SpaceX has a lockup clock ticking two days after earnings — while three Chinese robot makers elbow each other toward Hong Kong. Busy Monday. For anyone just joining us mid-arc, here's the short version: SpaceX came public at 135 a share, opened at 150, briefly traded above 200 — then slipped back below the IPO price. That reversal turned the debut euphoria into a real public-market test of valuation, fundamentals, and spending discipline. Its first quarterly earnings report lands August 4th. This is AI IPO Watch. Today: what happens when pre-IPO sellers get the green light, and whether Hong Kong can stomach a humanoid robot pileup. AgiBot just put a number on the table — let's start there. Here's Nicolas Owens at Morningstar:
SpaceX may be reporting its first earnings as a public company on August 4, but an equally significant event happens just two business days later. That’s when pre-IPO investors will have their chance to sell nearly a billion shares of stock—far more than was sold when the company went public.
So all week, we've been circling August 4th as the stress test — first earnings as a public company. Turns out earnings might be the warm-up act. Morningstar's got another date pinned right behind it. And we've got this one in writing. The lockup mechanics are set — nearly a billion shares become eligible for sale a couple of business days after that report. The IPO itself only floated 629 million. Remember, this stock already broke below its issue price. Now Morningstar's telling you more than six billion shares could roll off over the next year. Call that a spigot. And here's the part that stings for the retail crowd — they bought in at the IPO with dual-class shares, no control, just participation. That lockup wave is when they find out what that participation is actually worth in the secondary market. From BAE IN SUN at Aju Press:
According to reports from Chinese economic media outlet Caixin on July 27, Aizhibot has already initiated the listing process and aims to debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange next month. The company's post-IPO valuation is expected to reach up to 50 billion Hong Kong dollars (approximately 9.36 trillion won).
Aizhibot says it could list as early as next month in Hong Kong, with Unitree right behind. Two humanoid robot names sprinting toward the same bell. And they're sprinting into the same market where Zhipu just fell sixty percent from its peak. Same venue, same week. Right — the fresh wreckage hasn't cleared the field. It's just giving whoever lists first another reason to hurry before the window closes. That's what gets me. Aizhibot and Unitree are already lined up, and we've still got a third name coming this hour. Three robotics IPOs, all headed for one listing venue that's already shown it can't absorb this kind of supply without repricing hard. And this is a market that prices the story, not the shipment numbers. The first one to ring the bell sets the comp for the other two — good luck if you're second in line and the narrative's already cracked. So the pitch to a market that just got burned is: trust us on the robots, and reward whoever gets there fastest. I'd want the unit economics before the ambition. This one's from Crypto Briefing:
AgiBot, a Shanghai-based humanoid robot manufacturer, officially began its Hong Kong IPO process on July 24, 2026, according to a report from Securities Times, a Chinese state-backed financial publication. The company is targeting a valuation between HK$40 billion and HK$50 billion, which works out to roughly $5.1 billion to $6.4 billion at current exchange rates.
Finally, an actual syndicate. Citic Securities and CICC are leading AgiBot's Hong Kong push alongside Morgan Stanley. Two Chinese state-adjacent banks, plus one bulge-bracket. That mix tells you exactly who they're hoping shows up to the book. And Morgan Stanley's seat is the tell, Cassidy. You bring them in to sell Western institutions on Chinese AI paper right now — so you're pricing in a geopolitical discount before the roadshow even opens. The HK$40 to 50 billion target — call it five-one to six-four billion dollars — comes from the process kick-off, per Securities Times. They're still at the starting gun; nothing's been priced yet. Big difference. For a company that's only three years old and shipped its first fifteen thousand units last month. Tencent and Hillhouse are on the cap table, along with BYD — the capital flooded in fast, and now the exit clock's ticking. And it lands right after that Aizhibot-Unitree race we just hit — three robotics names crowding the same Hong Kong venue where Z.AI just bled three hundred billion Hong Kong dollars in two sessions. The supply's piling up faster than the market can price it. That's why the state-bank pairing matters. Citic and CICC can anchor a domestic book if the cross-border demand gets skittish — which, given that Z.AI wreckage, it absolutely might. Have feedback, story ideas, or a correction? Email us at aiipowatch at lantern podcasts dot com. We’d love to hear from you.
Looking ahead: SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4. Two business days later, most pre-IPO investors become eligible to begin selling shares. And Aizhibot is targeting a Hong Kong Stock Exchange debut next month.
You’ll find links to every story in the show notes if you’d like to dig deeper.
That’s AI IPO Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.