Cera, yesterday we told people more than half of confirmed patients in Congo had died. Is that still true this morning? It depends on whose table you open, and that's where we're starting. This is Ebola Watch for Tuesday, November 3rd. Two stories today. Congo's own numbers, which don't match the ones we aired yesterday. Then Kenya, where patients are going home just as Saudi Arabia closes its door to Kenyan travelers.
Kabonzo Madila Pacheco, writing in French for Congo Inter:
La République démocratique du Congo totalise 10 467 cas confirmés d’Ebola, dont 5 103 décès, depuis le début de l’épidémie, selon le rapport de situation n°170 de l’Institut national de santé publique (INSP), publié le 1er novembre 2026.
In English, that's 10,467 confirmed cases and 5,103 deaths. The source is situation report 170 from Congo's National Institute of Public Health, published Sunday, November 1st, with data through October 31st. Yesterday's number was 5,372 deaths. Today's is lower? Two sources, two answers. Congo Inter puts the fatality rate among confirmed cases at 48.8 percent. Bloomberg, also citing that institute, reported 10,414 cases and 5,372 deaths, or 51.6 percent, after a records review in Ituri added 314 deaths. So which one is right? From what we have, I can't tell you. Neither report says whether situation report 170 already includes the Ituri revision. One summary of the same report, from the UAN World live desk, warns that harmonising data in Ituri means comparing snapshots shouldn't be read as a trend. So the fatality rate is around half, and the sources haven't settled on one figure. Okay. What changed on the day itself? For October 31st, the report records 53 new confirmed cases. That's 32 in Ituri, 18 in North Kivu, three in Haut-Uélé. It also adds 45 confirmed deaths. Twenty-six of those were people who died in the community and were confirmed by post-mortem testing. Nineteen died in treatment centres. Twenty-six people dying at home before anyone tested them. That sounds bad. It tells you cases are still being missed until death. No new health zone was affected, though. It's still 67 zones across eight provinces. And the people doing the tracing? Teams reached 86.6 percent of listed contacts, short of the national target of 95. The bulletin blames disrupted follow-up in Tshopo on a health workers' strike and attacks on response teams. That's where the Bafwasende treatment centre was set on fire on Saturday. It also notes September salaries unpaid at some Ituri checkpoints. Unpaid screeners at checkpoints. That's a weak spot right there.
Angela Oketch, writing in Kenya's Daily Nation, quoting the independent pathologist Dr Ahmed Kalebi:
All eight people infected after the first patient were already in quarantine when they fell ill. They could be spotted and moved for treatment inside the response system, which limited exposure in the community.
So Kenya's cluster didn't spread beyond the people they were already watching. That's his argument. Kenya has nine confirmed cases, two of them deaths, all in one cluster, and no new confirmed infection since October 19th. The Health Ministry says all 135 contacts of the first patient were traced. Who goes home today? The Nation says 46 quarantined contacts are expected out today. That brings the total released to 66 of 118, and the remaining 52 follow later. Five of the seven patients in isolation were waiting on a second negative test, taken Monday. Africa CDC's statement dated today says those five are being discharged today. Does that mean Kenya is clear? No, and Kalebi says so too. Finishing 21 days without symptoms isn't the same as declaring the outbreak over. WHO's bar is 42 days with no confirmed or probable case, counted from recovery or safe burial of the last patient. He also wants answers on the two days between the first patient's isolation and the sample being taken. Now the part a traveler cares about. Saudi Arabia. On Friday, October 30th, Saudi Arabia barred its citizens from travelling to Kenya, suspended all visa categories for Kenyans, and barred anyone who's been in Kenya in the past 21 days. Saudi Arabia says its public health authorities assessed the risk. Kenya's foreign ministry calls the measures disproportionate and asked Riyadh to give WHO its scientific justification within 48 hours. And Africa CDC has picked a side. Clearly. In today's statement, Director General Jean Kaseya calls on Saudi Arabia to review and lift what Africa CDC calls broad restrictions not supported by the evidence. The statement says African countries must not face disproportionate restrictions simply because they are African. It ties that to money. Of about three billion dollars pledged, it says around one billion has been disbursed. And for anyone flying to America, the CDC form starts tonight. At 11:59 p.m. Eastern. Anyone boarding a flight to the U.S. attests they haven't been in Congo in the prior 21 days. Kenya and Uganda aren't part of that form. CDC says the likelihood of spread to the U.S. is low.
If you're one of the contacts heading home in Kenya, or you've had a Saudi trip cancelled this week, we'd like to hear what officials are actually telling you. Email ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com. Notes from listeners help us decide which numbers to check next.
Tomorrow is Wednesday, November 4th. We'll see whether Congo's next situation report settles the death count, and whether Riyadh answers Kenya. Ebola Watch is a Lantern Podcast. Mind the labels on the numbers, and we'll see you tomorrow.