All week, the word on Congo has been 'declining.' Today's daily average makes me want to hold that word a lot more loosely. New to this story? Here's where it stands. In mid-May, the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of Bundibugyo virus, an Ebola species with no approved vaccine or treatment. It's since reached 64 health zones in seven provinces. DRC authorities report 8,728 confirmed cases and 4,205 deaths as of October 6. Africa CDC recently reported three-week declines in Ituri and North Kivu. It also warned that underreporting persists, and that most deaths happen outside health facilities. You're listening to Ebola Watch. Today we've got a slowdown that may or may not be real, and a vaccine cleared in Uganda. Does that vaccine protect anybody yet? Numbers first. World Health Organization writes:
In the most recent 24-hour period, as of 6 October, 62 new confirmed cases were reported, with Ituri accounting for 33 cases and North Kivu for 30. No new cases were reported in Bas-Uélé, South Kivu or Sud-Ubangi during that period. Across the preceding seven days, the average number of new cases rose to 72 per day.
Africa CDC had cases falling in Ituri and North Kivu. WHO's own count, from the same stretch, has the daily average climbing to 72. Those two can't both be the headline, Cera. They can both be true, which is the uncomfortable part. One day of 62 confirmed cases, 33 in Ituri and 30 in North Kivu, sits under a seven-day average that went up. So I wouldn't lean on yesterday's dip. At least the totals line up now: 8,728 confirmed, 4,205 deaths as of October 6. Okay, map it for me. Nearly every new case is in the northeast corner, the two provinces up against the Ugandan border. And the zeros that day were all over the place, Bas-Uélé up north, South Kivu down by Rwanda, Sud-Ubangi way out west. If I'm nowhere near Ituri, that's good news, right? For one day. Forty-eight of 64 health zones logged a case in the past three weeks, and Alimbongo in North Kivu just joined the list with four confirmed, two dead. WHO also documents gaps in contact follow-up. So a zero from a place that isn't reaching every contact can't tell us much yet. This one's from İLKHA:
A second candidate vaccine developed by Moderna also received ethical approval in Uganda on Oct. 7 to proceed to Phase Ib trials. Its Phase Ia trial began in Canada in early August, according to Mankoula. The development of vaccines specifically targeting Bundibugyo virus is considered critical because no vaccine is currently licensed for Bundibugyo virus disease, unlike the Zaire Ebola virus for which the Ervebo vaccine is licensed.
Vaccine headline out of Kampala, and I want to shrink it before it gets big. Oxford's Bundibugyo shot started Phase Ib in Uganda on October 6, and now Moderna's candidate has cleared ethical review there too, on the 7th. Does either one protect a single person this month? No. Phase Ib asks two things: is it safe, and does the body mount an immune response. It won't tell us whether anyone's actually shielded from infection. So no dose reaches a nurse in Butembo off this news. And the vaccine that does exist, Ervebo, is for a different strain. Zaire, right. WHO says its effectiveness against Bundibugyo in humans is unknown, and it only backs using it here under research protocols. What's real is speed. Oxford went from its UK first-in-human trial in July to Ugandan arms in about three months. Against the case counts we just walked through, that's fast for science and slow for Ituri. Got feedback, a story idea, or a correction? Email us at ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com. Your notes help us make Ebola Watch more useful.
We're watching to see whether Moderna's Bundibugyo vaccine candidate starts enrolling Phase Ib volunteers in Uganda after its October 7 ethical approval. Links to every story are in the show notes, so take a look at the pieces that caught your attention. That's Ebola Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.