A small step in Tshopo. The question is whether anyone outside the province was watching for it. Some context before today's development: Congo declared an outbreak of Bundibugyo Ebola in mid-May, a strain with no licensed vaccine or treatment. It's since spread to 64 health zones across seven provinces. As of October 6, WHO counted 8,728 confirmed cases and 4,205 deaths, a crude case fatality rate of 48.2%. Some eastern provinces are seeing declines. But the national seven-day average of new confirmed cases has been climbing. This is Ebola Watch. Today we're zooming way in on one province, Tshopo. And what I want to know is whether a bump there is real growth, or just a report catching up. And how much one province can actually tell us. Let's start there. This one's from Agence Congolaise de Presse:
The cumulative number of confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease has risen from 51 to 55 in Tshopo Province, in the northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to the October 8th report of the Provincial Health Division (DPS), reviewed by CPA on Saturday. “The province also has one probable case, 25 recoveries, 23 deaths and six active cases, representing a case fatality rate of 42%,” the report states.
Different corner of Congo today. Tshopo's the province around Kisangani, a good long way west of the Ituri and Uganda-border stretch everyone's been picturing. Its October 8th report has confirmed cases going from 51 to 55. Cera, of those 55, how many people are actually sick right now? Six. The rest is history: 25 recovered, 23 died. That 42% fatality rate is 23 deaths over 55 confirmed, so it covers the whole run in Tshopo, start to finish. And the one probable case sits off to the side, where it belongs. Though for what it's worth, recoveries, deaths and active only add up to 54, so I'd hold the arithmetic loosely. And that's an October 8th report ACP got to on the 11th. Today's the 13th. So is plus-four actual growth, or just the paperwork catching up? Four cases on one date can't tell you that. What catches my eye is the split. Of 37 local cases, only 21 were known contacts. So sixteen people got sick here without being on anyone's list. In an outbreak ACP puts at seven provinces and 64 health zones, I'm not ready to stamp 'declining' on Tshopo. If you're finding Ebola Watch useful, please subscribe and leave a review wherever you're listening. Reviews help other people find the show, and your support helps us keep these daily updates coming.
Links to every story are in the show notes if you'd like to read more about the ones that caught your attention. Thanks for listening, and we'll be back tomorrow. That's Ebola Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.