WEBVTT

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<v Sarah>Oil <00:00:00.300>crosses <00:00:00.760>a <00:00:00.830>hundred <00:00:01.120>dollars, <00:00:02.217>Tehran <00:00:02.627>turns <00:00:03.008>down <00:00:03.240>a <00:00:03.344>ceasefire <00:00:03.973>by <00:00:04.176>name, <00:00:04.920>and <00:00:05.060>the <00:00:05.200>war <00:00:05.504>just <00:00:05.813>moved <00:00:06.120>out <00:00:06.304>onto <00:00:06.580>the <00:00:06.720>water.

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<v Sarah>If <00:00:08.820>you're <00:00:09.008>just <00:00:09.250>joining <00:00:09.707>us: <00:00:10.304>even <00:00:10.606>before <00:00:10.928>this <00:00:11.187>round, <00:00:11.860>the <00:00:11.956>shipping <00:00:12.320>war <00:00:12.620>had <00:00:12.846>spread <00:00:13.177>beyond <00:00:13.540>the <00:00:13.646>Strait <00:00:13.947>of <00:00:14.064>Hormuz.

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<v Sarah>Iranian <00:00:15.796>pressure <00:00:16.120>there <00:00:16.380>was <00:00:16.618>disrupting <00:00:17.280>oil <00:00:17.600>flows, <00:00:18.480>U.S.

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<v Sarah>threats <00:00:19.232>were <00:00:19.413>aimed <00:00:19.707>at <00:00:19.820>Iranian <00:00:20.293>infrastructure, <00:00:21.560>and <00:00:21.720>Houthi <00:00:22.050>threats <00:00:22.446>around <00:00:22.820>Bab <00:00:23.173>el-Mandeb <00:00:24.000>were <00:00:24.370>forcing <00:00:24.777>tanker <00:00:25.177>diversions.

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<v Sarah>The <00:00:26.444>question <00:00:26.880>was <00:00:27.150>whether <00:00:27.408>that <00:00:27.671>maritime <00:00:28.284>pressure <00:00:28.680>would <00:00:28.928>stay <00:00:29.160>a <00:00:29.244>bargaining <00:00:29.800>lever — <00:00:30.624>or <00:00:30.795>turn <00:00:31.115>into <00:00:31.411>a <00:00:31.508>second <00:00:31.931>front.

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<v Rich>This <00:00:33.211>is <00:00:33.451>Iran <00:00:33.931>War <00:00:34.331>Daily.

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<v Rich>Today, <00:00:36.371>a <00:00:36.482>rejected <00:00:37.131>Baghdad <00:00:37.771>deal, <00:00:38.431>the <00:00:38.691>IAEA <00:00:39.495>pointing <00:00:39.878>at <00:00:40.038>Isfahan, <00:00:41.111>and <00:00:41.344>an <00:00:41.507>insurance <00:00:42.080>market <00:00:42.548>saying <00:00:42.939>what <00:00:43.151>the <00:00:43.302>podium <00:00:43.911>won't.

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<v Sarah>We <00:00:45.424>start <00:00:45.723>with <00:00:45.871>the <00:00:45.987>ceasefire <00:00:46.571>track: <00:00:47.467>what <00:00:47.601>exactly <00:00:48.147>collapsed, <00:00:48.791>and <00:00:49.031>who <00:00:49.281>Baghdad <00:00:49.811>was <00:00:49.975>speaking <00:00:50.411>for.

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<v Rich>We'll <00:00:51.499>keep <00:00:51.735>tracking <00:00:52.171>Hormuz-to-Red <00:00:53.231>Sea <00:00:53.602>maritime <00:00:54.236>escalation — <00:00:55.337>follow <00:00:55.631>the <00:00:55.771>show <00:00:56.171>so <00:00:56.351>the <00:00:56.459>next <00:00:56.720>update <00:00:57.198>finds <00:00:57.611>you.

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<v Sarah>Elena <00:00:59.483>Becatoros, <00:01:00.603>Fatma <00:01:00.983>Khaled <00:01:01.563>and <00:01:01.823>Collin <00:01:02.263>Binkley, <00:01:02.863>writing <00:01:03.503>in <00:01:03.803>ABC13:

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<v Quote>The <00:01:06.026>U.S. <00:01:06.577>military <00:01:06.866>announced <00:01:07.279>Thursday <00:01:07.738>that <00:01:07.893>it <00:01:07.999>is <00:01:08.157>conducting <00:01:08.706>the <00:01:08.906>13th <00:01:09.506>night <00:01:09.733>of <00:01:09.836>strikes <00:01:10.236>against <00:01:10.698>Iran <00:01:11.279>as <00:01:11.606>clashes <00:01:12.079>escalate <00:01:12.554>over <00:01:12.782>shipping <00:01:13.123>routes.

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<v Quote>Earlier <00:01:14.639>Yemen’s <00:01:15.082>Iran-backed <00:01:15.826>Houthi <00:01:16.255>rebels <00:01:16.730>said <00:01:17.002>they <00:01:17.128>attacked <00:01:17.686>two <00:01:17.933>Saudi <00:01:18.346>oil <00:01:18.650>tankers <00:01:19.093>in <00:01:19.166>the <00:01:19.286>Red <00:01:19.546>Sea

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<v Quote>potentially <00:01:20.799>widening <00:01:21.246>the <00:01:21.386>Iran <00:01:21.806>war <00:01:22.266>as <00:01:22.632>international <00:01:23.306>oil <00:01:23.615>topped <00:01:24.066>$100 <00:01:24.946>a <00:01:25.032>barrel.

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<v Rich>One <00:01:26.070>hundred <00:01:26.490>dollars <00:01:27.060>a <00:01:27.197>barrel.

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<v Rich>First <00:01:28.084>time <00:01:28.380>since <00:01:28.680>May, <00:01:29.560>and <00:01:29.673>it <00:01:29.840>printed <00:01:30.320>the <00:01:30.557>second <00:01:30.940>the <00:01:31.100>Houthis <00:01:31.600>claimed <00:01:32.060>two <00:01:32.260>Saudi <00:01:32.724>tankers <00:01:33.193>in <00:01:33.340>the <00:01:33.500>Red <00:01:33.720>Sea.

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<v Rich>The <00:01:34.797>market <00:01:35.180>doesn't <00:01:35.572>care <00:01:35.753>about <00:01:36.077>strike <00:01:36.466>counts — <00:01:37.273>it <00:01:37.433>cares <00:01:37.732>that <00:01:37.980>oil <00:01:38.420>can't <00:01:38.800>get <00:01:39.040>out.

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<v Sarah>And <00:01:40.500>that's <00:01:40.760>a <00:01:40.800>Houthi <00:01:41.193>claim, <00:01:41.540>Rich: <00:01:42.380>two <00:01:42.580>Saudi <00:01:43.044>tankers, <00:01:43.660>based <00:01:43.913>on <00:01:44.047>their <00:01:44.240>own <00:01:44.476>statement, <00:01:45.268>with <00:01:45.567>no <00:01:45.849>second <00:01:46.317>source <00:01:46.760>yet.

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<v Sarah>What <00:01:47.753>we <00:01:47.900>can <00:01:48.073>stand <00:01:48.409>behind <00:01:48.873>comes <00:01:49.172>from <00:01:49.380>CENTCOM.

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<v Sarah>It <00:01:50.628>says <00:01:50.868>this <00:01:51.087>is <00:01:51.200>the <00:01:51.580>13th <00:01:51.980>night <00:01:52.207>of <00:01:52.310>strikes <00:01:52.713>on <00:01:52.916>Iran, <00:01:53.740>meant <00:01:54.020>to, <00:01:54.393>quote, <00:01:55.140>degrade <00:01:55.780>Iran's <00:01:56.240>ability <00:01:56.740>to <00:01:56.953>threaten <00:01:57.424>commercial <00:01:57.940>vessels.

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<v Rich>Thirteen <00:01:59.849>nights <00:02:00.367>to, <00:02:00.820>what, <00:02:01.369>reopen <00:02:01.844>Hormuz?

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<v Rich>A <00:02:03.287>fifth <00:02:03.673>of <00:02:03.800>the <00:02:03.913>world's <00:02:04.340>oil <00:02:04.647>moved <00:02:05.010>through <00:02:05.268>that <00:02:05.520>strait <00:02:05.887>in <00:02:05.993>peacetime, <00:02:06.860>and <00:02:07.040>now <00:02:07.240>the <00:02:07.360>Houthis <00:02:07.820>are <00:02:07.973>threatening <00:02:08.420>a <00:02:08.557>second <00:02:08.967>chokepoint.

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<v Rich>The <00:02:10.473>whole <00:02:10.820>seaborne <00:02:11.460>exit <00:02:11.812>from <00:02:11.960>the <00:02:12.100>Gulf <00:02:12.473>is <00:02:12.620>under <00:02:12.873>pressure <00:02:13.380>at <00:02:13.620>once.

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<v Sarah>The <00:02:14.900>maritime <00:02:15.447>front <00:02:15.844>just <00:02:16.170>widened <00:02:16.708>from <00:02:16.964>Hormuz <00:02:17.513>to <00:02:17.640>the <00:02:17.760>Red <00:02:18.060>Sea.

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<v Sarah>CENTCOM <00:02:19.442>confirms <00:02:20.007>night <00:02:20.393>thirteen <00:02:20.873>is <00:02:21.033>under <00:02:21.380>way.

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<v Sarah>I'd <00:02:22.388>keep <00:02:22.649>Tehran <00:02:23.080>and <00:02:23.160>the <00:02:23.280>Houthis <00:02:23.753>on <00:02:23.904>separate <00:02:24.320>ledgers <00:02:24.780>there, <00:02:25.163>though.

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<v Sarah>Iran <00:02:26.317>closed <00:02:26.724>Hormuz; <00:02:27.720>the <00:02:27.820>Red <00:02:28.020>Sea <00:02:28.313>claim <00:02:28.633>is <00:02:28.774>coming <00:02:29.012>from <00:02:29.220>Sanaa.

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<v Rich>Separate <00:02:30.993>flags, <00:02:31.684>same <00:02:31.997>result <00:02:32.367>at <00:02:32.460>the <00:02:32.644>pump.

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<v Rich>Washington <00:02:34.233>calls <00:02:34.553>it <00:02:34.740>'restoring <00:02:35.320>the <00:02:35.460>flow <00:02:35.860>of <00:02:36.066>international <00:02:36.713>shipping.'

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<v Rich>The <00:02:37.924>tape <00:02:38.233>calls <00:02:38.553>it <00:02:38.780>a <00:02:38.940>hundred <00:02:39.300>bucks <00:02:39.760>and <00:02:40.011>climbing.

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<v Sarah>Ariella <00:02:42.147>Roitman <00:02:42.601>at <00:02:42.674>The <00:02:42.782>Jerusalem <00:02:43.310>Post <00:02:43.747>is <00:02:43.898>tracking <00:02:44.318>this.

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<v Sarah>Tehran <00:02:45.514>has <00:02:45.734>now <00:02:45.916>rejected <00:02:46.434>the <00:02:46.574>Iraqi-led <00:02:47.270>ceasefire <00:02:47.822>deal <00:02:48.094>by <00:02:48.334>name, <00:02:49.014>according <00:02:49.427>to <00:02:49.554>The <00:02:49.670>Jerusalem <00:02:50.270>Post.

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<v Sarah>That <00:02:51.114>matters <00:02:51.584>because <00:02:51.987>it's <00:02:52.214>the <00:02:52.401>first <00:02:52.814>specific <00:02:53.518>mediation <00:02:54.150>framework <00:02:54.694>a <00:02:54.814>party <00:02:55.254>has <00:02:55.436>publicly <00:02:55.991>turned <00:02:56.414>down, <00:02:57.174>instead <00:02:57.507>of <00:02:57.646>just <00:02:57.814>letting <00:02:58.121>it <00:02:58.267>stall.

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<v Rich>And <00:02:59.444>Baghdad <00:02:59.994>was <00:03:00.194>the <00:03:00.334>one <00:03:00.638>back-channel <00:03:01.262>that <00:03:01.518>wasn't <00:03:01.912>Washington <00:03:02.601>or <00:03:02.894>Doha.

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<v Rich>Iraq <00:03:04.396>actually <00:03:04.954>had <00:03:05.178>standing <00:03:05.566>with <00:03:05.774>both <00:03:06.174>sides — <00:03:07.014>and <00:03:07.214>Iran <00:03:07.582>just <00:03:07.843>buried <00:03:08.294>the <00:03:08.462>deal <00:03:08.686>with <00:03:08.894>Iraq's <00:03:09.374>name <00:03:09.790>stapled <00:03:10.387>to <00:03:10.547>it.

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<v Sarah>We <00:03:10.997>should <00:03:11.187>be <00:03:11.354>precise <00:03:11.814>about <00:03:12.062>authority

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<v Sarah>though: <00:03:13.406>what <00:03:13.604>exactly <00:03:14.134>was <00:03:14.324>Baghdad <00:03:14.867>carrying

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<v Sarah>and <00:03:15.894>was <00:03:16.041>it <00:03:16.174>Iraq's <00:03:16.694>own <00:03:16.879>initiative <00:03:17.587>or <00:03:17.745>Washington's <00:03:18.404>message <00:03:18.947>in <00:03:19.081>an <00:03:19.214>Iraqi <00:03:19.685>envelope?

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<v Sarah>The <00:03:21.038>Post <00:03:21.347>calls <00:03:21.667>it <00:03:21.827>an <00:03:22.014>Iraqi-led <00:03:23.001>US <00:03:23.470>deal.

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<v Sarah>Those <00:03:24.534>are <00:03:24.674>two <00:03:24.766>different <00:03:25.145>things.

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<v Rich>Either <00:03:26.494>way, <00:03:27.134>who <00:03:27.294>in <00:03:27.374>Baghdad <00:03:27.974>takes <00:03:28.214>the <00:03:28.374>hit <00:03:28.534>for <00:03:28.718>this?

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<v Rich>If <00:03:29.814>you <00:03:29.974>put <00:03:30.110>your <00:03:30.227>credibility <00:03:30.867>on <00:03:31.114>a <00:03:31.282>framework <00:03:31.603>Tehran <00:03:32.085>publicly <00:03:32.747>kills

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<v Rich>that's <00:03:33.814>a <00:03:33.950>cost — <00:03:34.834>and <00:03:34.921>it <00:03:35.054>lands <00:03:35.534>after <00:03:35.987>we <00:03:36.154>already <00:03:36.627>heard <00:03:36.934>the <00:03:37.161>US <00:03:37.434>say <00:03:37.641>it's <00:03:37.814>launching <00:03:38.244>strikes <00:03:38.798>over <00:03:39.074>the <00:03:39.178>shipping <00:03:39.614>lanes. <00:03:40.164>Talking's <00:03:41.454>done.

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<v Sarah>I'd <00:03:42.622>only <00:03:42.862>call <00:03:43.086>this <00:03:43.270>framework <00:03:43.870>dead.

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<v Sarah>The <00:03:44.944>broader <00:03:45.361>track <00:03:45.721>could <00:03:45.894>still <00:03:46.174>survive.

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<v Sarah>But <00:03:47.361>Rubio <00:03:47.758>says <00:03:48.094>Iran <00:03:48.494>isn't <00:03:48.867>ready <00:03:49.174>for <00:03:49.334>a <00:03:49.454>deal, <00:03:50.134>and <00:03:50.302>that <00:03:50.534>gives <00:03:50.787>us <00:03:50.954>firmer <00:03:51.347>evidence <00:03:51.806>that <00:03:52.014>Iran's <00:03:52.545>principals <00:03:53.100>stayed <00:03:53.438>home <00:03:53.734>for <00:03:53.894>a <00:03:54.014>reason.

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<v Rich>Rubio <00:03:55.598>says <00:03:55.886>they're <00:03:56.154>not <00:03:56.374>ready <00:03:56.614>for <00:03:56.774>a <00:03:56.894>deal.

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<v Rich>There's <00:03:57.987>no <00:03:58.142>mechanism <00:03:58.622>left <00:03:58.867>on <00:03:58.994>the <00:03:59.134>table, <00:03:59.814>and <00:04:00.014>now <00:04:00.307>we <00:04:00.446>have <00:04:00.614>a <00:04:00.721>named <00:04:01.126>rejection <00:04:01.881>on <00:04:02.134>the <00:04:02.311>record.

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<v Rich>Call <00:04:03.641>it <00:04:03.726>what <00:04:03.907>it <00:04:04.121>is — <00:04:04.754>the <00:04:04.865>diplomatic <00:04:05.454>phase <00:04:05.945>closed <00:04:06.558>this <00:04:06.894>week.

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<v Rich>Baghdad <00:04:08.454>was <00:04:08.594>the <00:04:08.750>last <00:04:09.214>venue <00:04:09.662>with <00:04:09.894>a <00:04:10.027>pulse.

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<v Sarah>From <00:04:12.359>Al <00:04:12.526>Jazeera:

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<v Quote>The <00:04:14.519>United <00:04:14.912>Nations <00:04:15.312>nuclear <00:04:15.742>watchdog <00:04:16.422>has <00:04:16.590>said <00:04:16.809>in <00:04:16.902>a <00:04:17.022>report <00:04:17.518>that <00:04:17.678>Iran <00:04:18.102>has <00:04:18.268>stored <00:04:18.606>most <00:04:18.889>of <00:04:19.002>its <00:04:19.216>highly <00:04:19.466>enriched <00:04:19.902>uranium <00:04:20.515>at <00:04:20.675>an <00:04:20.822>underground <00:04:21.308>tunnel

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<v Quote>complex <00:04:22.249>at <00:04:22.362>its <00:04:22.595>Isfahan <00:04:23.084>facility

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<v Quote>urging <00:04:24.371>Tehran <00:04:24.835>to <00:04:24.982>allow <00:04:25.242>inspections <00:04:25.982>as <00:04:26.169>it <00:04:26.302>faces <00:04:26.752>growing <00:04:27.155>pressure <00:04:27.614>from <00:04:27.762>the <00:04:27.868>United <00:04:28.199>States <00:04:28.590>over <00:04:28.822>its <00:04:28.992>nuclear <00:04:29.390>programme.

54
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<v Sarah>The <00:04:30.539>IAEA <00:04:31.179>report <00:04:31.710>circulated <00:04:32.272>to <00:04:32.419>members <00:04:32.779>Friday <00:04:33.403>puts <00:04:34.027>most <00:04:34.246>of <00:04:34.379>Iran's <00:04:34.916>highly <00:04:35.321>enriched <00:04:35.889>uranium <00:04:36.432>at <00:04:36.599>one <00:04:36.859>place: <00:04:37.792>an <00:04:37.946>underground <00:04:38.505>tunnel <00:04:38.859>complex <00:04:39.472>at

55
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<v Sarah>Isfahan. <00:04:40.679>And <00:04:40.891>they're <00:04:41.156>enriching <00:04:41.659>to <00:04:41.979>60 <00:04:42.349>percent <00:04:42.752>there — <00:04:43.539>a <00:04:43.646>short <00:04:44.043>step <00:04:44.347>from <00:04:44.589>weapons-grade.

56
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<v Sarah>Keep <00:04:46.319>the <00:04:46.446>focus <00:04:46.832>on <00:04:47.019>Isfahan <00:04:47.563>here.

57
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<v Sarah>This <00:04:48.592>is <00:04:48.739>one <00:04:48.886>of <00:04:48.959>the <00:04:49.072>three <00:04:49.406>sites <00:04:49.783>Washington <00:04:50.267>said <00:04:50.512>it <00:04:50.679>obliterated <00:04:51.392>in <00:04:51.547>last <00:04:51.787>year's <00:04:52.105>twelve-day <00:04:52.659>war — <00:04:53.519>and <00:04:53.619>the <00:04:53.939>IAEA <00:04:54.843>says <00:04:55.152>it <00:04:55.312>still <00:04:55.619>can't <00:04:55.859>get

58
00:04:56.037 --> 00:04:57.767
<v Sarah>inspectors <00:04:56.726>in.

59
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<v Rich>Obliterated. <00:04:58.930>And <00:04:59.300>yet <00:04:59.440>the <00:04:59.571>watchdog's <00:05:00.260>writing <00:05:00.600>reports <00:05:01.060>about <00:05:01.280>the <00:05:01.410>uranium <00:05:01.932>that's <00:05:02.205>supposedly <00:05:02.940>still <00:05:03.390>sitting <00:05:03.780>under <00:05:04.033>it.

60
00:05:04.851 --> 00:05:06.940
<v Rich>Somebody <00:05:05.487>oversold <00:05:06.092>that <00:05:06.273>airstrike.

61
00:05:07.646 --> 00:05:10.946
<v Rich>And <00:05:07.906>'urges' — <00:05:08.898>that's <00:05:09.146>the <00:05:09.306>whole <00:05:09.553>enforcement <00:05:10.136>toolkit?

62
00:05:11.046 --> 00:05:13.826
<v Rich>The <00:05:11.426>agency <00:05:11.973>knows <00:05:12.326>the <00:05:12.448>material's <00:05:13.093>there

63
00:05:13.866 --> 00:05:16.786
<v Rich>doesn't <00:05:14.178>know <00:05:14.333>where <00:05:14.546>a <00:05:14.672>fourth <00:05:14.990>enrichment <00:05:15.490>site <00:05:15.794>even <00:05:16.119>is

64
00:05:16.846 --> 00:05:21.332
<v Rich>and <00:05:17.086>all <00:05:17.319>it <00:05:17.486>can <00:05:17.746>do <00:05:17.986>is <00:05:18.217>politely <00:05:18.886>ask <00:05:19.289>Tehran <00:05:19.986>to <00:05:20.226>open <00:05:20.566>the <00:05:20.722>door.

65
00:05:21.332 --> 00:05:23.186
<v Sarah>That's <00:05:22.086>the <00:05:22.226>gap, <00:05:22.706>Rich.

66
00:05:23.266 --> 00:05:29.746
<v Sarah>The <00:05:23.563>report <00:05:23.977>confirms <00:05:24.706>60 <00:05:25.086>percent <00:05:25.546>and <00:05:25.733>names <00:05:26.086>the <00:05:26.226>site, <00:05:27.046>but <00:05:27.146>the <00:05:27.346>agency <00:05:27.866>can <00:05:28.050>only <00:05:28.366>request <00:05:28.877>access.

67
00:05:29.853 --> 00:05:36.386
<v Sarah>It <00:05:30.106>can't <00:05:30.366>mandate <00:05:30.839>it — <00:05:31.397>especially <00:05:31.946>the <00:05:32.106>day <00:05:32.266>after <00:05:32.535>Tehran <00:05:32.992>walked <00:05:33.298>away <00:05:33.474>from <00:05:33.686>the <00:05:33.826>Iraqi <00:05:34.290>ceasefire <00:05:34.919>we <00:05:35.074>just <00:05:35.316>covered.

68
00:05:36.453 --> 00:05:43.746
<v Rich>Right. <00:05:37.066>A <00:05:37.306>country <00:05:37.634>that <00:05:37.890>just <00:05:38.203>buried <00:05:38.706>a <00:05:38.898>mediation <00:05:39.266>deal <00:05:39.666>is <00:05:39.866>going <00:05:40.093>to <00:05:40.194>roll <00:05:40.446>out <00:05:40.666>the <00:05:40.846>welcome <00:05:41.326>mat <00:05:41.546>for <00:05:41.739>inspectors. <00:05:42.786>Sure.

69
00:05:44.689 --> 00:05:46.689
<v Sarah>Al <00:05:44.909>Jazeera, <00:05:45.457>with <00:05:45.702>Sarah <00:05:46.033>Shamim:

70
00:05:47.173 --> 00:05:54.693
<v Quote>Maritime <00:05:47.781>insurance <00:05:48.270>prices <00:05:48.661>have <00:05:48.910>soared <00:05:49.349>amid <00:05:49.769>shipping <00:05:50.100>disruptions <00:05:50.640>in <00:05:50.713>the <00:05:50.819>Strait <00:05:51.120>of <00:05:51.221>Hormuz <00:05:51.913>and <00:05:52.253>are <00:05:52.437>also <00:05:52.750>rising <00:05:53.133>for <00:05:53.313>vessels <00:05:53.783>traversing <00:05:54.233>the <00:05:54.393>Bab

71
00:05:54.746 --> 00:06:01.493
<v Quote>al-Mandeb <00:05:55.453>strait <00:05:56.101>with <00:05:56.341>both <00:05:56.586>waterways – <00:05:57.529>critical <00:05:57.866>channels <00:05:58.313>for <00:05:58.393>the <00:05:58.499>global <00:05:58.843>economy – <00:05:59.713>now <00:05:59.946>theatres <00:06:00.426>of <00:06:00.633>war.

72
00:06:01.586 --> 00:06:08.693
<v Quote>Yemen’s <00:06:02.213>Iran-aligned <00:06:02.973>Houthi <00:06:03.306>group <00:06:03.637>announced <00:06:04.253>a <00:06:04.355>blockade <00:06:04.880>of <00:06:05.000>Saudi <00:06:05.393>Arabian <00:06:05.880>ports <00:06:06.233>and <00:06:06.373>ships <00:06:06.800>in <00:06:06.893>the <00:06:07.093>Bab <00:06:07.386>al-Mandeb <00:06:08.013>strait

73
00:06:08.733 --> 00:06:12.133
<v Quote>which <00:06:08.969>connects <00:06:09.273>the <00:06:09.393>Red <00:06:09.673>Sea <00:06:10.000>to <00:06:10.073>the <00:06:10.190>Indian <00:06:10.586>Ocean <00:06:11.143>earlier <00:06:11.525>this <00:06:11.717>week.

74
00:06:13.030 --> 00:06:21.782
<v Rich>Finally, <00:06:13.342>the <00:06:13.522>numbers <00:06:13.982>I've <00:06:14.118>been <00:06:14.252>chasing <00:06:14.842>all <00:06:15.222>week: <00:06:16.006>insurance <00:06:16.635>rates <00:06:16.942>for <00:06:17.126>both <00:06:17.446>Hormuz <00:06:18.082>and <00:06:18.362>Bab <00:06:18.689>al-Mandeb, <00:06:19.742>and <00:06:19.969>Al <00:06:20.252>Jazeera <00:06:20.802>has <00:06:21.014>them <00:06:21.204>climbing.

75
00:06:21.942 --> 00:06:24.022
<v Rich>Both <00:06:22.642>straits <00:06:23.142>at <00:06:23.430>once.

76
00:06:24.235 --> 00:06:29.142
<v Rich>In <00:06:24.722>one <00:06:24.982>story, <00:06:25.482>the <00:06:25.606>Gulf's <00:06:26.009>whole <00:06:26.422>seaborne <00:06:26.998>exit <00:06:27.422>looks <00:06:27.695>compromised.

77
00:06:29.162 --> 00:06:30.742
<v Sarah>And <00:06:29.286>note <00:06:29.602>who's <00:06:29.906>claiming <00:06:30.342>what.

78
00:06:30.922 --> 00:06:36.422
<v Sarah>The <00:06:31.622>IRGC <00:06:32.390>said <00:06:32.635>Thursday <00:06:33.094>that <00:06:33.275>an <00:06:33.446>explosion <00:06:34.082>set <00:06:34.302>a <00:06:34.399>tanker <00:06:34.802>ablaze <00:06:35.282>off <00:06:35.558>Oman

79
00:06:36.462 --> 00:06:38.262
<v Sarah>two <00:06:36.630>more <00:06:36.872>vessels <00:06:37.268>turned <00:06:37.622>back

80
00:06:38.302 --> 00:06:41.142
<v Sarah>and <00:06:38.502>all <00:06:38.795>three <00:06:39.110>were <00:06:39.348>acting <00:06:39.662>under <00:06:39.995>US <00:06:40.342>orders.

81
00:06:41.254 --> 00:06:47.303
<v Sarah>That's <00:06:41.976>Tehran's <00:06:42.322>account, <00:06:42.862>carried <00:06:43.195>by <00:06:43.362>Iranian <00:06:43.915>media — <00:06:44.862>one <00:06:45.062>source, <00:06:46.002>one <00:06:46.310>side.

82
00:06:47.356 --> 00:06:50.543
<v Rich>Sarah, <00:06:47.903>the <00:06:48.063>underwriters <00:06:48.703>don't <00:06:48.951>care <00:06:49.196>whose <00:06:49.513>account <00:06:49.890>it <00:06:50.076>is.

83
00:06:50.583 --> 00:06:52.823
<v Rich>They're <00:06:50.873>pricing <00:06:51.243>the <00:06:51.383>risk <00:06:51.760>either <00:06:52.203>way.

84
00:06:52.887 --> 00:06:57.943
<v Rich>When <00:06:53.210>Lloyd's <00:06:53.687>reprices <00:06:54.343>every <00:06:54.823>hull <00:06:55.183>through <00:06:55.523>two <00:06:55.770>chokepoints <00:06:56.498>simultaneously

85
00:06:57.991 --> 00:07:03.245
<v Rich>that's <00:06:58.283>the <00:06:58.400>market <00:06:58.800>saying <00:06:59.163>the <00:06:59.303>war <00:06:59.623>is <00:06:59.895>real <00:07:00.430>regardless <00:07:01.356>of <00:07:01.503>who's <00:07:01.756>lying <00:07:02.063>about <00:07:02.303>the <00:07:02.480>tanker.

86
00:07:03.245 --> 00:07:06.263
<v Sarah>Fair — <00:07:04.403>but <00:07:04.631>keep <00:07:04.843>the <00:07:04.983>actors <00:07:05.525>distinct.

87
00:07:06.343 --> 00:07:14.663
<v Sarah>The <00:07:06.623>Houthis <00:07:07.099>declared <00:07:07.423>a <00:07:07.525>blockade <00:07:08.050>of <00:07:08.170>Saudi <00:07:08.583>ports <00:07:09.010>in <00:07:09.163>Bab <00:07:09.516>al-Mandeb <00:07:10.231>this <00:07:10.487>week, <00:07:11.183>while <00:07:11.463>Tehran <00:07:11.996>wants <00:07:12.330>ships <00:07:12.714>consulting <00:07:13.303>it <00:07:13.490>in <00:07:13.623>Hormuz.

88
00:07:14.736 --> 00:07:19.943
<v Sarah>Washington, <00:07:15.727>meanwhile, <00:07:16.076>is <00:07:16.213>running <00:07:16.503>a <00:07:16.623>naval <00:07:16.876>blockade <00:07:17.356>of <00:07:17.543>Iran-linked <00:07:18.253>vessels <00:07:18.770>in <00:07:18.903>a <00:07:19.023>third <00:07:19.290>waterway.

89
00:07:20.071 --> 00:07:25.463
<v Sarah>They <00:07:20.623>may <00:07:20.807>feed <00:07:21.083>the <00:07:21.207>same <00:07:21.511>insurance <00:07:22.010>spike, <00:07:22.803>but <00:07:22.999>they're <00:07:23.276>three <00:07:23.596>separate <00:07:24.118>operations.

90
00:07:25.516 --> 00:07:28.984
<v Rich>Right, <00:07:26.083>and <00:07:26.330>every <00:07:26.703>one <00:07:26.876>of <00:07:27.015>them <00:07:27.239>ends <00:07:27.703>at <00:07:27.903>the <00:07:28.119>same <00:07:28.599>pump.

91
00:07:29.183 --> 00:07:33.063
<v Rich>Oil <00:07:29.833>crossed <00:07:30.223>a <00:07:30.293>hundred <00:07:30.543>dollars <00:07:30.903>a <00:07:31.029>barrel <00:07:31.383>on <00:07:31.633>exactly <00:07:32.359>this.

92
00:07:33.123 --> 00:07:39.463
<v Rich>The <00:07:33.383>seaborne <00:07:34.023>siege <00:07:34.476>is <00:07:34.643>already <00:07:35.103>being <00:07:35.367>paid <00:07:35.723>for, <00:07:36.316>in <00:07:36.487>real <00:07:36.839>time, <00:07:37.516>by <00:07:37.713>anybody <00:07:38.383>who <00:07:38.583>buys <00:07:38.999>fuel.

93
00:07:40.190 --> 00:07:41.150
<v Sarah>Here's <00:07:40.450>The <00:07:40.572>National:

94
00:07:41.757 --> 00:07:46.797
<v Quote>Secretary <00:07:42.264>of <00:07:42.370>State <00:07:42.704>Marco <00:07:43.117>Rubio <00:07:43.581>expressed <00:07:44.210>doubt <00:07:44.517>about <00:07:44.786>Tehran's <00:07:45.317>readiness <00:07:45.730>to <00:07:45.893>negotiate

95
00:07:46.843 --> 00:07:50.077
<v Quote>citing <00:07:47.157>a <00:07:47.267>history <00:07:47.810>of <00:07:47.973>violating <00:07:48.528>agreements <00:07:49.090>after <00:07:49.389>they <00:07:49.537>are <00:07:49.647>reached.

96
00:07:50.269 --> 00:07:56.157
<v Quote>Iran's <00:07:51.163>Revolutionary <00:07:51.824>Guard <00:07:52.207>claimed <00:07:52.607>strikes <00:07:53.010>on <00:07:53.250>US <00:07:53.570>military <00:07:54.048>facilities <00:07:54.584>in <00:07:54.717>Kuwait <00:07:55.217>and <00:07:55.346>Jordan

97
00:07:56.197 --> 00:07:57.837
<v Quote>targeting <00:07:56.617>air <00:07:56.847>defence <00:07:57.257>systems

98
00:07:57.906 --> 00:07:59.357
<v Quote>drones <00:07:58.377>and <00:07:58.605>infrastructure.

99
00:08:00.006 --> 00:08:05.557
<v Rich>Rubio <00:08:00.197>says <00:08:00.613>Iran's <00:08:01.197>'paying <00:08:01.437>a <00:08:01.557>price <00:08:02.050>every <00:08:02.586>single <00:08:03.064>night' — <00:08:03.770>twelfth <00:08:04.104>consecutive <00:08:04.890>night <00:08:05.237>now.

100
00:08:05.733 --> 00:08:11.517
<v Rich>Fine. <00:08:06.617>But <00:08:06.970>he's <00:08:07.317>also <00:08:07.657>the <00:08:07.757>one <00:08:07.937>who <00:08:08.165>said <00:08:08.457>you <00:08:08.817>can't <00:08:09.109>make <00:08:09.277>a <00:08:09.397>deal <00:08:09.749>with <00:08:09.923>people <00:08:10.237>who <00:08:10.417>won't <00:08:10.741>keep <00:08:11.050>it

101
00:08:11.577 --> 00:08:15.797
<v Rich>right <00:08:11.944>after <00:08:12.368>Tehran <00:08:12.997>buried <00:08:13.497>the <00:08:13.637>Iraqi <00:08:14.087>channel <00:08:14.517>we <00:08:14.709>just <00:08:14.897>covered.

102
00:08:15.845 --> 00:08:17.397
<v Sarah>Careful <00:08:16.149>with <00:08:16.297>the <00:08:16.408>sequencing, <00:08:17.061>Rich.

103
00:08:17.544 --> 00:08:22.997
<v Sarah>Rubio's <00:08:18.557>'not <00:08:18.890>ready <00:08:19.197>for <00:08:19.357>a <00:08:19.461>deal' <00:08:19.877>line <00:08:20.277>is <00:08:20.517>via <00:08:20.797>The <00:08:20.988>National — <00:08:22.077>and <00:08:22.250>remember

104
00:08:23.061 --> 00:08:27.317
<v Sarah>mediators <00:08:23.677>had <00:08:23.937>a <00:08:24.112>roadmap <00:08:24.397>for <00:08:24.565>both <00:08:24.837>sides <00:08:25.277>and <00:08:25.477>open <00:08:25.864>lines <00:08:26.217>out <00:08:26.304>of <00:08:26.417>Switzerland.

105
00:08:27.450 --> 00:08:31.797
<v Sarah>So <00:08:27.757>which <00:08:27.977>one <00:08:28.090>is <00:08:28.277>real: <00:08:28.957>the <00:08:29.130>Swiss <00:08:29.464>paper <00:08:29.904>or <00:08:30.210>Rubio's <00:08:30.837>doubt?

106
00:08:31.837 --> 00:08:34.677
<v Rich>The <00:08:32.010>Swiss <00:08:32.344>thing <00:08:32.757>was <00:08:33.037>a <00:08:33.157>promissory <00:08:33.957>note.

107
00:08:34.744 --> 00:08:37.229
<v Rich>Rubio <00:08:35.125>just <00:08:35.381>told <00:08:35.657>you <00:08:35.757>the <00:08:35.944>check <00:08:36.357>bounces.

108
00:08:37.229 --> 00:08:44.357
<v Sarah>I'd <00:08:37.610>be <00:08:37.757>careful <00:08:38.069>with <00:08:38.237>his <00:08:38.424>claim <00:08:38.789>that <00:08:38.979>internal <00:08:39.533>divisions <00:08:40.064>in <00:08:40.208>Tehran <00:08:40.797>are <00:08:40.987>complicating <00:08:41.744>their <00:08:41.941>decisions — <00:08:43.045>that's <00:08:43.397>Rubio's <00:08:43.957>read

109
00:08:44.417 --> 00:08:46.037
<v Sarah>and <00:08:44.650>it <00:08:44.817>isn't <00:08:45.393>confirmed.

110
00:08:46.117 --> 00:08:52.197
<v Sarah>The <00:08:46.490>IRGC <00:08:47.201>answered <00:08:47.597>him <00:08:47.774>anyway, <00:08:48.481>claiming <00:08:48.897>strikes <00:08:49.397>on <00:08:49.664>US <00:08:49.935>facilities <00:08:50.570>in <00:08:50.746>Kuwait <00:08:51.197>and <00:08:51.386>Jordan.

111
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<v Sarah>Jordan <00:08:52.805>says <00:08:53.050>it <00:08:53.205>downed <00:08:53.541>four <00:08:53.859>missiles <00:08:54.397>and <00:08:54.617>six <00:08:54.986>drones <00:08:55.450>in <00:08:55.637>24 <00:08:56.290>hours.

112
00:08:57.584 --> 00:08:59.077
<v Rich>Spare <00:08:57.744>me <00:08:57.997>'paying <00:08:58.297>the <00:08:58.464>price.'

113
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<v Rich>Kuwait <00:08:59.677>and <00:08:59.854>Jordan <00:09:00.217>are <00:09:00.333>intercepting <00:09:00.987>Iranian <00:09:01.546>drones <00:09:02.021>over <00:09:02.317>their <00:09:02.597>own <00:09:02.926>airspace — <00:09:03.917>and <00:09:04.106>Tehran <00:09:04.597>isn't <00:09:04.937>the <00:09:05.061>only <00:09:05.377>one <00:09:05.637>stuck <00:09:06.069>with <00:09:06.245>that <00:09:06.501>bill.

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<v Host>Have <00:09:07.873>feedback, <00:09:08.518>story <00:09:08.918>ideas, <00:09:09.304>or <00:09:09.391>corrections?

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<v Host>Email <00:09:10.851>us <00:09:11.091>at <00:09:11.358>iranwardaily <00:09:12.424>at <00:09:12.591>lantern <00:09:13.109>podcasts <00:09:13.931>dot <00:09:14.171>com.

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<v Host>We'd <00:09:15.363>like <00:09:15.518>to <00:09:15.603>hear <00:09:15.763>from <00:09:15.951>you.

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<v Host>You'll <00:09:17.326>find <00:09:17.571>links <00:09:17.891>to <00:09:18.038>every <00:09:18.305>story <00:09:18.691>in <00:09:18.838>today's <00:09:19.171>briefing <00:09:19.651>in <00:09:19.778>the <00:09:19.886>show <00:09:20.145>notes.

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<v Host>If <00:09:21.070>something <00:09:21.392>caught <00:09:21.630>your <00:09:21.806>attention, <00:09:22.670>head <00:09:22.838>there <00:09:23.065>to <00:09:23.166>read <00:09:23.438>more.

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<v Host>That's <00:09:24.958>Iran <00:09:25.178>War <00:09:25.425>Daily <00:09:25.798>for <00:09:25.975>Friday, <00:09:26.382>July <00:09:26.798>24.

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<v Host>This <00:09:28.371>is <00:09:28.718>a <00:09:28.848>Lantern <00:09:29.298>Podcast.