Trump says: make a deal, or face the consequences. Tehran says no deal talks while the threats keep coming. And in between them sits the Strait of Hormuz. If you're just joining us: the deal track started with the June 18 Islamabad memorandum — a 60-day framework covering nuclear limits, sanctions relief, maritime security, and regional de-escalation, with Pakistan mediating. Before this latest pressure, the next checkpoint was a July 11 technical meeting, likely in Islamabad, while the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon ceasefire stayed tied to the same package. This is Iran War Daily. Iran just confirmed the Hormuz fees — at a forum in Beijing, of all places — and there's still no name on the new supreme leader. So who exactly closes this deal? Let's start there. This one's from CNBCTV18:
US President Donald Trump has sharply escalated pressure on Iran, warning that Tehran must either agree to a deal or face severe consequences, amid Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's ongoing state funeral and stalled nuclear talks.
The words are on the record now. Trump, at the White House on Monday, July 6th: quote, we're either going to make a deal, or we're going to finish the job. He put a target list on it, too — bridges, energy plants, dismantled in, his phrase, a small part of an afternoon. And he's saying all this while Khamenei's funeral ceremonies are still underway — after a U.S.-Israeli strike killed him on February 28th. So Tehran is hearing a threat to level its power grid during the state funeral for the man Washington just killed. That's the MOU track under real strain. On one side, Trump is threatening to finish the job. On the other, Tehran says — we'll hear this later — that threats block any final talks. That's the sequencing problem sitting right in front of us. Here's what I keep landing on. He'd, quote, rather not affect 91 million people. Sarah, that sounds like an inventory of what he's holding hostage — the bridges, the plants, the people. He's laying out the menu and calling it mercy. This one comes via Lina Altawell at Anadolu Agency. Anadolu Agency is reporting Tehran's condition on the record: no final deal talks if — their words — the threats continue. That answers Trump's warning directly. And watch the timing: his statement came on the 7th, and the Islamabad technical round is reportedly set for the 11th. So four days between the threat and the room. Which means we find out fast whether 'threats continue' is a red line or a talking point. Right — and Araqchi's Geneva 'guiding principles' framing is under real pressure now. He already said a deal wasn't imminent. Now we see whether the process survives Trump's posture long enough to test it. Here's what nobody's answering — who in Tehran even signs off on walking away? Khamenei's sons are at the funeral, and the successor's still nowhere. You can threaten to leave the table, sure, but nobody can point to the person with authority to close a deal either way. Here's Dhwani Mehta at FXStreet:
Speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on Saturday, Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, said that Tehran is considering introducing new service fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while promising “special" treatment for countries that supported Iran during the recent conflict.
Iran's ambassador to China stood up at the World Peace Forum in Beijing and confirmed the Hormuz fees — Rahmani Fazli, on the record, in front of an international audience. The second he said it in Beijing, this stopped being a negotiating whisper. And listen to the wording. Fazli said Iran will 'definitely charge service fees' because the strait sits in its territorial waters — then insisted it shouldn't be called a toll. That distinction matters. International law guarantees transit passage through the strait, so Tehran is trying to stay inside the lines while collecting right at the edge. Right — and 'special treatment for countries that supported Iran during the conflict.' So it's a fee with a friends-and-family tier. Who's the audience for saying that in Beijing? China buys Iranian crude. That's a message priced for one customer in the front row. There's also the Foreign Ministry line running alongside it — mine clearance in the strait is governed by an MOU, and Tehran, quote, sees no need for third-party intervention. That tracks with what we just heard on the Trump warning: Vance says traffic's back to pre-war levels, so Tehran's answer is, we've got this, stay out. And markets aren't exactly buying the drama — WTI's near sixty-nine, on the back foot to start the week. Fazli announces a fee regime in Beijing and the barrel yawns. Either traders think this is posturing, or they think Washington won't let it stick. From Fox News:
Officials are reportedly eyeing Islamabad, Pakistan, as the venue for the next round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran. The technical negotiations are expected to begin July 11 after being delayed by Iran's multiday funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
So the funeral pushes the talks to July 11, and the reported room is Islamabad. Not Oman, not Geneva — Pakistan. That's per Dawn's diplomatic sources — the same paper that first floated Islamabad. Their line: two possible venues, Islamabad and the Burgenstock resort in Switzerland, with Islamabad more likely. And why Islamabad? Because Pakistan brokered the June 18 MOU that set up this whole 60-day framework. You broker the deal, you get to host the sequel. What does Islamabad want for its trouble? Dawn's agenda list tells you a lot: the nuclear program, frozen Iranian assets, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lebanon ceasefire. That's the whole file in one room. Hormuz is sitting on that agenda while Tehran's already announced the fees in Beijing — so the Strait question in Islamabad now comes with an invoice attached. PBS NewsHour, with Nasser Karimi:
Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to make an appearance in the funeral ceremonies, which are unfolding over several days. He is believed to be in hiding after reportedly being wounded in the airstrike that killed his father.
So the brothers show up — Khamenei's other sons at the funeral prayers, hundreds of thousands chanting, and the one man who's actually supposed to be running the country? Nowhere. Mojtaba's a no-show at his own father's funeral. Per PBS and the AP, that's exactly it — Mojtaba Khamenei was designated the successor, but he hasn't surfaced publicly, even as the other sons appeared. So this goes past ceremony: who in Tehran can actually close or kill a deal right now? And that's the part nobody in the negotiating rooms wants to say out loud. Witkoff's sketching terms with people who may not have the authority to bind the guy in hiding. The AP's read is that the family showing their faces signals confidence in their safety. But feeling safe and having clear authority are two different things — and the successor staying dark tells you which one Tehran still isn't sure about. If Iran War Daily helps you stay oriented, consider subscribing wherever you're listening. And if you have a moment, leave a review — it really helps other people find the show.
Next, we're watching the expected July 11 technical round of U.S.-Iran talks, with Islamabad favored as host.
You'll find links to every story we covered today in the show notes, so if you want to dig into one of them, that's the place to start. That's Iran War Daily for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.