The pause just took a ballistic missile through it — and on that very same night, Oman was still handing Tehran a Hormuz proposal. If you're coming to this in the middle, here's the short version: the U.S. bombed Iran for nearly two weeks, then paused after advisers warned Trump about a wider war. The White House kept its military options open while mediators tried to turn the quiet into real talks over who sets the rules in the Strait of Hormuz. That's where things stand this morning. This is Iran War Daily. Tonight — CENTCOM intercepts, a U.S.-Saudi strike across seven Iraqi provinces, and a stockpile analysis asking how many shots we've got left. So much for a pause. Two clocks, both running loud. Let's start with the missiles. CBS News writes:
The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an Iraqi paramilitary group backed by Iran, said at least 20 of its fighters were killed and 32 wounded in U.S.-Saudi strikes. In a statement released Wednesday, the group said its headquarters in Baghdad, Wasit, Nineveh, Basra, Kirkuk, Karbala, and Diyala were hit and reported widespread damage.
About that pause everyone was toasting two nights ago: CENTCOM says Iran's IRGC fired multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. troops Tuesday night. That answers whether Tehran was done shooting. They weren't. The U.S. responded with joint strikes alongside Saudi Arabia across seven Iraqi provinces, including Baghdad, Basra, Kirkuk and Karbala. CENTCOM calls it retaliation for more than thirty drone attacks in seventy-two hours. The PMF says twenty of its fighters were killed and thirty-two wounded, and calls that count preliminary. Saudi Arabia is named on the strike package. Ten days ago, Riyadh's line was that it “reserved the right to respond at the appropriate time and place.” Well, per Khaleej Times, apparently the appropriate place was Diyala. Riyadh flying alongside U.S. forces inside Iraq is a first in this war. So what authority is Saudi Arabia operating under, and are the Gulf states now formally on Washington's side of the ledger? CENTCOM's statement doesn't say. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's at the White House shaking hands while Israel sits this round out. Nice seat. The fragile calm we've spent the week talking about just snapped clean in half. The shooting and the diplomacy are moving at the same time, Rich. The missiles resumed the same day Oman and Iran were trading paper on Hormuz. We'll get to that in a moment. But CENTCOM's claim that the entire salvo was intercepted and the PMF's casualty numbers are still one-sided accounts that need corroboration. This one's from Al Jazeera:
Iran and Oman have exchanged proposals regarding the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, as points of contention continue to exist between the two nations whose territorial waters border the strategic waterway. Oman presented a proposal to Iran for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with “voluntary fees”, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
There are two actual documents on the table. First is Oman's proposal for a joint mechanism with voluntary fees, modeled on the Strait of Malacca, where Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore jointly fund navigation and search-and-rescue. Per Reuters, it has regional backing and explicitly denies Iran sole control of the strait. Tehran has already answered through Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister for legal affairs. He rejects an equal split of transit routes, says it doesn't address Iran's security concerns, and has floated a counterproposal. Voluntary fees. Malacca works because nobody's lobbing ballistic missiles across it. Iran was firing at U.S. troops the same night Oman handed over the proposal. And look closely at that Malacca comparison. Singapore isn't collecting a toll; ships chip in for buoys and rescue. Gharibabadi wants Iran's “security concerns” addressed, which, in diplomatic language, means Iran sets the terms and free passage doesn't simply return to its pre-war state. Who collects the fee? And if Iran laid the mines, who clears them? That's the split: the whole model depends on Iran giving up sole control, and Gharibabadi's counter rejects that premise. They're exchanging proposals, but they don't have an agreement yet. This one comes via Ben Finley at KSAT. Remember General Caine warning Trump that the interceptor magazine was running low? CSIS just put numbers behind that warning — and CENTCOM burned through another batch of Patriot and THAAD rounds knocking down Iran's missiles overnight. Just to pin down the sourcing: this is the Center for Strategic and International Studies, carried by AP through KSAT. Its analysis says shrinking Patriot and THAAD inventories may force the U.S. and its Gulf allies to take more risks to conserve what's left. We're striking more targets and defending against more attacks, all with a shrinking stockpile. In the same week we intercepted multiple ballistic missiles, analysts are telling us the shelf is nearly bare. Say the number out loud: how many intercepts before the math breaks? CSIS doesn't give you an exact count, and I wouldn't expect the Pentagon to either. They've made the constraint public without publishing the inventory sheet. After last night's intercepts, that briefing-room warning feels a lot less theoretical. And “take more risk to conserve” is a polite way of saying somebody at Al-Asad or a Gulf base eats an incoming one so we can save rounds. That's the price tag nobody in Muscat is putting on a one-page Hormuz proposal. Here's Institute for the Study of War:
Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. This group is likely led by elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including IRGC commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi.
ISW and the Critical Threats Project put a name on Tehran's negotiating posture today: Major General Ahmad Vahidi. They map three IRGC-linked factions competing over policy, and Vahidi's group — the one they say is currently setting it — wants negotiations while keeping total control of the Strait of Hormuz. Now put that next to what happened overnight, Sarah. The IRGC fired ballistic missiles at U.S. troops Tuesday night, while Oman was carrying an Iranian Hormuz proposal into Muscat. The faction shooting and the faction talking may not be the same people. That's the fault line to watch. ISW puts Pezeshkian in the pro-compromise camp, with Araghchi and Ghalibaf. It says their disagreement with Vahidi is over means rather than ends. Both groups still want “control” of the strait; they just define it differently. They're all arguing over what “control” means. Vahidi wants the whole waterway, while the Pezeshkian camp wants something smaller. Meanwhile, the Paydari Front and Jalili don't want to talk to Washington at all. When somebody signs a Hormuz page, I want to know which of these three is holding the pen. From Yahoo News:
For nearly six years, American conservationist Morad Tahbaz lived in what he described as hell inside Iran's prison system. The worst four months were spent completely alone in a small cell, beneath a bright light that never went dark.
Morad Tahbaz, the conservationist Iran arrested in 2018 and freed in the September 2023 swap, tells Fox News Digital he spent four months alone under a light that never went off. He was held in Ward 2A of Evin, a facility he says is run by the IRGC intelligence branch. It matters this morning because the same IRGC that runs that ward is now, according to ISW, at the center of Tehran's negotiating posture. His warning is that renewed fighting only makes the Americans still being held more valuable as leverage. Now line that up with last night. The IRGC fired ballistic missiles at U.S. troops, and the people holding American prisoners saw their bargaining chips rise in value. At the same time, Oman was floating a Hormuz proposal in Muscat. And what was he charged with? Training lizards to spy for Israel. That's the intelligence service we're supposed to trust to honor a one-page understanding on shipping lanes. The 2023 release cost $6 billion in unfrozen assets, per PBS. Tahbaz's own view is that the price didn't deter anything. That's the uncomfortable subtext whenever hostages come up in the deal Washington is still trying to write. If Iran War Daily helps you stay informed, subscribe and leave a review wherever you listen. It helps other people find the show, and we really appreciate the support.
You'll find links to every story in today's show notes if you want to dig deeper. That's Iran War Daily for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.