Six days after the primary, nearly 60 percent counted, and California's still waiting — but the Becerra-Hilton matchup is basically set. This is the California Governor's Race. Today, we're done just recapping the horse race — we're asking what the system produced, and what a Becerra win would mean in a state that's nearly 40 percent Latino. And CalMatters finally dropped the top-two postmortem. The question I've been hammering since June 5 — what was the point of all this? — now has some reporting to push against. We'll get to whether the count itself is becoming an embarrassment. First, the milestone. Adam, you've got a number now. Nearly 40 percent Latino, and still no Latino governor elected in the modern era. There's a turnout and registration gap with real math underneath — not just a feel-good headline. And here's where it gets uncomfortable for the Becerra coalition. Per PPIC, his support skews toward households hit by price increases and inherited Swalwell voters. So if the milestone arrives, is it because of that 40 percent, or because of a coalition that doesn't really look like it? Right — you can make history for a community while your actual base is a different electorate entirely. The KQED piece flags the paradox; nobody's answered the harder piece: who's funding him, and who would he actually govern for? That gap is the accountability story in KQED's piece. The symbolism's obvious; by November, I want Becerra's people answering the harder question. On to CalMatters. The top-two system was sold in 2009 — Maldonado, budget crisis — as the thing that would force moderation. And the verdict is? The verdict, per their reporting, is that most top-two races still end up as a standard Democrat-versus-Republican general anyway. Which is exactly what we got. So the reform that promised to break partisan matchups handed us a partisan matchup. And now there's a ballot measure literally called 'Undo the Top-Two' waiting in the wings. So does this cycle's failure to deliver moderation finally give the repeal crowd the political momentum they've been missing? And Hilton's the test case. The whole theory was that top-two would pull candidates toward decline-to-state voters. His ceiling with those voters is where we find out if that theory ever held. Last thing — the count. Today's the 8th. The primary was the 2nd. Sixty percent in. Look, the late mail trend is hardening, Steyer's stuck in third — I'll give the slow-count caveat one more honest airing. But the numbers already point one way. My sharper version: how long before an unclosed margin hands Hilton's November operation an oppo asset? The Chronicle's DiNatale framing earns a tougher follow-up now — this is starting to look like an indictment of how California runs its elections. Six days, ballots still sitting in trays, and we're calling a structural matchup from it. That's a fair point to end on — and an uncomfortable one. From Yahoo News Canada:
Californians are still waiting for the outcome of the closely watched June 2 gubernatorial primary, with state election officials continuing to count ballots. Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra are currently on top, while fellow Democrat Tom Steyer remains in third with nearly 60% of the votes counted. Only the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, in the Golden State's nonpartisan " jungle primary" advance to the general election in November.
Six days later, nearly 60 percent counted, and Secretary Weber is still telling Californians to be patient. Give that enough time, and campaigns start turning 'be patient' into a weapon. And right on cue, Trump's posting that Democrats are 'stealing the vote' — no proof, naturally. That's what an open margin buys you: a vacuum somebody fills with nonsense. Becerra and Hilton are on top, Steyer's stuck in third. The matchup's effectively set — now the story is how the count is being run. Here's my line, though — at 60 percent, the trend's holding, but I'm not calling Becerra's final margin yet. Late mail tilts, and that number's what Hilton's November shop builds its turnout math against. 316 million dollars, per AdImpact — most expensive governor's race on record, and the count won't even close cleanly. You can buy the airwaves; you still can't buy a faster envelope. California is nearly 40 percent Latino and still has never elected a Latino governor. How is that possible? And if Becerra pulls this off, does it change anything beyond the symbolism? Yeah, it's a real paradox, and the history makes it even sharper. California has the largest Latino population of any state, but it still hasn't elected a Latino governor in the modern era. And this primary had two prominent Latino candidates, Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, which is unusual on its own. Becerra's path has been built on what KQED describes as a broad working-class coalition. His political roots go back to 1992, when he won his first congressional race in Los Angeles with heavy backing from Latino community supporters; at the time, he said grassroots organizing mattered more than, quote, 'heavy dollars.' Now, more than 30 years later, per CalMatters, he's advancing to the November general election running explicitly on his experience taking on the Trump administration. So the milestone would carry weight beyond optics, because the governor runs a huge policy apparatus — wildfire response, housing, state-level immigration enforcement priorities — all issues that hit Latino communities across California especially hard. But if his record as attorney general is drawing criticism from the left on policing and housing, do Latino voters actually see him as their champion — or is the milestone more about the title than the politics? Yeah, that's the tension. KQED notes that critics say his AG record was less progressive on policing and Big Oil than his national profile suggests. So the coalition behind him is part representation, part pragmatism in a chaotic field. In the general, watch whether Becerra can hold that working-class Latino base while defending a record progressive voters have already started picking apart. This one's from SF Gate:
For all the talk of a governor's race between two Republicans, or even two Democrats, it's looking like voters are in for a typical partisan matchup in November. In predictably Democratic California, there's no need for a political science degree or a crystal ball to confidently predict the result of a general election face-off between Xavier Becerra, the current Democratic front-runner, and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican.
CalMatters puts it pretty plainly today: the top-two primary was sold back in 2009 as the system that would push candidates toward the center — and we got Becerra versus Steve Hilton. A Democrat and a Republican. The most conventional matchup you could draw up. Right, and the number that explains it is sitting right there — Democrats outnumber registered Republicans almost two-to-one. You don't get two Democrats on the November ballot when one party owns the registration. The reform was fighting math the whole time. That's why the 'Undo the Top-Two' measure we flagged a few days back suddenly has some wind behind it. The system promised moderation; this cycle handed us a standard partisan general. That's the political opening repeal advocates have been waiting for. Although — careful what you wish for. The one place the theory still gets a real test is Hilton's ceiling with decline-to-state voters. If top-two was ever going to drag anybody to the center, that's the race to watch in November, not this primary postmortem. If you're tracking California's governor's race, you may also like Los Angeles Politics and Urbanism Daily: City Hall, housing abundance, homelessness response, Metro, public safety, and small-business permitting. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts.
You'll find links to every story we covered today in the show notes, so if one of them caught your ear, you can take a closer look there. That's California Governor's Race for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.