The question I keep hearing: is Congo's outbreak finally slowing down? Not according to WHO's newest situation report, out Wednesday. After a brief dip, confirmed infections are climbing again. You're listening to Ebola Watch on Thursday, October 22nd. That report first, then Uganda, tightening its screening after two travelers who passed through turned up sick elsewhere.
Shi Yu, reporting for Xinhua from Kinshasa, carried by The Star:
"The most recent seven-day moving average indicates a modest upward trend, suggesting renewed intensification of transmission," the WHO Regional Office for Africa said in the report, highlighting the outbreak's "widening international dimension and the growing complexity."
Modest upward trend. Translate that. From September 29th through October 19th, Congo recorded 1,466 confirmed cases, 10.4 percent more than the three weeks before. Confirmed deaths in that window rose 7.5 percent, to 692. The cumulative count as of the 19th: 9,637 confirmed cases and 4,646 deaths, a case fatality rate near 48 percent. Still mostly Ituri? Per Anadolu Agency's read of the report, Ituri, along the Ugandan border, holds 72.7 percent of confirmed cases. The number I'd circle: of 66 health zones affected since May, 50 reported a new confirmed case in the last 21 days. So most of the map is still live. WHO calls it a critical juncture, citing insecurity, displacement and restricted humanitarian access. Is anyone treating this as a continental problem? Africa CDC says it will convene African health ministers virtually next Wednesday, October 28th. Director General Jean Kaseya says Ebola is crossing borders and the response must move faster. A meeting in a week, at roughly 70 new cases a day. The test afterward is whether what Kaseya says is needed, flexible financing, diagnostics and trained responders, actually reaches the provinces.
Nelson Naturinda, Kampala bureau chief for Nation Media Group, writing in The EastAfrican:
She also said some travellers were deceiving health officials to evade screening. “Some travellers take paracetamol to mask a high temperature, and it is not easy to detect this using temperature scanners,” she said.
Hang on, who's she? Dr. Diana Atwine, Permanent Secretary in Uganda's Health Ministry. Paracetamol is a common over-the-counter fever reducer, so a thermal scanner can miss a sick traveler. So what is Uganda changing? Atwine says relaxed border restrictions will tighten again, the Public Health Act will be enforced against symptomatic travelers from Congo who don't comply, and the ministry will ask the judiciary about instant courts for quarantine violations. It also received new thermal scanners on Tuesday. Why now? Uganda hasn't reported a case since July. Because two people who passed through Uganda were diagnosed elsewhere. According to Atwine, Nigeria's patient had been doing business in eastern Congo and only transited Entebbe. Her words: we don't think that she spread the disease in Uganda. That's Uganda's account. And Nigeria? Nigeria's ministry says it's still establishing the likely source. Uganda says Nigeria hasn't shared her full itinerary and clinical history. Officially, the place of exposure is unresolved. And Kenya's one contact nobody could find? The Daily Nation reports it's a Ugandan national. Kenya's Director-General for Health, Patrick Amoth, says officials know his name, passport number and phone but can't reach him. He suspects the man left by road or an unofficial crossing, and Kenya has contacted Uganda. New scanners, and the person Kenya most wants may have gone around every checkpoint. That's the gap. Kenya's ministry still rates public risk as low. A task force virologist expects monitoring of flight passengers to end around Saturday the 24th, and health workers around Monday the 26th.
If there's a border post or a figure you want us following, or something we got wrong, email ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com.
Friday, we'll check on Abuja's contact list and whether Kenya finds that last contact. Ebola Watch comes to you from Lantern Podcasts. Keep an eye on the official advisories, and we'll talk again tomorrow.