Africa CDC just put Congo's contact lists up against what they should be holding. The gap between those two numbers is today's whole story. Here's how we got here. This outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is driven by the Bundibugyo species, and early diagnostic kits couldn't detect it. So transmission ran for months before the May fifteenth declaration. There's still no approved Bundibugyo-specific vaccine or treatment. Cases have eased in Ituri and Haut-Uele, but North Kivu keeps reporting new confirmed cases every day. The outbreak now reaches 63 health zones across seven provinces. You're listening to Ebola Watch. Today we're asking who's actually on those lists, who's slipping past them, and why people in east Congo's hotspot don't trust the response. Cera, walk us through the gap. If this story matters to you — DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak — hit follow. We'll be back on it soon. This one's from ET HealthWorld:
Health authorities battling the Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo have identified only about 30,000 people who may have been exposed to the virus, a fraction of the more than 400,000 expected through contact tracing, a senior African health official told Reuters. Dr. Jean Kaseya, director-general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, said the shortfall showed the outbreak remained entrenched in communities despite signs of progress.
Okay, the number. Africa CDC's Jean Kaseya says Congo should have about four hundred twenty thousand people on contact lists by now. They have thirty thousand. And more than eighty percent of new confirmed cases weren't on any list at all. So the virus is mostly turning up in people nobody was watching. Which changes what the confirmed count means. Roughly seven thousand confirmed cases is what testing has caught. With tracing this thin, actual transmission almost certainly reaches further. In Kaseya's own words: when the outbreak is at community level, you can't talk about control. Then map it. WHO added two health zones Friday: Bulu, in Sud Ubangi, way out west, and Dungu, in Haut-Uele, right up against the South Sudan border. That's sixty-three zones now. If you've got family in the northeast, Dungu's the one you circle. It's a border town, so a temperature check at the crossing is catching whatever tracing missed. Which is a lot. I'd hold off on calling the whole picture worse than we thought. Kaseya also pointed to signs of progress. What he's measured precisely is how blind the surveillance is. And the only fix for that is tracers knocking on doors, which a pledge total alone won't buy. Devdiscourse, with Gradel Muyisa Mumbere and Clement Bonnerot:
"Over the past two weeks, we've seen a very sharp increase," said Stephanie Hoffmann, project coordinator for the international medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in the city. "There are sometimes patients who know they have Ebola but cannot find a bed." City authorities announced the opening of two new treatment centres this week to deal with the demand, bringing the total to four.
Back to Butembo. The capacity crunch at the Kitatumba centre has gotten worse: all 29 beds full this week, and the city's opening two new treatment centres. That makes four. For a city of two million people. I can't make that math feel comfortable. The line from MSF's Stephanie Hoffmann that stays with me is the one about patients who know they have Ebola and can't find a bed. Those are people who came forward. In a place where mistrust is driving spread, that's exactly what you want to reward, and right now some of them are getting turned away. And a ten-year-old boy died in triage on Tuesday, before they could even admit him. Put that next to the contact-tracing numbers we just went through. If you're a family in Butembo and you heard about that, why would you ever call the hotline? Right. So when you hear Congo's figure of 7,820 confirmed cases as of Tuesday, treat it as a floor. Confirmed means tested. Hoffmann's describing a very sharp increase over just two weeks, in a city where a lot of sick people never get anywhere near a test. Got feedback, a story idea, or a correction? Email us at ebolawatch at lantern podcasts dot com. Your notes help make Ebola Watch more useful, so reach out whenever you spot something we should know.
Links to every story are in the show notes, so you can follow up on the ones that caught your attention. Thanks for listening, and take care until the next episode. That's Ebola Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.