CalMatters has Becerra and Hilton out front — so the polling split we were watching all week finally got a verdict, and Steyer's $195 million just got a very public grade. This is California Governor's Race. The jungle primary is closed, the receipts are in, and the San Mateo Daily Journal drops its full donor map today — so now we stop guessing who backed whom and start reading the names. ABC7 calls it the most expensive governor's race on record, and if Steyer finishes third, that is the headline on every future 'can you buy a primary' argument. We've been arguing about the Trump endorsement all spring — ceiling or floor. Hilton ahead of Steyer is the answer, and it is not subtle. Here's Jeanne Kuang at CalMatters:
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton were leading in the race for California governor in early returns Tuesday night, a nailbiter befitting the most unsettled gubernatorial race in recent memory. The two were neck-and-neck after about half the votes were counted statewide.It could be days or weeks before votes are completely tallied.
CalMatters has Becerra and Hilton leading in early returns — Steyer's sitting around twenty percent with about half the votes counted. That lines up with the Emerson-versus-Berkeley IGS split we were tracking all week; the poll that had Hilton in second looks closer. The top-two cliffhanger has moved from polling to returns — Becerra and Hilton ahead, Steyer chasing. And let's just say it plainly: $195 million, most expensive governor's race on record per ABC7, and Steyer is at twenty points. That ROI ledger is ugly. Becerra called it an 'underdog story' — and honestly, that checks out. Three months ago he was polling low enough to get knocked off the debate stage. That's a real climb. So the Trump endorsement clearly gave Hilton a floor — not a ceiling story anymore, a floor story, answered. And that Kalshi seventy-four percent on Becerra that came with the thirty-nine-thousand-dollar check? The market saw it. Next ledger to open is the general-election donor map. San Mateo Daily Journal writes:
Outside groups, which unlike candidates can receive unlimited donations, reported spending $79 million so far — more than double the amount spent through the November 2018 general election when Gavin Newsom won his first term. Billionaire Tom Steyer is the biggest target: A political spending committee called California Is Not For Sale, funded by the state Realtors association, the California Chamber of Commerce, Pacific Gas and Electric and the state’s electrical workers’ union poured $32 million into ads opposing him.
CalMatters, via the San Mateo Daily Journal, drops the finance autopsy today — and the number that jumps out isn't Steyer's $195 million, it's the $32 million that went the other way, straight at him. PG&E, the Realtors, the Chamber, the electrical workers' union — all in one committee called California Is Not For Sale. And outside groups overall hit $79 million — more than double what was spent through the entire 2018 general when Newsom won his first term. So ABC7's 'most expensive on record' label has a very specific engine behind it: it isn't just Steyer writing checks, it's the institutional money lining up against him at a scale this primary has never seen. Which, given where CalMatters has the race this morning — Becerra and Hilton leading, Steyer apparently outside the top two — means that $32 million in opposition spend did its job. The PG&E thread we kept talking about all week just got a price tag and an outcome. I spent the week saying Steyer's spend wasn't a punchline — so I'll score it straight: $195 million of his own money, $32 million in coordinated opposition, and he's third. Right now, the anti-Steyer coalition looks like a much better investment than Steyer did. Newsweek, with Sam Stevenson:
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton’s bid to become California governor has received a high-profile boost from President Donald Trump—but new data suggests the Republican candidate still faces a steep climb as voters head to the polls. Trump reinforced that backing in a fresh post on Tuesday, urging Californians to “vote today” for Hilton and saying he would work with the federal government to “make California great again.”
Newsweek's Sam Stevenson piece gives us the Hilton split-screen we've been circling all week — Trump posted a vote-today push on Election Day itself, and the prediction markets had Hilton in decent shape to get through the top two, but trailing Becerra badly on November odds. CalMatters' early returns back that up: he probably makes it through, but the general is a different ledger. That Polymarket split is the clean answer to the endorsement debate — Trump put a floor under Hilton's primary number, and that held, but the November market is basically pricing in Becerra already. The endorsement did one job, and only one job. That closes the question we opened on May 29th — ceiling versus floor. The floor held. The ceiling is exactly where the skeptics said it was. And if Steyer is sitting in third with a hundred and ninety-five million spent, then the Trump endorsement delivered more structural value per dollar than anything Steyer bought — that's the ROI ledger CalMatters and ABC7 just opened for us. Hannah Wiley, writing in SF Standard:
The end result: Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has surged to the top of the pack after initially trailing in most polls to become the most likely candidate to advance to the Nov. 3 general election. Duking it out for the second slot are Steve Hilton, a Republican former Fox News host, and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, who has dumped more than$210 million of his own fortune into the contest.
The SF Standard's Hannah Wiley called it the 'WTF' primary — and honestly, that label earns its keep. Sixty-one candidates down to three, a front-runner collapse in April, and then a late Becerra surge most polls didn't catch until recently. And now we get to score the ledger. Steyer put north of two hundred ten million dollars in — that number just went up from the one-ninety-five we'd been using all week — and CalMatters has him behind Hilton for second. That's the ROI question answered in the worst possible way for Steyer. The Trump-Hilton thread we started back in late April closes tonight too. Hilton ahead of Steyer in the early returns isn't a ceiling story — it's a floor story. The endorsement held structural value through the jungle primary, full stop. I'll score it honestly: I spent time defending the Steyer spend as 'not a punchline.' If Hilton holds second with a fraction of that budget, then the money moved something — just not enough. That's not a punchline, but it's close. ABC7 Los Angeles, with Mónica De Anda, Tim Caputo:
Voters will choose from an extensive field of candidates hoping to replace termed-out Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. The top two finishers advance to the November runoff. About 60 candidates were on the ballot, most of them largely unknown to the state's roughly 23 million voters.
ABC7 had the denominator we'd been waiting for all week — 'most expensive governor's race on record.' Sixty-plus candidates, three who mattered, and now the bill has a superlative attached to it. Record spend, record field size, and if CalMatters has it right with Becerra and Hilton leading, Steyer's $195 million bought him third. That's not a talking point — that's the ROI ledger closing. Worth noting: the Trump-endorsement question we've been running since late April looks like it got answered tonight too. Hilton holding second ahead of Steyer means the endorsement had structural floor value, not just a ceiling — that's a real result, not a poll. I spent days saying Steyer's spend wasn't a punchline — I'll score it straight. If the most expensive race on record still couldn't lift him past a guy whose main asset was a presidential tweet, something broke in the money-to-votes conversion. If you’re tracking California politics, try San Francisco Politics and Urbanism Daily — covering City Hall, Muni, housing abundance, public safety, schools, and small-business permitting. It’s a sharp local lens on the issues shaping statewide debates, wherever you listen to podcasts.
You’ll find links to all of today’s stories in the show notes. If one of them stuck with you, that’s the place to dig in a little deeper.
That’s California Governor’s Race for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.