Oil crosses a hundred dollars, Tehran turns down a ceasefire by name, and the war just moved out onto the water. If you're just joining us: even before this round, the shipping war had spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian pressure there was disrupting oil flows, U.S. threats were aimed at Iranian infrastructure, and Houthi threats around Bab el-Mandeb were forcing tanker diversions. The question was whether that maritime pressure would stay a bargaining lever — or turn into a second front. This is Iran War Daily. Today, a rejected Baghdad deal, the IAEA pointing at Isfahan, and an insurance market saying what the podium won't. We start with the ceasefire track: what exactly collapsed, and who Baghdad was speaking for. We'll keep tracking Hormuz-to-Red Sea maritime escalation — follow the show so the next update finds you. Elena Becatoros, Fatma Khaled and Collin Binkley, writing in ABC13:
The U.S. military announced Thursday that it is conducting the 13th night of strikes against Iran as clashes escalate over shipping routes. Earlier Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, potentially widening the Iran war as international oil topped $100 a barrel.
One hundred dollars a barrel. First time since May, and it printed the second the Houthis claimed two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The market doesn't care about strike counts — it cares that oil can't get out. And that's a Houthi claim, Rich: two Saudi tankers, based on their own statement, with no second source yet. What we can stand behind comes from CENTCOM. It says this is the 13th night of strikes on Iran, meant to, quote, degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial vessels. Thirteen nights to, what, reopen Hormuz? A fifth of the world's oil moved through that strait in peacetime, and now the Houthis are threatening a second chokepoint. The whole seaborne exit from the Gulf is under pressure at once. The maritime front just widened from Hormuz to the Red Sea. CENTCOM confirms night thirteen is under way. I'd keep Tehran and the Houthis on separate ledgers there, though. Iran closed Hormuz; the Red Sea claim is coming from Sanaa. Separate flags, same result at the pump. Washington calls it 'restoring the flow of international shipping.' The tape calls it a hundred bucks and climbing. Ariella Roitman at The Jerusalem Post is tracking this. Tehran has now rejected the Iraqi-led ceasefire deal by name, according to The Jerusalem Post. That matters because it's the first specific mediation framework a party has publicly turned down, instead of just letting it stall. And Baghdad was the one back-channel that wasn't Washington or Doha. Iraq actually had standing with both sides — and Iran just buried the deal with Iraq's name stapled to it. We should be precise about authority, though: what exactly was Baghdad carrying, and was it Iraq's own initiative or Washington's message in an Iraqi envelope? The Post calls it an Iraqi-led US deal. Those are two different things. Either way, who in Baghdad takes the hit for this? If you put your credibility on a framework Tehran publicly kills, that's a cost — and it lands after we already heard the US say it's launching strikes over the shipping lanes. Talking's done. I'd only call this framework dead. The broader track could still survive. But Rubio says Iran isn't ready for a deal, and that gives us firmer evidence that Iran's principals stayed home for a reason. Rubio says they're not ready for a deal. There's no mechanism left on the table, and now we have a named rejection on the record. Call it what it is — the diplomatic phase closed this week. Baghdad was the last venue with a pulse. From Al Jazeera:
The United Nations nuclear watchdog has said in a report that Iran has stored most of its highly enriched uranium at an underground tunnel complex at its Isfahan facility, urging Tehran to allow inspections as it faces growing pressure from the United States over its nuclear programme.
The IAEA report circulated to members Friday puts most of Iran's highly enriched uranium at one place: an underground tunnel complex at Isfahan. And they're enriching to 60 percent there — a short step from weapons-grade. Keep the focus on Isfahan here. This is one of the three sites Washington said it obliterated in last year's twelve-day war — and the IAEA says it still can't get inspectors in. Obliterated. And yet the watchdog's writing reports about the uranium that's supposedly still sitting under it. Somebody oversold that airstrike. And 'urges' — that's the whole enforcement toolkit? The agency knows the material's there, doesn't know where a fourth enrichment site even is, and all it can do is politely ask Tehran to open the door. That's the gap, Rich. The report confirms 60 percent and names the site, but the agency can only request access. It can't mandate it — especially the day after Tehran walked away from the Iraqi ceasefire we just covered. Right. A country that just buried a mediation deal is going to roll out the welcome mat for inspectors. Sure. Al Jazeera, with Sarah Shamim:
Maritime insurance prices have soared amid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and are also rising for vessels traversing the Bab al-Mandeb strait, with both waterways – critical channels for the global economy – now theatres of war. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group announced a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports and ships in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, earlier this week.
Finally, the numbers I've been chasing all week: insurance rates for both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, and Al Jazeera has them climbing. Both straits at once. In one story, the Gulf's whole seaborne exit looks compromised. And note who's claiming what. The IRGC said Thursday that an explosion set a tanker ablaze off Oman, two more vessels turned back, and all three were acting under US orders. That's Tehran's account, carried by Iranian media — one source, one side. Sarah, the underwriters don't care whose account it is. They're pricing the risk either way. When Lloyd's reprices every hull through two chokepoints simultaneously, that's the market saying the war is real regardless of who's lying about the tanker. Fair — but keep the actors distinct. The Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi ports in Bab al-Mandeb this week, while Tehran wants ships consulting it in Hormuz. Washington, meanwhile, is running a naval blockade of Iran-linked vessels in a third waterway. They may feed the same insurance spike, but they're three separate operations. Right, and every one of them ends at the same pump. Oil crossed a hundred dollars a barrel on exactly this. The seaborne siege is already being paid for, in real time, by anybody who buys fuel. Here's The National:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed doubt about Tehran's readiness to negotiate, citing a history of violating agreements after they are reached. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed strikes on US military facilities in Kuwait and Jordan, targeting air defence systems, drones and infrastructure.
Rubio says Iran's 'paying a price every single night' — twelfth consecutive night now. Fine. But he's also the one who said you can't make a deal with people who won't keep it, right after Tehran buried the Iraqi channel we just covered. Careful with the sequencing, Rich. Rubio's 'not ready for a deal' line is via The National — and remember, mediators had a roadmap for both sides and open lines out of Switzerland. So which one is real: the Swiss paper or Rubio's doubt? The Swiss thing was a promissory note. Rubio just told you the check bounces. I'd be careful with his claim that internal divisions in Tehran are complicating their decisions — that's Rubio's read, and it isn't confirmed. The IRGC answered him anyway, claiming strikes on US facilities in Kuwait and Jordan. Jordan says it downed four missiles and six drones in 24 hours. Spare me 'paying the price.' Kuwait and Jordan are intercepting Iranian drones over their own airspace — and Tehran isn't the only one stuck with that bill. Have feedback, story ideas, or corrections? Email us at iranwardaily at lantern podcasts dot com. We'd like to hear from you.
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That's Iran War Daily for Friday, July 24. This is a Lantern Podcast.