Three hundred and fourteen deaths that had happened, but had never been added to the count. Once health officials in Ituri put them on the books, Congo's death rate among confirmed Ebola cases moved past half. You're listening to Ebola Watch, and it's Monday, November 2nd. First, Congo crosses 5,000 deaths and the fatality rate jumps. Then a WHO scientist on when a Bundibugyo vaccine result might actually arrive.
Deborah Dan-Awoh, writing for Nairametrics:
According to a Bloomberg report, citing the country’s National Institute of Public Health, the outbreak has recorded 10,414 confirmed infections and 5,372 deaths, bringing the case-fatality ratio to 51.6%.
On Friday we had 10,193 and 4,960. That's four hundred more deaths over a weekend? Not over a weekend, and that's the key point. Nairametrics says authorities reviewed mortality records across 97 percent of affected health zones in Ituri and found 314 Ebola deaths that had never been allocated. Those went into the province's total. The fatality rate moved from 48.6 to 51.6 percent within two days, while confirmed cases rose by only 140. So the virus didn't change. The bookkeeping caught up. That's the fair reading, though the article doesn't say when those deaths occurred. The counts also differ by source. Health ministry figures reported Saturday, carried by the Associated Press and others, were 5,026 deaths among 10,351 confirmed. ECDC, with data through October 28th, had 10,274 and 4,992. The Bloomberg figure is the only one we've seen that includes the revision. And the responders are being attacked. They are. teleSUR reports that on Saturday unknown attackers set fire to an Ebola treatment centre in Bafwasende, in Tshopo province. Two isolation rooms were damaged and patients were moved to Nia-Nia in Ituri. The BBC adds that last week a nurse was killed responding to an Ebola alert, after local youths accused health workers of contaminating water sources. Then Nigeria. I saw headlines about two new suspected cases. You did, and here the label matters. Nigeria's disease control centre isolated two suspected cases on Saturday for testing. Nairametrics now reports both tested negative after two rounds of laboratory testing in Adamawa State. So Nigeria's confirmed count stays at one, the woman evacuated to Switzerland on October 26th, and December 7th remains the provisional end date. And for travelers, tomorrow is the day. It is. From 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 3rd, through December 18th, nearly everyone boarding a flight to the U.S., citizens and crew included, must sign that they haven't been in Congo in the prior 21 days. Passing through a Congo airport counts. CDC says the risk to the American public remains low. Three hundred deaths missing from the tally, and every air traveler to America gets a form.
Dr. Meg Doherty, the World Health Organization's director of science for health, speaking from Congo with NPR's All Things Considered on Friday:
It's hard to give an X date, but I would say we're looking forward to seeing interim results, we hope, sometime in the beginning of 2027, in the new year. And then if that looks promising, afterwards we'll be able to start rolling out vaccines, we would hope, you know, in the next six months or so.
So, an actual timeline. Roughly. Roughly, and hedged twice. Interim results she hopes to see early in 2027, then, if they look promising, a rollout perhaps six months later. This is the Tumaini trial, which vaccinated its first participant in Bunia on October 23rd. It aims to find up to three vaccines that could stop onward infection. Why so long, when an Ebola vaccine already exists? Because the licensed one, Ervebo, targets the Zaire species. Doherty said there's no specific vaccine for Bundibugyo and no approved treatment, so teams rely on supportive care, finding cases and following contacts. Are people even willing to enroll, given the attacks we just talked about? She described something different around the trial. Community members, she said, are already walking in and asking for the vaccine. In a country this large, acceptance in one place and violence in another can both be real. She also said more than 50 people a day are dying from Bundibugyo virus disease. How does this fit with the vaccine money we covered Friday? It comes first. The IAVI candidate funded by BARDA isn't expected to start Phase 1 until early next year, and outside Congo. Tumaini is the nearer path, and even that is months from a readout. For a nurse in Butembo, early 2027 is a long wait. It is. Médecins Sans Frontières said on Monday that Butembo alone recorded 1,472 confirmed cases and 735 deaths between May and October 22nd. Until trial results arrive, isolation, care and contact tracing remain the main tools there.
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Tomorrow is Tuesday, November 3rd. The CDC attestation rule starts just before midnight Eastern, and Kenya's 98 quarantined contacts are due to begin leaving in waves. We'll report on both, and on whether ECDC adopts Congo's revised death count. That's Ebola Watch, one of the Lantern Podcasts. Read the advisory, skip the rumor, and we'll talk tomorrow.