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<v Sarah>Second straight night without U.S.

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<v Sarah>strikes on Iran — and Trump says he'll go right back to striking if the talks Tehran insists aren't happening fall through.

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<v Sarah>Quick catch-up before we dig in: the U.S.-Iran channel was strained even before this pause.

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<v Sarah>Mediators had been trying to push both sides back toward talks after the earlier strikes

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<v Sarah>and recent reporting said they'd agreed on a roadmap in Switzerland.

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<v Sarah>Then came a regional wrinkle: Mojtaba Khamenei publicly tied any deal with Washington to Israel ending its attacks on Lebanon.

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<v Rich>This is Iran War Daily.

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<v Rich>Today — everyone's calling the pause progress, even as Trump threatens to re-escalate.

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<v Rich>And one line about sanctions from senior U.S.

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<v Rich>officials quietly changes how the whole campaign looks.

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<v Sarah>And ships are slowing through two chokepoints.

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<v Sarah>Let's start with what's actually holding this pause together.

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<v Sarah>CBS <00:01:00.368>News <00:01:00.629>writes:

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<v Quote>President <00:01:02.165>Trump <00:01:02.488>expressed <00:01:03.063>optimism <00:01:03.685>to <00:01:03.840>reporters <00:01:04.329>Monday <00:01:04.739>about <00:01:05.123>diplomatic <00:01:05.682>efforts <00:01:06.059>in <00:01:06.152>the <00:01:06.352>Iran <00:01:06.752>war, <00:01:07.592>but <00:01:07.765>he <00:01:07.936>also <00:01:08.261>warned <00:01:08.688>that <00:01:08.805>if <00:01:08.952>the <00:01:09.152>U.S.

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<v Quote>and <00:01:09.632>Iran <00:01:10.032>can't <00:01:10.384>make <00:01:10.592>a <00:01:10.720>deal, <00:01:11.512>"we <00:01:11.685>go <00:01:11.840>back <00:01:12.085>to <00:01:12.232>doing <00:01:12.464>what <00:01:12.645>we <00:01:12.784>were <00:01:12.965>doing" <00:01:13.472>when <00:01:13.683>Washington <00:01:14.232>was <00:01:14.396>striking <00:01:14.832>Iran.

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<v Quote>- <00:01:15.912>The <00:01:16.092>Iranian <00:01:16.592>regime <00:01:17.152>insisted <00:01:17.872>it <00:01:18.112>is <00:01:18.332>not <00:01:18.602>engaged <00:01:19.285>in <00:01:19.452>any <00:01:19.689>direct <00:01:20.112>talks <00:01:20.544>with <00:01:20.692>the <00:01:20.832>U.S.

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<v Quote>but <00:01:22.245>after <00:01:22.552>three <00:01:22.809>nights <00:01:23.232>of <00:01:23.445>relative <00:01:23.952>calm

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<v Quote>it <00:01:25.047>acknowledged <00:01:25.792>ongoing <00:01:26.432>talks <00:01:26.880>with <00:01:27.184>Oman <00:01:27.699>aimed <00:01:28.085>at <00:01:28.260>establishing <00:01:29.112>"mechanisms <00:01:29.928>regarding <00:01:30.512>maritime <00:01:31.222>traffic" <00:01:32.139>in <00:01:32.372>the <00:01:32.512>Strait <00:01:33.152>of <00:01:33.536>Hormuz.

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<v Rich>Trump says if talks stall, quote, "we go back to doing what we were doing."

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<v Rich>And what exactly were we doing?

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<v Rich>By CENTCOM's own account, running out of targets.

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<v Rich>So he's threatening to resume a campaign that had already run out of targets.

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<v Sarah>Let's separate those claims, because Washington and Tehran are saying different things.

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<v Sarah>Trump sounded optimistic to reporters Monday.

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<v Sarah>Tehran, that same day, insisted there were no direct talks with Washington at all.

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<v Sarah>But here's what Iran will confirm: state TV says Araghchi worked the phones with Oman and Saudi Arabia.

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<v Sarah>What they're actually negotiating is a mechanism for maritime traffic through Hormuz.

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<v Sarah>So the pause is hanging on shipping-lane mechanics, with no grand bargain underneath it.

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<v Rich>Right — the whole diplomatic track now rides on the mechanics of Hormuz, with Trump dangling a quick snapback over it.

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<v Rich>Iran's held that strait since February 28th.

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<v Rich>You don't fix a chokepoint that global oil runs through with three quiet nights and a phone call to Muscat.

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<v Sarah>And look at the intermediary here: Oman, which has carried U.S.-Iran messages for years.

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<v Sarah>Tehran can deny direct talks and still be talking, just through Badr Al-Busaidi instead of across a table.

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<v Rich>Two governments describing two different realities to their own audiences.

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<v Rich>One's selling optimism, the other's denying the room exists — and the ships are the only honest party in this.

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<v Sarah>From <00:03:11.630>Rachel <00:03:11.971>Scott, <00:03:12.656>Katherine <00:03:13.008>Faulders, <00:03:13.744>Shannon <00:03:14.424>K.

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<v Sarah>Kingston, <00:03:15.392>Luis <00:03:15.975>Martinez <00:03:16.597>at <00:03:16.864>ABC <00:03:17.440>News:

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<v Quote>President <00:03:18.833>Donald <00:03:19.243>Trump <00:03:19.643>again <00:03:20.016>put <00:03:20.196>off <00:03:20.416>his <00:03:20.586>threats <00:03:20.963>of <00:03:21.056>a <00:03:21.149>major <00:03:21.478>military <00:03:22.034>escalation <00:03:22.648>with <00:03:22.888>Iran <00:03:23.469>in <00:03:23.789>favor <00:03:24.083>of <00:03:24.194>diplomatic <00:03:24.826>efforts <00:03:25.229>to <00:03:25.384>open <00:03:25.596>the <00:03:25.702>Strait

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<v Quote>of <00:03:26.104>Hormuz <00:03:26.763>after <00:03:27.153>senior <00:03:27.567>advisers

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<v Quote>including <00:03:28.736>the <00:03:28.888>vice <00:03:29.064>president

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<v Quote>voiced <00:03:30.056>concerns <00:03:30.980>multiple <00:03:31.406>sources <00:03:31.936>and <00:03:32.136>a <00:03:32.296>U.S.

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<v Quote>official <00:03:33.000>told <00:03:33.356>ABC <00:03:33.752>News.

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<v Rich>So <00:03:34.769>ABC <00:03:35.316>takes <00:03:35.702>us <00:03:35.857>into <00:03:36.069>the <00:03:36.209>room <00:03:36.596>where <00:03:36.956>it <00:03:37.062>happened: <00:03:37.809>Friday

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<v Rich>at <00:03:38.549>the <00:03:38.662>White <00:03:38.996>House <00:03:39.361>with <00:03:39.609>Caine <00:03:40.009>and <00:03:40.209>Vance <00:03:40.669>talking <00:03:41.142>Trump <00:03:41.473>down <00:03:41.761>from <00:03:41.929>the <00:03:42.122>escalation <00:03:42.942>ledge.

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<v Rich>And <00:03:43.889>Caine's <00:03:44.438>reason? <00:03:44.909>Munitions <00:03:46.142>stockpiles.

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<v Rich>We're <00:03:47.529>running <00:03:47.869>low <00:03:48.102>on <00:03:48.329>bombs.

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<v Sarah>Let's <00:03:49.782>be <00:03:49.959>precise: <00:03:50.929>Gen.

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<v Sarah>Caine <00:03:51.933>chairman <00:03:52.316>of <00:03:52.389>the <00:03:52.489>Joint <00:03:52.758>Chiefs

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<v Sarah>told <00:03:53.849>Trump <00:03:54.089>the <00:03:54.262>military <00:03:54.729>could <00:03:54.982>carry <00:03:55.289>out <00:03:55.449>those <00:03:55.719>options

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<v Sarah>but <00:03:56.796>he <00:03:56.929>also <00:03:57.297>laid <00:03:57.529>out <00:03:57.669>the <00:03:57.809>downside

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<v Sarah>including <00:03:59.302>depleting <00:03:59.829>the <00:03:59.956>stockpile.

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<v Sarah>That's <00:04:01.509>the <00:04:01.639>uniformed <00:04:02.280>military, <00:04:02.961>according <00:04:03.302>to <00:04:03.449>those <00:04:03.709>sources, <00:04:04.513>flagging <00:04:04.969>a <00:04:05.089>hard <00:04:05.482>constraint.

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<v Rich>Right, <00:04:07.229>and <00:04:07.473>pair <00:04:07.777>that <00:04:08.001>with <00:04:08.161>what <00:04:08.342>we <00:04:08.497>just <00:04:08.756>heard — <00:04:09.462>Trump <00:04:09.776>threatening <00:04:10.316>to <00:04:10.449>go <00:04:10.673>back <00:04:10.956>to <00:04:11.062>doing <00:04:11.393>what <00:04:11.756>we <00:04:12.081>were <00:04:12.622>doing.

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<v Rich>You <00:04:13.949>can't <00:04:14.257>credibly <00:04:14.733>threaten <00:04:15.116>to <00:04:15.226>resume <00:04:15.729>a <00:04:15.925>campaign <00:04:16.257>your <00:04:16.509>own <00:04:16.742>chairman <00:04:17.233>says <00:04:17.596>is <00:04:17.878>eating <00:04:18.339>through <00:04:18.729>the <00:04:18.919>arsenal.

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<v Sarah>And <00:04:20.269>ABC <00:04:20.769>says <00:04:21.137>this <00:04:21.377>fits <00:04:21.609>a <00:04:21.709>pattern: <00:04:22.516>Trump <00:04:22.889>threatens <00:04:23.302>destruction, <00:04:24.257>then <00:04:24.502>steps <00:04:24.833>back <00:04:25.129>and <00:04:25.302>cites <00:04:25.641>diplomacy.

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<v Sarah>What's <00:04:27.049>new <00:04:27.262>today <00:04:27.809>is <00:04:28.029>who <00:04:28.255>helped <00:04:28.561>pull <00:04:28.729>him <00:04:28.977>back — <00:04:29.669>the <00:04:29.777>vice <00:04:30.017>president, <00:04:30.582>in <00:04:30.709>the <00:04:30.849>room, <00:04:31.382>voicing <00:04:31.819>concern.

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<v Sarah>Now <00:04:33.463>we <00:04:33.610>can <00:04:33.770>put <00:04:33.930>a <00:04:34.018>name <00:04:34.290>to <00:04:34.470>one <00:04:34.583>of <00:04:34.710>the <00:04:34.841>internal <00:04:35.479>brakes <00:04:35.917>on <00:04:36.035>escalation

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<v Sarah>and <00:04:37.298>that <00:04:37.530>gives <00:04:37.750>the <00:04:37.861>diplomatic <00:04:38.437>track <00:04:38.834>more <00:04:39.147>weight <00:04:39.522>than <00:04:39.690>I'd <00:04:39.826>have <00:04:39.943>given <00:04:40.237>it <00:04:40.330>a <00:04:40.418>week <00:04:40.690>ago.

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<v Sarah>CNN <00:04:42.518>writes:

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<v Quote>Iran <00:04:44.177>may <00:04:44.350>be <00:04:44.491>better <00:04:44.741>positioned <00:04:45.209>than <00:04:45.357>the <00:04:45.474>United <00:04:45.886>States <00:04:46.350>to <00:04:46.507>sustain <00:04:46.897>a <00:04:46.993>prolonged <00:04:47.559>conflict <00:04:48.107>because <00:04:48.484>it <00:04:48.587>retains <00:04:49.017>a <00:04:49.137>significant <00:04:49.644>stockpile <00:04:50.244>of <00:04:50.367>weapons

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<v Quote>while <00:04:51.357>the <00:04:51.577>US <00:04:51.950>is <00:04:52.117>expending <00:04:52.665>high-end <00:04:53.145>precision <00:04:53.617>munitions <00:04:54.169>that <00:04:54.310>could <00:04:54.425>take <00:04:54.684>years <00:04:55.044>to <00:04:55.167>replace

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<v Quote>military <00:04:56.367>analyst <00:04:56.917>Cedric <00:04:57.230>Leighton <00:04:57.705>told <00:04:58.037>CNN.

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<v Rich>Here's <00:04:59.267>what <00:04:59.576>actually <00:05:00.056>moved <00:05:00.371>this <00:05:00.623>weekend: <00:05:01.507>ship <00:05:01.813>traffic <00:05:02.254>slowed <00:05:02.833>through <00:05:03.091>both <00:05:03.363>Bab <00:05:03.630>al-Mandeb <00:05:04.303>and <00:05:04.547>Hormuz <00:05:05.283>at <00:05:05.503>the <00:05:05.763>same <00:05:06.163>time.

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<v Rich>Captains <00:05:07.463>and <00:05:07.550>their <00:05:07.736>underwriters <00:05:08.443>are <00:05:08.613>pricing <00:05:08.995>this <00:05:09.203>pause <00:05:09.710>as <00:05:10.003>fragile, <00:05:10.927>whatever <00:05:11.336>Trump's <00:05:11.821>optimistic <00:05:12.483>line.

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<v Sarah>Look <00:05:13.470>at <00:05:13.583>how <00:05:13.783>the <00:05:13.896>headline <00:05:14.380>frames <00:05:14.803>it: <00:05:15.150>Trump <00:05:15.747>says <00:05:16.043>the <00:05:16.243>U.S.

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<v Sarah>halted <00:05:17.023>strikes <00:05:17.470>at <00:05:17.592>Tehran's <00:05:18.163>request.

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<v Sarah>That's <00:05:19.483>his <00:05:19.664>characterization.

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<v Sarah>Iran's <00:05:21.660>public <00:05:22.067>line <00:05:22.403>all <00:05:22.723>week <00:05:23.083>has <00:05:23.235>been <00:05:23.395>that <00:05:23.576>it <00:05:23.743>isn't <00:05:24.110>in <00:05:24.220>direct <00:05:24.616>talks <00:05:24.910>at <00:05:25.043>all, <00:05:25.763>so <00:05:26.003>I'd <00:05:26.203>put <00:05:26.363>a <00:05:26.463>big <00:05:26.696>attribution <00:05:27.347>flag <00:05:27.710>on <00:05:28.003>'at <00:05:28.323>Tehran's <00:05:28.963>request.'

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<v Rich>There's <00:05:30.190>an <00:05:30.291>even <00:05:30.540>better <00:05:30.963>line <00:05:31.340>buried <00:05:31.736>lower <00:05:32.083>down: <00:05:32.943>CNN's <00:05:33.603>own <00:05:33.913>analyst <00:05:34.623>Cedric <00:05:35.016>Leighton

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<v Rich>says <00:05:36.019>Iran's <00:05:36.533>sitting <00:05:36.936>on <00:05:37.093>roughly <00:05:37.543>two-thirds <00:05:38.430>of <00:05:38.523>its <00:05:38.693>missile <00:05:39.110>stockpile <00:05:39.856>while <00:05:40.376>we're <00:05:40.693>burning <00:05:41.073>through <00:05:41.347>precision <00:05:41.983>munitions <00:05:42.675>that <00:05:42.867>take <00:05:43.216>years <00:05:43.710>to

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<v Rich>replace. <00:05:44.910>So <00:05:45.183>who's <00:05:45.665>actually <00:05:46.223>got <00:05:46.423>the <00:05:46.554>leverage <00:05:47.203>in <00:05:47.403>a <00:05:47.523>'prolonged <00:05:48.243>conflict'?

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<v Sarah>That <00:05:49.571>fits <00:05:49.779>with <00:05:49.875>what <00:05:50.056>we <00:05:50.190>heard <00:05:50.355>from <00:05:50.563>CENTCOM: <00:05:51.383>the <00:05:51.736>campaign <00:05:52.243>ran <00:05:52.503>out <00:05:52.590>of <00:05:52.723>targets

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<v Sarah>and <00:05:53.803>now <00:05:53.976>an <00:05:54.153>analyst <00:05:54.707>says <00:05:55.003>the <00:05:55.163>other <00:05:55.427>side's <00:05:55.823>arsenal <00:05:56.283>was <00:05:56.472>barely <00:05:56.923>dented.

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<v Sarah>Regional <00:05:58.472>allies <00:05:58.940>report <00:05:59.390>no <00:05:59.670>fresh <00:06:00.073>Iranian <00:06:00.623>attacks <00:06:01.089>during <00:06:01.383>the <00:06:01.523>pause, <00:06:02.376>so <00:06:02.510>at <00:06:02.616>least <00:06:02.903>the <00:06:03.043>quiet <00:06:03.470>is <00:06:03.573>holding <00:06:03.950>on <00:06:04.067>both <00:06:04.403>sides <00:06:04.823>for <00:06:05.003>now.

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<v Rich>And <00:06:05.984>don't <00:06:06.377>sleep <00:06:06.697>on <00:06:06.824>the <00:06:06.964>Caspian — <00:06:07.834>Ukraine <00:06:08.404>hit <00:06:08.697>an <00:06:08.864>Iranian <00:06:09.353>vessel, <00:06:10.044>and <00:06:10.217>Araghchi <00:06:10.724>says <00:06:11.124>it <00:06:11.404>'cannot <00:06:12.057>go <00:06:12.389>unanswered.'

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<v Rich>Everyone's <00:06:14.208>watching <00:06:14.644>Hormuz <00:06:15.417>while <00:06:15.724>a <00:06:15.831>whole <00:06:16.217>other <00:06:16.564>front <00:06:17.028>just <00:06:17.341>opened <00:06:17.764>up <00:06:18.044>a <00:06:18.208>thousand <00:06:18.644>miles <00:06:19.071>to <00:06:19.144>the <00:06:19.284>north.

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<v Sarah>From <00:06:20.637>Axios:

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<v Quote>Iran <00:06:23.024>wants <00:06:23.282>assurances <00:06:23.891>it <00:06:24.004>won't <00:06:24.291>be <00:06:24.388>attacked <00:06:24.784>again <00:06:25.037>by <00:06:25.164>the <00:06:25.281>United <00:06:25.693>States.

79
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<v Quote>It <00:06:26.728>also <00:06:27.037>wants <00:06:27.357>money — <00:06:27.992>both <00:06:28.264>unfrozen <00:06:28.824>assets <00:06:29.364>and <00:06:29.604>freedom <00:06:30.104>U.S. <00:06:30.408>sanctions.

80
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<v Quote>Trump <00:06:31.997>is <00:06:32.184>wary <00:06:32.531>of <00:06:32.640>rewarding <00:06:33.224>Iran <00:06:33.584>for <00:06:33.748>disrupting <00:06:34.234>traffic <00:06:34.614>through <00:06:34.844>the <00:06:34.944>strait <00:06:35.364>and <00:06:35.597>is <00:06:35.752>demanding <00:06:36.216>that <00:06:36.424>Tehran <00:06:36.952>surrender <00:06:37.424>its <00:06:37.592>remaining <00:06:38.074>nuclear

81
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<v Quote>material.

82
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<v Sarah>The <00:06:39.564>sharpest <00:06:40.076>line <00:06:40.423>in <00:06:40.508>this <00:06:40.743>Axios <00:06:41.343>piece <00:06:41.729>comes <00:06:42.028>from <00:06:42.209>an <00:06:42.376>unnamed <00:06:42.853>senior <00:06:43.244>administration <00:06:43.969>official: <00:06:44.700>Iran <00:06:45.663>wants <00:06:46.016>the <00:06:46.126>bombing <00:06:46.503>to <00:06:46.668>stop

83
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<v Sarah>and <00:06:47.543>it <00:06:47.663>wants <00:06:48.063>money. <00:06:48.796>And, <00:06:49.169>quote, <00:06:49.660>they <00:06:50.293>really <00:06:50.684>want <00:06:50.916>the <00:06:51.076>money <00:06:51.383>first.

84
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<v Rich>Right — <00:06:53.345>senior <00:06:53.876>U.S. <00:06:54.204>officials <00:06:54.656>are <00:06:54.776>now <00:06:54.996>telling <00:06:55.396>Axios <00:06:56.060>that <00:06:56.372>sanctions <00:06:56.936>may <00:06:57.169>do <00:06:57.356>more <00:06:57.756>damage <00:06:58.316>than <00:06:58.796>13 <00:06:59.320>straight <00:06:59.722>nights <00:07:00.023>of <00:07:00.156>strikes.

85
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<v Rich>That's <00:07:01.596>a <00:07:01.756>quiet <00:07:02.204>admission <00:07:02.676>the <00:07:02.876>bombing <00:07:03.503>underdelivered, <00:07:04.656>and <00:07:04.769>it's <00:07:05.004>surfacing <00:07:05.676>weeks <00:07:06.183>in, <00:07:06.693>buried <00:07:07.076>under <00:07:07.356>all <00:07:07.656>the <00:07:07.882>strike <00:07:08.218>coverage.

86
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<v Sarah>What <00:07:09.642>caught <00:07:09.996>me <00:07:10.236>is <00:07:10.416>the <00:07:10.524>Hormuz <00:07:11.023>piece.

87
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<v Sarah>The <00:07:12.049>proposal <00:07:12.503>on <00:07:12.576>the <00:07:12.716>table <00:07:13.143>would <00:07:13.340>give <00:07:13.708>Iran <00:07:14.236>and <00:07:14.572>Oman <00:07:15.036>a <00:07:15.196>role — <00:07:15.896>and <00:07:16.136>revenue — <00:07:16.929>in <00:07:17.089>managing <00:07:17.576>traffic <00:07:18.026>through <00:07:18.256>the <00:07:18.376>strait

88
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<v Sarah>modeled <00:07:19.729>on <00:07:19.876>how <00:07:20.058>Malaysia

89
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<v Sarah>Singapore <00:07:21.356>and <00:07:21.668>Indonesia <00:07:22.456>run <00:07:22.896>the <00:07:23.016>Malacca <00:07:23.587>corridor.

90
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<v Rich>And <00:07:24.929>Trump's <00:07:25.372>wary <00:07:25.783>of <00:07:25.905>paying <00:07:26.396>Iran <00:07:26.769>to <00:07:26.956>stop <00:07:27.346>choking <00:07:27.856>the <00:07:27.976>strait <00:07:28.529>it <00:07:28.856>was <00:07:29.096>choking.

91
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<v Rich>Meanwhile <00:07:30.696>the <00:07:30.924>same <00:07:31.160>official <00:07:31.585>admits <00:07:32.076>some <00:07:32.458>Iranians <00:07:33.004>want <00:07:33.216>the <00:07:33.356>deal <00:07:33.776>and <00:07:34.145>others <00:07:34.616>don't

92
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<v Rich>which <00:07:35.569>tells <00:07:35.896>you <00:07:36.156>this <00:07:36.540>deal <00:07:36.849>is <00:07:37.002>caught <00:07:37.356>in <00:07:37.556>a <00:07:37.666>faction <00:07:38.223>fight <00:07:38.647>inside <00:07:39.287>Tehran.

93
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<v Rich>This <00:07:40.609>is <00:07:40.756>a <00:07:40.846>country <00:07:41.244>with <00:07:41.516>gasoline <00:07:42.220>shortages <00:07:42.846>sitting <00:07:43.249>on <00:07:43.404>some <00:07:43.623>of <00:07:43.716>the <00:07:43.916>largest <00:07:44.576>oil <00:07:44.947>reserves <00:07:45.623>on <00:07:45.929>Earth.

94
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<v Sarah>CBS <00:07:47.742>News <00:07:48.003>writes:

95
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<v Quote>Iran's <00:07:49.450>Revolutionary <00:07:50.097>Guard's <00:07:50.540>navy <00:07:50.974>stopped <00:07:51.384>six <00:07:51.624>vessels <00:07:52.090>trying <00:07:52.391>to <00:07:52.504>transit <00:07:52.944>the <00:07:53.038>Strait <00:07:53.271>of <00:07:53.404>Hormuz <00:07:54.014>through <00:07:54.398>routes <00:07:54.664>not <00:07:54.897>approved <00:07:55.377>by <00:07:55.544>Iranian

96
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<v Quote>authorities <00:07:56.884>state <00:07:57.128>television <00:07:57.626>reported <00:07:58.177>on <00:07:58.330>Monday. <00:07:59.124>"Last <00:07:59.764>night

97
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<v Quote>six <00:08:00.494>vessels <00:08:00.876>that <00:08:01.044>attempted <00:08:01.431>to <00:08:01.544>transit <00:08:01.984>through <00:08:02.164>a <00:08:02.271>route <00:08:02.644>other <00:08:02.876>than <00:08:03.024>the <00:08:03.142>designated <00:08:03.784>one <00:08:04.028>were <00:08:04.334>stopped <00:08:04.737>by <00:08:04.864>the <00:08:05.111>IRGC <00:08:05.884>Navy <00:08:06.252>with <00:08:06.494>warning <00:08:06.911>shots <00:08:07.304>and

98
00:08:07.530 --> 00:08:11.084
<v Quote>turned <00:08:07.884>back," <00:08:08.484>a <00:08:08.577>state <00:08:08.880>television <00:08:09.290>correspondent <00:08:09.937>reported <00:08:10.396>from <00:08:10.544>the <00:08:10.684>Gulf.

99
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<v Sarah>CBS <00:08:11.975>confirms <00:08:12.442>a <00:08:12.539>second <00:08:12.935>consecutive <00:08:13.562>night <00:08:13.810>with <00:08:14.082>no <00:08:14.302>strikes, <00:08:15.175>so <00:08:15.322>the <00:08:15.495>first <00:08:15.842>pause <00:08:16.322>wasn't <00:08:16.802>a <00:08:16.922>one-off.

100
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<v Sarah>With <00:08:17.986>both <00:08:18.295>sides <00:08:18.610>refraining <00:08:19.095>again, <00:08:19.802>Brent <00:08:20.082>crude <00:08:20.522>dropped <00:08:20.859>almost <00:08:21.362>5 <00:08:21.652>percent <00:08:22.055>to <00:08:22.202>$92 <00:08:23.149>on <00:08:23.222>the <00:08:23.394>news.

101
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<v Rich>Yeah, <00:08:24.742>and <00:08:24.855>remember <00:08:25.349>Brent <00:08:25.742>briefly <00:08:26.212>touched <00:08:26.642>$102 <00:08:28.018>last <00:08:28.466>week.

102
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<v Rich>So <00:08:29.322>the <00:08:29.499>market's <00:08:30.062>pricing <00:08:30.502>the <00:08:30.655>pause <00:08:31.229>as <00:08:31.570>real — <00:08:32.627>for <00:08:32.782>now.

103
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<v Rich>But <00:08:33.954>look <00:08:34.135>at <00:08:34.262>the <00:08:34.362>other <00:08:34.642>line <00:08:34.989>in <00:08:35.090>that <00:08:35.330>same <00:08:35.662>CBS <00:08:36.162>report.

104
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<v Rich>The <00:08:37.549>IRGC <00:08:38.459>turned <00:08:38.866>back <00:08:39.222>six <00:08:39.615>ships <00:08:40.135>in <00:08:40.306>Hormuz <00:08:40.946>overnight <00:08:41.586>with <00:08:41.902>warning <00:08:42.415>shots.

105
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<v Rich>Four <00:08:44.002>on <00:08:44.242>Saturday, <00:08:45.242>six <00:08:45.682>last <00:08:46.069>night.

106
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<v Rich>That's <00:08:47.502>all <00:08:47.728>during <00:08:48.022>the <00:08:48.162>so-called <00:08:48.900>positive <00:08:49.754>direction.

107
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<v Rich>The <00:08:51.332>bombing <00:08:51.789>stops, <00:08:52.442>and <00:08:52.642>Tehran's <00:08:53.255>still <00:08:53.562>running <00:08:53.862>the <00:08:53.989>chokepoint <00:08:54.626>like <00:08:54.962>a <00:08:55.106>tollbooth.

108
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<v Sarah>Here's <00:08:56.602>the <00:08:56.769>distinction <00:08:57.322>I'd <00:08:57.474>hold <00:08:57.698>onto: <00:08:58.502>the <00:08:58.619>strike <00:08:59.029>pause <00:08:59.415>is <00:08:59.562>a <00:08:59.655>decision <00:09:00.135>by <00:09:00.300>Washington <00:09:00.922>and <00:09:01.133>Tehran

109
00:09:02.135 --> 00:09:06.162
<v Sarah>while <00:09:02.482>Iran <00:09:02.862>has <00:09:03.089>effectively <00:09:03.655>blockaded <00:09:04.290>Hormuz <00:09:04.935>since <00:09:05.250>late <00:09:05.513>February.

110
00:09:06.269 --> 00:09:08.162
<v Sarah>Those <00:09:06.862>are <00:09:07.082>two <00:09:07.234>different <00:09:07.602>clocks.

111
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<v Sarah>The <00:09:08.709>pause <00:09:09.082>doesn't <00:09:09.415>touch <00:09:09.702>the <00:09:09.822>strait.

112
00:09:10.253 --> 00:09:14.082
<v Rich>Which <00:09:10.615>is <00:09:10.802>why <00:09:11.162>I <00:09:11.322>don't <00:09:11.589>fully <00:09:12.022>buy <00:09:12.362>the <00:09:12.552>falling <00:09:13.122>oil <00:09:13.455>price.

113
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<v Rich>Traders <00:09:15.142>are <00:09:15.252>betting <00:09:15.655>on <00:09:15.850>diplomacy, <00:09:17.162>but <00:09:17.342>nothing <00:09:17.842>on <00:09:18.022>the <00:09:18.162>water <00:09:18.622>has <00:09:18.882>changed.

114
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<v Rich>Somebody's <00:09:20.842>going <00:09:21.042>to <00:09:21.096>be <00:09:21.283>wrong, <00:09:22.203>and <00:09:22.376>it <00:09:22.563>won't <00:09:23.043>be <00:09:23.296>cheap.

115
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<v Host>Have <00:09:25.135>feedback, <00:09:25.913>a <00:09:26.020>story <00:09:26.433>idea, <00:09:26.940>or <00:09:27.033>a <00:09:27.124>correction?

116
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<v Host>Send <00:09:28.566>us <00:09:28.713>a <00:09:28.833>note <00:09:29.206>at <00:09:29.393>iranwardaily <00:09:30.326>at <00:09:30.483>lantern <00:09:30.922>podcasts <00:09:31.713>dot <00:09:32.073>com.

117
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<v Host>We <00:09:33.185>read <00:09:33.366>every <00:09:33.703>message, <00:09:34.613>and <00:09:34.700>it <00:09:34.806>helps <00:09:35.126>us <00:09:35.286>shape <00:09:35.649>Iran <00:09:36.093>War <00:09:36.353>Daily.

118
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<v Host>We'll <00:09:37.763>be <00:09:37.834>watching <00:09:38.210>the <00:09:38.316>second <00:09:38.670>half <00:09:39.017>of <00:09:39.090>the <00:09:39.310>60-day <00:09:39.840>interim-deal <00:09:40.487>window <00:09:40.910>for <00:09:41.210>any <00:09:41.454>move <00:09:41.742>from <00:09:41.890>the <00:09:42.014>Hormuz-management <00:09:43.057>talks <00:09:43.438>back <00:09:43.657>to <00:09:43.730>the <00:09:43.850>nuclear <00:09:44.366>file.

119
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<v Host>We'll <00:09:45.838>also <00:09:46.097>track <00:09:46.490>any <00:09:46.710>further <00:09:47.150>IRGC <00:09:47.854>turnbacks <00:09:48.483>along <00:09:48.798>Hormuz <00:09:49.219>routes <00:09:49.737>after <00:09:50.310>warning <00:09:50.670>shots <00:09:51.123>to <00:09:51.250>see <00:09:51.350>whether <00:09:51.650>the <00:09:51.803>pause <00:09:52.323>is <00:09:52.474>changing <00:09:52.850>the <00:09:52.963>blockade <00:09:53.443>at

120
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<v Host>sea. <00:09:54.190>You’ll <00:09:54.798>find <00:09:55.030>links <00:09:55.283>to <00:09:55.430>every <00:09:55.697>story <00:09:56.057>in <00:09:56.130>the <00:09:56.238>show <00:09:56.497>notes <00:09:56.857>if <00:09:56.930>you’d <00:09:57.102>like <00:09:57.283>to <00:09:57.422>read <00:09:57.620>further.

121
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<v Host>That’s <00:09:59.070>Iran <00:09:59.430>War <00:09:59.617>Daily <00:09:59.990>for <00:10:00.203>today.

122
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<v Host>This <00:10:01.417>is <00:10:01.510>a <00:10:01.610>Lantern <00:10:02.130>Podcast.