Thirty-six million dollars for a Bundibugyo vaccine that won't reach its first human volunteers until next year. And, a day later, a warning that the vaccine already in use in Congo may be getting harder to come by. This is Ebola Watch, and it's Friday, October 30th. First, Europe's disease agency has new numbers for Congo, plus a contact count in Nigeria that won't sit still. Then, the vaccine money and the vaccine supply. Hit follow and you won't have to come looking for the next episode.
From the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, in its Thursday update:
As of 28 October 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where community transmission is ongoing, has reported a total of 10 193 confirmed cases, including 4 960 related deaths (from data up until 27 October).
So on Thursday we said 10,141. What moved? ECDC counts 52 new confirmed cases and 32 new deaths since its previous Congo update, most in Ituri and North Kivu. That's a case fatality rate among confirmed cases of about 48.7 percent. Fifty-two in a day sounds lower than what we've been hearing. It is, and one day isn't a trend. Africa CDC's Jean Kaseya reported 96 new cases on October 25th alone, per the Congolese Press Agency. ECDC notes Congo's data are under continuous review. And all of this is confirmed. A WHO-based weekly summary lists 557 suspected cases separately. Contact tracing? ECDC now says 85.4 percent of identified contacts are under follow-up, up from 81.6 in its previous update. Still short of Africa CDC's 95 percent bar. Now, Nigeria. You said that count won't sit still. ECDC, citing an October 27th update from Nigeria's disease control centre, says 62 contacts are under follow-up. Yesterday we reported 54 primary contacts, from Nigeria's Guardian. We haven't seen anyone explain whether those are different categories or new names on the list. Eight people is not a rounding error. Which is why we're flagging the gap rather than picking one. The same update says she transited Addis Ababa on her way from Uganda, and that three ECDC experts have been in Nigeria since October 26th. Anything changing for travelers before we're back? On Wednesday, CDC amended the attestation order we covered on October 23rd. MDSpire News reports it now spells out that operating crew and deadheading staff must attest too. It takes effect Tuesday, November 3rd, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern, and runs until December 18th. So the pilots sign the form too.
IAVI, the nonprofit vaccine research organisation, announcing its new US government award on Wednesday:
There are currently no approved vaccines or specific treatments for disease caused by BDBV, and development of a one-dose vaccine with rapid onset of immunity is a major unmet need.
BDBV being Bundibugyo. How much money are we talking? Thirty-six million dollars up front, from BARDA, the American preparedness agency, on a contract worth up to 99 million. It pays for doses for clinical testing and outbreak response, a Phase 1 trial, and an updated version of the candidate matched to this year's variant. Is this a brand-new kind of vaccine? No. Politico reports it uses the same platform as Ervebo, the licensed vaccine for the Zaire species of Ebola. Hilleman Laboratories would make the first doses, and South Korea's SK bioscience and its German subsidiary would handle scale-up and stockpile filling. The question everyone has. When does it reach a nurse in Ituri? Not soon. Politico reports Phase 1 is expected to start early next year, outside Congo, with safety results in the second quarter. IAVI wants it in a ring-vaccination trial in Congo after that. So what's going into arms now is still Ervebo. Under research protocols, yes. The Tumaini trial in Bunia started with it on October 23rd. On Thursday, Médecins Sans Frontières warned that access to Ervebo could be constrained by manufacturing challenges. It wants MSD to send all doses made in the coming months to the global stockpile, and urges high-income countries not to reserve more than they immediately need. Did MSD respond? Not in anything we've seen, and MSF doesn't put a number on the shortfall. So it's a stated concern, not a measured gap. And whether Ervebo protects against Bundibugyo is exactly what these trials are testing. Ninety-nine million for next year's vaccine, and a supply worry about this year's.
If you work near this response, whether that's a clinic, an airline or a school with families travelling home for the holidays, tell us what you're being told. Write to ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com. Your note may point us to the next number worth checking.
We're back Monday, November 2nd. That's the day before the CDC attestation rule takes effect, and the day before Kenya's 98 quarantined contacts are due to start going home in waves. We'll also look for an answer on Nigeria's contact count. Ebola Watch comes to you from Lantern Podcasts. Have a calm weekend, and check the official sources before you check the rumours.