damage.
Rich: About that pause everyone was toasting two nights ago: CENTCOM says Iran's IRGC fired multiple ballistic missiles at U.S.
Rich: troops Tuesday night.
Rich: That answers whether Tehran was done shooting. They weren't.
Sarah: The U.S. responded with joint strikes alongside Saudi Arabia across seven Iraqi provinces, including Baghdad, Basra, Kirkuk and Karbala.
Sarah: CENTCOM calls it retaliation for more than thirty drone attacks in seventy-two hours.
Sarah: The PMF says twenty of its fighters were killed and thirty-two wounded, and calls that count preliminary.
Rich: Saudi Arabia is named on the strike package.
Rich: Ten days ago Riyadh's line was that it “reserved the right to respond at the appropriate time and place.” Well
Rich: per Khaleej Times apparently the appropriate place was Diyala.
Sarah: Riyadh flying alongside U.S.
Sarah: forces inside Iraq is a first in this war.
Sarah: So what authority is Saudi Arabia operating under, and are the Gulf states now formally on Washington's side of the ledger?
Sarah: CENTCOM's statement doesn't say.
Rich: Meanwhile, Netanyahu's at the White House shaking hands while Israel sits this round out.
Rich: Nice seat. The fragile calm we've spent the week talking about just snapped clean in half.
Sarah: The shooting and the diplomacy are moving at the same time, Rich.
Sarah: The missiles resumed the same day Oman and Iran were trading paper on Hormuz.
Sarah: We'll get to that in a moment.
Sarah: But CENTCOM's claim that the entire salvo was intercepted and the PMF's casualty numbers are still one-sided accounts that need
Sarah: corroboration.
Sarah: This one's from Al Jazeera:
Quote: Iran and Oman have exchanged proposals regarding the future management of the Strait of Hormuz
Quote: as points of contention continue to exist between the two nations whose territorial waters border the strategic waterway.
Quote: Oman presented a proposal to Iran for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with “voluntary fees”
Quote: Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Sarah: There are two actual documents on the table.
Sarah: First is Oman's proposal for a joint mechanism with voluntary fees
Sarah: modeled on the Strait of Malacca
Sarah: where Indonesia Malaysia and Singapore jointly fund navigation and search-and-rescue.
Sarah: Per Reuters, it has regional backing and explicitly denies Iran sole control of the strait.
Sarah: Tehran has already answered through Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister for legal affairs.
Sarah: He rejects an equal split of transit routes, says it doesn't address Iran's security concerns, and has floated a counterproposal.
Rich: Voluntary fees. Malacca works because nobody's lobbing ballistic missiles across it.
Rich: Iran was firing at U.S.
Rich: troops the same night Oman handed over the proposal.
Rich: And look closely at that Malacca comparison.
Rich: Singapore isn't collecting a toll; ships chip in for buoys and rescue.
Rich: Gharibabadi wants Iran's “security concerns” addressed
Rich: which in diplomatic language
Rich: means Iran sets the terms and free passage doesn't simply return to its pre-war state.
Rich: Who collects the fee?
Rich: And if Iran laid the mines, who clears them?
Sarah: That's the split: the whole model depends on Iran giving up sole control, and Gharibabadi's counter rejects that premise.
Sarah: They're exchanging proposals, but they don't have an agreement yet.
Sarah: This one comes via Ben Finley at KSAT.
Rich: Remember General Caine warning Trump that the interceptor magazine was running low?
Rich: CSIS just put numbers behind that warning — and CENTCOM burned through another batch of Patriot and THAAD rounds knocking down Iran's
Rich: missiles overnight.
Sarah: Just to pin down the sourcing: this is the Center for Strategic and International Studies, carried by AP through KSAT.
Sarah: Its analysis says shrinking Patriot and THAAD inventories may force the U.S.
Sarah: and its Gulf allies to take more risks to conserve what's left.
Rich: We're striking more targets and defending against more attacks, all with a shrinking stockpile.
Rich: In the same week we intercepted multiple ballistic missiles, analysts are telling us the shelf is nearly bare.
Rich: Say the number out loud: how many intercepts before the math breaks?
Sarah: CSIS doesn't give you an exact count, and I wouldn't expect the Pentagon to either.
Sarah: They've made the constraint public without publishing the inventory sheet.
Sarah: After last night's intercepts, that briefing-room warning feels a lot less theoretical.
Rich: And “take more risk to conserve” is a polite way of saying somebody at Al-Asad or a Gulf base eats an incoming one so we can save rounds.
Rich: That's the price tag nobody in Muscat is putting on a one-page Hormuz proposal.
Sarah: Here's Institute for the Study of War:
Quote: Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy.
Quote: The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time.
Quote: This group is likely led by elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including IRGC commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi.
Sarah: ISW and the Critical Threats Project put a name on Tehran's negotiating posture today: Major General Ahmad Vahidi.
Sarah: They map three IRGC-linked factions competing over policy
Sarah: and Vahidi's group — the one they say is currently setting it — wants negotiations while keeping total control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Rich: Now put that next to what happened overnight, Sarah.
Rich: The IRGC fired ballistic missiles at U.S.
Rich: troops Tuesday night, while Oman was carrying an Iranian Hormuz proposal into Muscat.
Rich: The faction shooting and the faction talking may not be the same people.
Sarah: That's the fault line to watch.
Sarah: ISW puts Pezeshkian in the pro-compromise camp, with Araghchi and Ghalibaf.
Sarah: It says their disagreement with Vahidi is over means rather than ends.
Sarah: Both groups still want “control” of the strait; they just define it differently.
Rich: They're all arguing over what “control” means.
Rich: Vahidi wants the whole waterway, while the Pezeshkian camp wants something smaller.
Rich: Meanwhile, the Paydari Front and Jalili don't want to talk to Washington at all.
Rich: When somebody signs a Hormuz page, I want to know which of these three is holding the pen.
Sarah: From Yahoo News:
Quote: For nearly six years, American conservationist Morad Tahbaz lived in what he described as hell inside Iran's prison system.
Quote: The worst four months were spent completely alone in a small cell, beneath a bright light that never went dark.
Sarah: Morad Tahbaz the conservationist Iran arrested in 2018 and freed in the September 2023 swap
Sarah: tells Fox News Digital he spent four months alone under a light that never went off.
Sarah: He was held in Ward 2A of Evin, a facility he says is run by the IRGC intelligence branch.
Sarah: It matters this morning because the same IRGC that runs that ward is now, according to ISW, at the center of Tehran's negotiating posture.
Sarah: His warning is that renewed fighting only makes the Americans still being held more valuable as leverage.
Rich: Now line that up with last night.
Rich: The IRGC fired ballistic missiles at U.S.
Rich: troops, and the people holding American prisoners saw their bargaining chips rise in value.
Rich: At the same time, Oman was floating a Hormuz proposal in Muscat.
Rich: And what was he charged with?
Rich: Training lizards to spy for Israel.
Rich: That's the intelligence service we're supposed to trust to honor a one-page understanding on shipping lanes.
Sarah: The 2023 release cost $6 billion in unfrozen assets, per PBS.
Sarah: Tahbaz's own view is that the price didn't deter anything.
Sarah: That's the uncomfortable subtext whenever hostages come up in the deal Washington is still trying to write.
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Host: You'll find links to every story in today's show notes if you want to dig deeper.
Host: That's Iran War Daily for today.
Host: This is a Lantern Podcast.