SpaceX has a lock-up problem, and the stock's already voting. Quick catch-up before we dig in: SpaceX went public at $135, opened at $150, then rallied above $200 before losing more than half its value from the June peak. Its first post-IPO earnings showed second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up from $4.1 billion a year earlier, with Starlink and AI growth offsetting heavy capital spending. This is AI IPO Watch. SpaceX posted a blockbuster quarter just as insider shares started unlocking. And it's making a very expensive promise to catch Starship out of the sky. Business Matters, with Amy Ingham:
The stock rose in the first few days after the initial public offering, temporarily making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. SpaceX has since lost more than $1 trillion in market capitalisation, and in July the shares fell below their $135 float price for the first time, leaving UK retail investors who put £271 million into the offering nursing paper losses.
SpaceX beat revenue estimates—$7.8 billion versus $6.8 billion expected—and still spent $18.4 billion in one quarter. Those frontier programs are chewing through more than twice the revenue base, and the company is still $541 million in the red. And Starlink is doing the work: $4.3 billion of the $7.8 billion, with 12 million subscribers. Fine. But the earnings release puts a hard number next to the sales pitch that Starlink can comfortably bankroll AI and rockets: capex is 2.4 times total revenue. The lock-up overhang is now running into its first earnings print. Shares were $116.77 after hours, below the $135 float price, and UK retail buyers who put £271 million into the deal are already sitting on paper losses. That 92% revenue growth is real. So is a $1.7 trillion valuation on a company spending $18.4 billion a quarter. The market can admire the growth and still ask how long it can keep giving that spending a pass. Seeking Alpha writes:
Starlink remains SPCX’s profit engine, while AI and Space segments are high-growth but loss-making, raising concerns about sustainability and capital allocation. SPCX’s $18.4B quarterly capex—2.4x revenue—was partially offset by $14.1B in new AI compute contracts, yet future margin realization remains uncertain. With 911.5M insider shares unlocking in this week and an EV/sales multiple of ~38x, I rate SPCX a Hold, pending capex moderation and AI margin improvement.
The 92% revenue jump is impressive. But $18.4 billion in quarterly capex against $7.8 billion in revenue is hard to get past—Starlink is generating the cash, and the frontier projects are burning through it at a breathtaking rate. And the filing says the spending is nowhere near done. The roadshow pitch was Starlink profits funding AI. In the filing, capex comes to 2.4 times revenue, even after $14.1 billion in new AI compute contracts. Now add 911.5 million insider shares unlocking this week, with SPCX already below its $135 float price. At roughly 38 times EV-to-sales, that puts the stock under real pressure—and UK retail is already sitting on losses from £271 million of IPO buying. A historic beat doesn't suspend supply and demand. Retail got the float, and now insiders get the unlock. Meanwhile, the cash burn sits right beside the revenue number. From The Next Web:
SpaceX wants to catch a skyscraper falling out of the sky. The company plans to launch its next Starship as soon as this month and, for the first time, try to catch the returning upper stage with the giant robotic arms on its launch tower. Elon Musk laid out the plan on SpaceX’s first earnings call since its public listing, three months after a Starship V3 booster exploded just before that listing.
Flight 14 could put Starlink V3 satellites into operational orbit and try to catch the upper stage with the tower arms. That's one heck of a sales slide for a first post-listing earnings call—especially while you're defending enormous spending. It'd be a real milestone if they pull it off. SpaceX has caught the Super Heavy booster three times. The Ship has never made that catch, and cutting landing-gear weight could materially change the reuse economics. Sure—but the valuation leans hard on that “could.” The prior flight's heat shield survived re-entry, Musk says the problem's solved, and now the market gets a skyscraper-sized precision stunt before August is out. The stock is being asked to price in a successful robotic-arm catch before it happens. Fine, but keep the operating milestone separate from the claim that it pays for the rest of the program. If you're enjoying AI IPO Watch, please subscribe and leave us a review wherever you're listening. It helps other people find the show, and your support keeps us bringing you the latest in AI and markets.
Looking ahead, Flight 14 could fly before the end of August, pending regulatory approval. SpaceX is aiming to catch the returning Starship upper stage for the first time.
Links to every story are in the show notes. Take a look at whichever pieces caught your attention. That's AI IPO Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.