PJM blinks, Shapiro puts conditions on the check, and EIA says gas is flat until 2027 — and then it isn’t. AI load just got handed to grid policy, and everybody’s paying at once. Welcome to The Data Center Daily — I’m Cassidy, Matt’s here, and today we’ve got PJM board action, a Pennsylvania governor’s standards framework, an EIA gas forecast that lands right on the AI buildout timeline, a billion-dollar greenfield in Bastrop County, and a thesis piece that finally puts a name on the pattern we’ve been circling all week. The AI Grid Report called it: every region thinks it solved the grid problem, and every region just shoved it somewhere else. So now we get to see whether PJM’s board actually read the memo or just filed it. First up, what did the PJM board actually commit to? Because the press language and the actual commitment are not the same thing. Here's Investors Hangout:
The PJM Board has proposed several key initiatives aimed at addressing the rising challenges of incorporating new large loads, such as data centers, into the existing grid. This adjustment aims not only to enhance the reliability of the system but also to manage the costs for the over 67 million consumers in its service area.
PJM’s board just pushed twelve load-integration proposals toward FERC. That’s the institutional move we’ve been waiting for after the Chamber’s RM26-4-000 filing. ‘Efficient and reliable’ is the press language; I want the capacity figure and the filed rule number, not a stakeholder-engagement victory lap. The board says it’s protecting affordability for sixty-seven million consumers, and in the same breath it’s building a framework for large-load customers to cut the queue. Those are not the same people, and I want to see which one wins when this gets to FERC. Twelve proposals through a stakeholder process is a lot of paper between here and a signed rule. ‘Proposed initiatives’ and ‘immediate changes to policies and procedures’ are doing very different legal work there, and the press release is not bothering to separate them. The AI Grid Report, with Neil Winward:
A month ago I wrote the first recap. The premise was that capital is pouring into AI infrastructure on the assumption that power, transmission, and interconnection are solvable inputs. They aren’t: they are the constraint, and the constraint is neither fully capitalized nor properly priced.
The AI Grid Report dropped its two-month recap Friday, and the thesis is basically one sentence: every region thinks it solved the grid problem, and every region has only relocated it. They’re pointing to a PJM capacity auction that printed at the cap twice, FERC extending the ceiling instead of letting it clear, and a Midwest retirement schedule that wipes out roughly a third of average demand on a replacement timeline the queue can’t meet. The part that stings is that the transferable tax credit market is the policy tool quietly deciding which physical systems actually get financed. Not FERC, not state permitting — the tax credit secondary market. That’s the real queue. And that tracks with what we watched all week — PJM board action, Shapiro’s Pennsylvania standards, EIA’s flat gas forecast. The capital problem didn’t get solved; it just changed zip codes every day. That’s the arc, and the Report names it cleaner than I did. Here's Power Engineering:
But what’s different about next summer? Data centers and manufacturing facilities – and a whole lot of them. The record-high natural gas consumption EIA forecasts for next summer is primarily driven by increasing sales of electricity to the commercial and industrial sectors in the West South Central and Mid-Atlantic regions. New data centers and large manufacturing facilities, mainly in Texas and Virginia, are driving up demand in ERCOT and PJM, respectively.
EIA’s May STEO puts natural gas power-sector consumption at 43.7 billion cubic feet per day this summer — flat with 2025, with renewables covering the 2% demand increase. But 2027 is the number: 46.1 Bcf/d, a 6% jump, a new all-time record, and EIA says the driver outright — data centers and manufacturing, concentrated in the West South Central and Mid-Atlantic. West South Central is Texas. Mid-Atlantic is PJM country. EIA just drew a straight line from the EdgeConneX Bastrop expansion and every hyperscaler campus queued up in PJM to a record natural gas burn in 2027. So when somebody files a ‘clean AI’ PPA in Pennsylvania, I want to know what’s actually on the wire the night that campus goes live. And that’s exactly where Shapiro’s responsible infrastructure standards land — Pennsylvania is conditioning state assistance on developer commitments, which is a real check on the gap between a signed PPA and the marginal electron. The EIA number is the denominator the PPA claim has to clear. Here's Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
The company is building two one-story data center buildings on a nearly 180-acre property at 6682 Farm-to-Market 535 in Bastrop County near Cedar Creek, according to recent filings with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation. The buildings will be about 730,000 square feet and cost roughly $700 million to build, according to the filing, representing an approximately $1.4 billion total investment from the company.
EdgeConneX, based in Virginia, is breaking ground next month on the second of two campuses in Bastrop County. The Star-Telegram has the TDLR filings: two buildings, 730,000 square feet combined, roughly $700 million in construction costs, $1.4 billion total investment, completion target end of 2028. That’s a greenfield buildout with a named developer, a named county, and a dated filing — not a press release number. And the first campus building is set to finish next month, so EdgeConneX is stacking a second campus on top of an active buildout while Texas is still arguing about power and water demand. The $100 million for Bastrop ISD over ten years is real money, but I want to know what the load looks like against the ERCOT queue position, because the electrons have to come from somewhere and EIA just told us gas generation is flat this summer. Worth flagging the deal structure difference here. This week we also covered I Squared closing on Cogent, which is a secondary-market acquisition of already energized assets. EdgeConneX Bastrop is the other side of that coin: new dirt, new permits, new interconnection ask, completion in 2028. Those are not the same risk profile. Northcentralpa.com, with Michael Burkholder:
In order to receive state support, developers must follow the guidelines to demonstrate that their projects will provide real value to local communities; mitigate or offset any impacts on Pennsylvanians; and are being developed responsibly. GRID standards set expectations for developers seeking support from the Commonwealth including coordinated project support through the Office of Transformation and Opportunity, greater speed and certainty in permitting, and access to state tax incentives.
Shapiro’s GRID Standards — Governor’s Responsible Infrastructure Development, yes, that acronym is doing a lot of work — condition state tax incentives and expedited permitting on developers demonstrating community value and impact mitigation. That’s not a press release promise. That’s a transactional instrument: you want the benefit, you clear the bar. And Amazon’s 960 MW SMR commitment in Pennsylvania is sitting right underneath this framework. I want to know whether that deal was scoped before the GRID Standards landed, because if it was, does it grandfather out of the accountability criteria, or does Shapiro’s office actually run it through the checklist? The mechanism here is structurally different from what we watched at the county level all week — Pulaski’s ban, Franklin’s self-sufficiency mandate. Those are exclusionary. Shapiro’s framework is conditional. It’s a carrot with teeth, which is a different regulatory instrument entirely, and the first state-level move this week that pairs both sides of the ledger. If you follow AI infrastructure, you may also like Musk v Altman Daily, a daily court-watch on Elon Musk’s trial against Sam Altman, OpenAI, and Microsoft, covering testimony, exhibits, and the AGI governance fight. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts.
You’ll find links to every story we covered today in the show notes. If something caught your ear, that’s the place to dig a little deeper.
That’s The Data Center Daily for Monday, June 1st. Thanks for listening. This is a Lantern Podcast.