Ebola cases are falling in Ituri and North Kivu. And the agency reporting it is the first one telling us not to celebrate. If you're just joining us: Congo's outbreak is the Bundibugyo strain, which has no approved vaccine or treatment. It was declared in mid-May and has grown past 8,600 confirmed cases. Earlier this week, WHO chief Tedros said transmission was falling overall, but new hotspots were popping up near South Sudan. And Africa CDC warned that most new cases were turning up outside known contact lists. This is Ebola Watch. Today: does 'falling' mean fewer sick people, or just fewer people found? Plus, Europe weighs in on who outside Congo should actually worry. Cera, start with the drop. This one's from Xinhua:
On Thursday, Africa CDC reported that confirmed cases had declined by 24 percent in Ituri, the outbreak's epicenter, and 19 percent in North Kivu province over the past three weeks, compared with the previous three-week period. Wessam Mankoula, an Africa CDC official, cautioned that the declines should be interpreted carefully, as insecurity and community resistance continued to hamper surveillance and reporting in several affected areas.
Okay, first number all week that actually points down. Africa CDC says confirmed cases fell 24 percent in Ituri and 19 in North Kivu, comparing the last three weeks with the three before. Plain English, Cera: fewer sick people, or fewer people getting found? Some of each, and nobody can split them apart yet. Africa CDC's Wessam Mankoula said it himself: insecurity and community resistance are hampering surveillance. And 60 to 70 percent of deaths are still happening outside health facilities, so a lot of these cases may never reach a lab. So 'slowing' gets an asterisk. And the totals don't line up either. DRC health authorities, via Xinhua, say 8,728 confirmed and 4,205 deaths as of October 6. Tedros gave us 8,665 and 4,178 yesterday. Different sources, so hold both numbers rather than blending them into one. We've followed this Bundibugyo outbreak since May, and this is the first measured decline, caveats and all. Forty-seven of 64 health zones still have active transmission. And with no strain-specific vaccine, per the Kampala Report, any gains ride on contact tracing that Tedros says still isn't where it needs to be. From European Commission:
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) assesses the infection risk for people living in the EU/EEA to be very low. This is due to transmission of the virus requiring direct contact with a symptomatic patient’s body fluids and the low likelihood of importation and secondary transmission in Europe.
Okay, Europe's disease agency has a word for the 'am I at risk' crowd: very low. For people living in the EU, anyway. And the reason's almost mechanical. You need direct contact with a symptomatic patient's body fluids. Right. And the emergency date on that Commission page is May 17, so treat it as background. The very-low rating doesn't hinge on the Ituri and North Kivu declines we just walked through. Which helps somebody in Lyon. For an American with a flight booked, the U.S. entry ban runs through Sunday, October 11. That's two days out, and nothing in today's material says whether it gets extended or changed. The line I'd underline is further down. There's no licensed vaccine and no specific treatment for Bundibugyo. So there's no dose sitting stuck in a warehouse, because there's no dose, period. In Ituri, protection still comes down to gloves, isolation, and finding contacts. So 'very low' comes with a zip code attached. Yeah. Very low if you live in Europe. If you're working near patients in eastern Congo, that rating's someone else's number. If you're finding Ebola Watch useful, please leave us a review or subscribe wherever you're listening. Reviews help other people find the show, and they help us keep these updates coming.
Links to every story we covered are in the show notes, if you'd like to dig into the ones that caught your attention. Thanks for listening, and we'll be here for the next episode. That's Ebola Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.