Same outbreak, four different totals this week, and a warning that nearly every case caught on the move turned up away from the official crossings. Welcome to Ebola Watch. It's Wednesday, November 11th. We start with Congo's confirmed case count crossing eleven thousand, and why the agencies' numbers don't line up. Then, the UN migration agency on what its screeners are finding along informal routes. One tap on follow, and we'll be back in your ears before you know it.
Araba Incoom, writing for 3News:
Government data released on Tuesday put confirmed infections at 11,042 and the death toll at 5,387, nearly half of those infected.
Monday we told you CIDRAP had 10,910. Now it's 11,042. Which one do I believe? Mostly they differ by cut-off date. ECDC's November 9th update, with data to Saturday the 7th, has 10,920 confirmed cases and 5,323 deaths. WHO's Africa office weekly report for the same date matches that. A CDC update dated today, reported by David Abonyo, gives 10,990 confirmed cases and 5,354 deaths in Congo as of Sunday the 8th. And Congo's government figure, released Tuesday, is the newest at 11,042. ECDC adds that Congo's data are still under review and harmonisation. So every count is going up. Is the pace changing at all? Not according to WHO's Africa office, as summarised by the AFREEQUE newsroom. It added 388 confirmed cases and 197 confirmed deaths in its latest reporting period, with a seven-day average of 65 to 67 new cases a day and no sign of decline. The crude case fatality ratio is 48.7 percent among confirmed cases. North Kivu now accounts for almost a quarter of all cases and explains the entire increase over the last 21 days. And tracing? That's been the weak spot for weeks. It's weaker. WHO says contact follow-up hit its lowest level in weeks at the end of the period, and ECDC puts it at 69.8 percent of identified contacts, against a 95 percent target. WHO points to insecurity in Beni and Bafwasende, where activities remain suspended, and to health worker strikes in Bas-Uélé and Tshopo. Seventy percent. That means roughly three in ten known contacts aren't being followed. Outside Congo, the picture is steadier. Kenya's last contacts are due to finish monitoring today, according to WHO's Africa office. In Nigeria, the NCDC said Tuesday it still has one confirmed imported case and no others, with 28 contacts still monitored and 34 who have completed follow-up. WHO's Africa office says Nigeria's follow-up should end this Friday, November 13th.
Eunice Omollo and Mary Imenza, writing in The Standard:
The International Organization for Migration (IOM), the UN migration agency, says 71 confirmed Ebola cases have been identified along population mobility corridors since the outbreak began, with 95 per cent detected along informal routes.
Ninety-five percent. So the official border posts are almost beside the point? IOM doesn't go that far. At a UN Geneva briefing on Tuesday, its regional Ebola coordinator, Dr Andrew Mbala, said formal points of entry still matter, but surveillance has to reach informal crossings and control points inside the country too. In practice, IOM maps high-risk spots like markets, bus stations, places of worship and displacement camps. IOM says it supports 67 displacement sites in Congo, 50 of them in health zones reporting Ebola cases, and its own release says three confirmed cases were found at displacement sites between October 26th and November 1st. The detail that stopped me was about the dead. Yes. IOM says some communities are using unofficial routes to move deceased people around health controls, and it has intercepted 258 deceased persons along those routes since the outbreak began. Overall it reports 55 million health screenings across Congo and 11 neighbouring countries, about 350,000 a day. And let me guess, the money's short. It is. IOM reports a 59.8 million dollar shortfall against a 110 million dollar regional plan, with nearly half the gap in Congo. Meanwhile, Kenyan and Ugandan port health teams this week assessed the Busia, Malaba and Lwakhakha crossings, and The Standard reports Lwakhakha has been identified as a high-risk entry point. For a traveler, does any of this change what I should do? Not the official advice we've seen. WHO cautions against travel restrictions, warning that measures that discourage people from reporting their movements could push them onto less visible routes. ECDC rates the likelihood of infection for EU and EEA travelers to affected areas as low. If you've been in an affected area, the standard guidance still applies: watch for symptoms for 21 days, and if any appear, self-isolate and contact local health authorities or a clinician.
Here's one for you. Would a short weekly rundown of how WHO, ECDC, CDC and Congo's own counts compare be useful, or is that too much detail? Write to us at ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com.
Tomorrow we'll check whether Kenya's final contacts cleared monitoring, and whether Congo's tracing numbers recover. Thanks for listening to Ebola Watch, part of the Lantern Podcasts family. See you Thursday.