Newsom signed a $352 billion budget on his way out the door — and every new tax in it is now Becerra's problem, in writing. This is the California Governor's Race. Today: Newsom's legacy budget becomes law, the first aggregated poll number drops, and a federal probe shadows the man everyone's been orbiting. And whoever wins in November is legally on the hook if this goes sideways. Let's start there. One tap on follow, and we'll be back in your ears before you know it. From Sophie Austin at SFGATE:
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a nearly $352 billion spending plan Monday that delays some cuts to healthcare programs, increases funding for childcare and sets aside money to help speed up the state's vote count ahead of the November election. The plan, which avoids major cuts or significant new spending, is Newsom's last before he leaves office in January and as he considers a presidential run.
So it's done. Newsom signed the $352 billion plan Monday — one of the biggest state budgets in the country — and turned the signing into a highlight reel of his eight years. Here's the part that matters for this race: the managed-care tax, the software levy — the stuff Becerra and Hilton kept treating like hypotheticals? They're statute now. Becerra inherits them whether he likes it or not. And remember, this is the budget built on AI-revenue projections I called a phantom number two days ago. Well — it's law now. Whoever wins in November has to own the downside, not Newsom. He's out the door in January. “Avoids major cuts or significant new spending” — that's the framing. What it actually does is delay healthcare cuts. Delay. Somebody's paying that bill later, and it isn't Gavin. It's a legacy video and a delayed cut. Free school meals, minimum wage, renewables — great b-roll for an Iowa launch. The fiscal fine print belongs to the next governor. This one comes via 270toWin. First aggregated general-election number in this race: 270toWin has Becerra at 55, Hilton at 32. That's our baseline heading toward November. Baseline with an asterisk, though — it's an average of two polls, and one of them is Kreate Strategies, which is Hilton-adjacent, putting him at 33. The Berkeley IGS number is the one with an 8,500-person sample. A 23-point spread and everybody exhales like it's over. I'm not exhaling. Early leads in California governor races have collapsed before, and this coalition hasn't been tested against actual turnout math. And look at what's under the hood — Becerra's institutional money hates the taxes his base voters like. A 55 can hide that kind of fracture until November starts squeezing it. Put that next to the budget Newsom just signed. Becerra now inherits the managed-care tax, the software levy — all of it statute, not a talking point. That 55 was polled before he had to defend it as his own. Right, and the $180 million Newsom machine that got him to 55 is now attached to a governor under federal investigation. That asset can turn into a liability fast — the poll doesn't price that in yet. California doesn't run separate party primaries the way most states do — so back me up: how did this system get us to Becerra versus Hilton in November, and what happens to everybody who wanted someone else? Right. California uses what's called a top-two, or 'jungle primary.' Everybody, from every party, runs on the same June ballot, and only the top two finishers move on to November, no matter what party they're in. Per CalMatters, it came out of a 2009 budget deal brokered by Republican state senator Abel Maldonado, pitched as a way to help more moderate candidates survive. Fast-forward to the June 2 primary: Xavier Becerra — former state attorney general and the Democratic frontrunner — got nearly 27% of the vote, per CalMatters. Steve Hilton, the Trump-backed Republican, former Fox News host, and British political operative, took the second slot. And there really was drama here. Early polling raised the possibility of two Republicans advancing in deep-blue California. Per the Public Policy Institute of California, Democratic party leaders were alarmed enough that a consultant floated a ballot measure literally called 'Undo the Top-Two.' Democrat Tom Steyer finished third, around 20%, and he's out. So his voters, plus anyone who backed one of the other four major candidates, don't have their preferred choice in November. So this was supposed to produce more moderate general elections — but in practice, didn't we just end up with the conventional partisan matchup anyway? That's exactly the tension CalMatters points to. Voters approved top-two to encourage moderation, but most of the time it still spits out a standard Democrat-versus-Republican November race. In a state as blue as California, that makes the outcome pretty predictable. Now the near-miss — that two-Republican scenario — is what could give 'Undo the Top-Two' some real energy. So yes, watch Becerra versus Hilton, but also watch whether the rules themselves become the fight. From Jon Fleischman at Ceres Courier:
But Hilton’s success in advancing to the general election was not just the result of a good campaign. It was also the result of large numbers of conservatives making a difficult strategic decision forced upon them by California’s deeply flawed top-two primary system.
Fleischman's basically admitting the quiet part in the Ceres Courier — Hilton's advance wasn't pure organic Republican enthusiasm. Conservatives made a cold strategic call under the top-two system to consolidate behind one guy. It's a Republican operative writing this, which — fine, at least he's honest about the incentive. Prop 14 pushes GOP voters to game who can survive, not just vote for who they actually want. And here's the turnout-math piece nobody's connecting to that 270toWin number we just walked through. If Hilton advanced on consolidation and not raw enthusiasm, then Becerra at 55 to Hilton's 32 might be even softer for Hilton than that ceiling makes it look. Or firmer. Consolidated conservatives are motivated conservatives. Fleischman also drops that Rusty Hicks — the state Democratic chair — actually warned Democrats might split and hand two Republicans the general. He and Carl DeMaio never bought it. Which tells you how nervous the machine was. A party with a 23-point lead locked in does not act like that. Here's Dan Walters at Mountain Democrat:
Gov. Gavin Newsom recently revealed in a video and a social media post that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, framing it as a political attack by President Donald Trump. “Donald Trump isn’t just coming after me because of my mean tweets,” Newsom said. “He’s coming after me because I am considering running for president.”
So Dan Walters, writing in the Mountain Democrat, lays it out: the DOJ is looking at Newsom and Jennifer Siebel Newsom, and Newsom's framing it as Trump coming after him because — his words — he's considering running for president. Set the framing aside. The disclosure is the newsy part: Newsom's own filings show $4.3 million solicited toward Siebel Newsom's organizations. That's the paper trail, and that's what an inquiry into the Representation Project and Girls Club Entertainment actually touches. Here's what I'm chewing on. Same week he signs a $352 billion budget and walks off stage as the legacy guy — a federal probe surfaces. Timing's brutal. And think about Becerra. His single biggest asset is the Newsom machine — the $180 million infrastructure, the donor stack. If Newsom goes radioactive, that asset flips to a liability overnight. You don't get to keep the money and drop the man. Careful, though — off-the-record sources verifying an inquiry do not mean charges are coming. Walters is clear there's no official confirmation. Keep the label precise: inquiry underway, no indictment. If you're tracking California's governor's race, try Midterms 2026 Daily — Senate, House, and governors' races every weekday, with polling moves, ad spend, and the one chart that mattered today. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts.
What we're watching next: the Becerra-Hilton general election is scheduled for November 3.
You'll find links to every story we covered today in the show notes, so if one caught your ear, you can go straight to the original reporting from there.
That's California Governor's Race for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.