California’s governor’s race is heading into mailbox season in a fog. Ballots are about to land, and honestly, the field still feels nowhere near settled.
This is California Governor's Race. Today: the newest poll, a messy TV debate, Tom Steyer’s wealth-war pitch, and Matt Mahan’s play for moderates.
Okay. Let’s clear some of that fog.
Yeah — let’s start with the numbers.
From Anabel Sosa at SFGATE:
The most recent poll of the California governor’s race shows that Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general, is one of two leading Democrats in the race after an April surge. The poll, published Monday by CBS and YouGov, asked likely voters dozens of questions about their feelings on the race, including which gubernatorial candidate they’re most likely to vote for and their opinions on major state and national issues.
Becerra showing up here matters. This race is still a name-ID fight, and he’s got the “familiar Democrat” advantage — but now he has to turn that into an actual lane before this field crowds him out.
And then there was the debate. From Michael R. Blood and Sophie Austin at the Associated Press:
Eight candidates vying for the California governor faced off in a televised debate, which was marked by interruptions and verbal disputes. The unruly format highlighted the instability in the race, which has no clear leader due to mail ballots going to voters within weeks of the election.
That’s rough for voters. Ballots are almost here, and the race still sounds like a group chat where nobody can find the mute button. California may start choosing a governor before the field ever really comes into focus.
Over on Reddit, one commenter in r/California was watching Steyer closely:
The Steyer push on Reddit is insane. How is no one seeing he’s a wolf in sheep clothing? He immediately got chummy with Bianco after the debate. Are you all blind???
You can hear the suspicion there. When a billionaire runs as the anti-billionaire, every post-debate handshake turns into forensic evidence. But being cordial with Chad Bianco is not exactly a secret platform plank. The harder test is whether Steyer’s tax promises survive contact with the details.
Here’s the AP framing that was posted in r/California:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer is selling himself as a class traitor in his bid for California governor. The Democrat with a personal fortune estimated at $2.4 billion wants wealthy people and corporations to pay higher taxes. He’s endorsed by a progressive advocacy group that believes billionaires shouldn’t exist.
That is an extremely California contradiction: a billionaire running against billionaires, with enough money behind him to make people ask whether the anti-wealth message is conviction, branding, or both.
Another r/California commenter boiled down their choices this way:
Him and Porter are the only options imo.
Fuck the tech bro, fuck PG&E’s buddy.
That’s the online primary in one blast: Porter and Steyer as the acceptable populists, everybody else turned into a donor-class nickname. I get the frustration. But California voters are going to need more than archetypes when the next governor is walking into housing, insurance, and budget problems all at once.
Another commenter was a lot more skeptical:
Yeah, I stopped trusting billionaires a while ago. It takes a special type of psychopath to want to hoard that much money for themself. You don't get there by being a nice person.
The distrust is not coming out of nowhere. Nobody becomes a billionaire by accidentally finding loose change in the couch. But for Steyer, the real test is concrete: would he raise taxes on people like himself, appoint regulators who make capital nervous, and keep going when his own class starts screaming?
And one more r/California commenter put the focus back on the campaign itself:
Hopefully if he wins, he truly does. I'm not holding my breath though. His entire campaign is a lot like Trump's. He says things he thinks will get him votes with no real plan to do it. The fact he's spent 300-400m on this campaign is also worrying.
The spending anxiety is real. Self-funding can make a campaign feel less like a movement and more like a very expensive solo project. The Trump comparison is probably too easy, but the demand for a real plan is fair: “tax billionaires” is a slogan until the ballot measure, rates, exemptions, and votes are actually nailed down.
Now to Matt Mahan. From David J. Bohnet at City Times:
Ballots for the 2026 California Congressional, State and Primary Election will begin to appear in mailboxes of Californians after May 4, when the open voting window runs until June 2. On this year’s ballot, San Diegans will have a wide range of candidates to choose from for governor — but few have a recent record in public service like Democratic candidate Matt Mahan.
Mahan’s pitch is basically competence over celebrity: mayoral record, moderate lane, Silicon Valley money. The challenge is speed. Can that travel statewide before voters lock in on better-known names?
You’ll find links to every story we covered today in the show notes. If one caught your ear, they’re there when you want to dig in.
That’s California Governor’s Race for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.