On Friday in Bunia, in eastern Congo, one person was vaccinated. That single shot opened a trial built to answer the question this outbreak has carried since May: can any vaccine protect against the Bundibugyo strain? This is Ebola Watch for Saturday, October 24th. The trial first, then Uganda closing transit to recent Congo travelers as Switzerland disputes its account of Nigeria's patient. If today's show was useful, follow us wherever you're listening — the next one will be waiting.
From the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, a trial partner, quoting Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the vaccine funder CEPI:
There is still no licensed vaccine against Bundibugyo virus, and the cost of that absence is being counted in the DRC every day, in lives lost and in health workers who go to work without protection.
So is this a rollout, or an experiment? An experiment inside the response. Tumaini, Swahili for hope, is a Phase 2/3 trial co-led by Congo's research institute INRB and the University of Antwerp. It measures safety, immune response, and whether a candidate actually prevents disease. Which vaccine goes first? Ervebo, which is licensed against the Zaire species of Ebola, not Bundibugyo. Candidates built for Bundibugyo, from Moderna and from Oxford with the Serum Institute of India, are due to join shortly. Hasn't Ervebo already been going into arms? Under compassionate use, yes. ECDC, citing Africa CDC, puts the total at 13,531 people as of October 21st. That can't show whether it works. This trial can. It uses ring vaccination of high-risk contacts, and includes pregnant women and children. What's it up against? WHO's Disease Outbreak News, published Friday, counts 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths as of October 20th, a crude case fatality ratio of 48.3 percent. Of 482 deaths since WHO's previous update, 307 happened in communities, not treatment centers. And contact follow-up sat at 79.7 percent, against a 95 percent target. And ring vaccination only works if you can find the ring. That's the catch. Meanwhile, Kenya's Director-General for Health, Patrick Amoth, told The Standard that Kenya has requested 10,000 doses for frontline health workers.
From Uganda's Monitor newspaper, reporting Saturday on new Health Ministry measures:
As part of the strict border measures, travellers with a recent history of travel to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will temporarily not be permitted to transit through Uganda.
So Uganda stops being a stopover out of Congo. What else? Director General of Health Services Charles Olaro says locator forms are back for every incoming traveler. He says Nigeria's patient had no symptoms when she left Uganda, and that Uganda remains Ebola-free. And the dispute over where she'd been? It has a new party. Per DW, Switzerland's foreign ministry, which describes her as a Swiss national, told Reuters on Friday she did not travel to Congo, and the Swiss believe she was infected in Uganda. That's not independently confirmed. WHO and Africa CDC say they've received no confirmed information that she was in Congo. Uganda has asked Nigeria for itineraries and sequencing results. And the theory that she and Kenya's first patient crossed paths at Entebbe on October 3rd? Marion Koopmans, a virologist on WHO's Ebola emergency committee, told the Monitor it's very speculative without evidence they shared space. WHO's Kenya representative says no one on that patient's flight, and no airport staff among Kenya's contacts, has been infected. Bottom line: I'm flying to Nairobi or Abuja. Am I at risk? ECDC, Europe's disease agency, rated the risk for EU travelers to affected areas of Kenya and Nigeria as low, with precautions, in an assessment Friday. It doesn't recommend travel restrictions, and neither does WHO, which says Kenya's nine cases remain one cluster. Which leaves them and Washington's new attestation form on rather different pages.
Trying to make sense of an advisory before a trip, or spotted a number you think we got wrong? Send it to ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com, and we may take it up on air.
Our next episode is Monday, October 26th. We'll be looking for the sequencing results Uganda wants from Nigeria, and the run-up to Africa CDC's ministers' meeting on Wednesday the 28th. Ebola Watch is made by Lantern Podcasts. Have a calm weekend, and we'll be back with you Monday.